The 108th Coupe de France final kicks off on Friday. Lens arrive in good form, while Nice have their eyes already set on a relegation play-off.
| 2026 Coupe de France final | Odds |
|---|---|
| Lens to win & BTTS - Yes | 3.25 |
| Lens to score Over 2.5 total goals | 2.70 |
| Florian Thauvin to score anytime | 2.62 |
All odds are courtesy of bet365, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
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A Coupe de France final like no other - the context that changes everything
Nice finished 16th in Ligue 1 following a goalless draw against relegated Metz on the final day. Supporters from the Ultras Populaire Sud section entered the Allianz Riviera pitch following the full‑time whistle. Given the outcome of the match, they must compete in a two‑legged relegation playoff against Saint‑Etienne, who finished third in Ligue 2.
The fixture arrives just four days after the Coupe de France final. The club, which started the season in the Europa League, are now fighting to maintain their first-division status.
Club president Jean‑Pierre Rivere did not hide the truth, though his comments may be a part of his tactics. “The Coupe de France is not a priority,” he stated in his latest interview. “The most important thing is to stay in Ligue 1.”
Those statements were highly surprising. A club president openly devalued a national final days before the match. However, given Nice have avoided playing in the second division since 2002/03, does it carry weight?
Reports suggest there is a real fear of a heavy defeat within the Nice squad. The situation is so serious that Claude Puel is considering to significantly rotate his squad to protect his key players for their crucial playoff against Saint-Etienne.
Lens, by contrast, have enjoyed a brilliant season. They finished second in Ligue 1, just six points behind Paris Saint-Germain. This is a remarkable achievement given the Parisians’ resources. Les Sang et Or concluded their league campaign with a dominant 4-0 victory against Lyon. Pierre Sage’s team have lost just one of their previous seven matches.
Lens have never won the Coupe de France, finishing as runners‑up on three occasions. Their most recent appearance in the final occurred during the 1997/98 season, which was the same year they secured their only Ligue 1 title. They haven’t clinched any silverware in 17 years, having won Ligue 2 in 2009. Their opponents have won the trophy three times, but that history is less relevant when a club already have other priorities.
This is the first cup meeting between these sides in 72 years. Their only previous cup fixture was in 1954, when Nice won 5-0 under Just Fontaine.
Nice have won just one of the last four head‑to‑heads. Their form across four winless matches is also unimpressive, including a 1-1 draw with Lens earlier this month. Their only win across nine matches came in the Coupe de France semi‑final against Strasbourg.
Lens are in excellent form, while Nice are declining rapidly. The conditions are perfectly set for an exciting final between two teams who are in completely different situations.
Favourites likely to triumph in an open match
Aside from a few minor setbacks, Lens have been in excellent form this season. They have won four of their last seven, losing just once – to PSG. They defeated Toulouse 4‑1 in the semi‑final last month. On the final Ligue 1 matchday, Les Sang et Or scored four again.
However, Lens also concede. They have kept only two clean sheets in eight of their last 10 competitive fixtures. Nice, despite their struggles, still possess attacking quality. This is a final – their first since 1997. Even a distracted team can find a goal.
Six of Nice’s last seven games have stayed under 2.5 goals, but that statistic belongs to a team fighting for survival in stale league fixtures. A final is different, and Nice should score at least a consolation goal. The stage is set at the Stade de France for both teams to score, but Lens are the clear favourites to claim their first Coupe de France title.
Lens poised to exploit a vulnerable defence
Lens have scored 16 goals across their five Coupe de France matches this season. That record averages slightly more than three goals per game. They scored four against Toulouse in the semi‑final. Also, they netted four past Lyon on the final day of Ligue 1, three of which came in the first half.
The Nice defence is simply unprepared to handle this attacking threat. They conceded 60 goals across 34 league games – the second‑most porous in the division after Metz. Claude Puel’s outfit have been vulnerable all season.
Lens’ Ligue 1 games this term average three goals, and they arrive in excellent form. With Nice expected to rotate, they will likely concede multiple goals. Given Lens’ recent output and Nice’s fragility, this price undervalues the former’s attacking quality.
The French forward aims to continue his scoring record
Florian Thauvin is in fantastic form. The Frenchman scored and assisted in Lens’ 4‑0 demolition of Lyon. He also scored and assisted in the 4‑1 semi‑final win over Toulouse. Thauvin now has four goals and as many assists in his last eight appearances.
The former Marseille man is playing with a sharpness that few in France can match. Two of Lens’ last five games have featured over 3.5 total goals, and Thauvin scored in both. His record against Nice is modest. He has three goals and one assist in 15 career meetings, but all of those came during his time playing for Marseille.
Thauvin has not contributed a goal or an assist in two matches against Nice since joining Lens. That run is due to end. On the biggest stage, with Lens pursuing a first major trophy in 17 years, Thauvin has the quality to be the player who makes the difference.