Monaco are chasing European football with four games remaining. They are one of the most in-form sides. Toulouse, in contrast, have lost four in a row.
| Ligue 1 Betting Market | Odds |
|---|---|
| Toulouse vs Monaco - BTTS Yes & Over 2.5 total goals | 1.95 |
Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
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Monaco’s goalscoring trend a pattern, not a coincidence
Monaco have four games remaining in the Ligue 1 season. They sit just outside the top six, two points behind Marseille in the Conference League spot. In addition to that, they’re four points behind the Champions League places jointly held by Lyon and Lille. A top-three finish is still mathematically possible. Every match is a final.
However, their most compelling story is not their league position. It is what happens when they take to the pitch. Monaco’s last four Ligue 1 fixtures have all ended with both teams scoring and at least three goals scored in total.
The scorelines reveal a trend: a 2-2 draw with Auxerre, a 4-1 loss to Paris F, a 2-1 win over Marseille, and a 2-1 victory against Lyon.
From a larger sample, nine of the Monegasques’ last 11 games across all competitions have seen winners in the aforementioned market. On the road, the trend is even sharper. Monaco have registered a win in this market in four successive away days – the longest active streak for any away Ligue 1 team.
The underlying data explains why. Monaco have kept seven clean sheets all season – the joint-fifth best record in the division. They are not built to prevent opponents from scoring. In fact, they are built to outscore them.
Across their last five Ligue 1 matches, they have accumulated more than 1.5 expected goals (xG) each time. Against Auxerre and Paris FC, they registered xG of 2.24 and 2.31, respectively.
Before that, they overperformed with an xG of 1.58 in the 2-1 win over Marseille. They had underperformed with an xG of 3.28 in the narrow 2-1 victory against Lyon. The final of their last five games was a 2-0 win over Brest – registered a 2.29 xG tally.
In total, Monaco boast the third‑highest xG in Ligue 1 with 53.55, trailing only Lens (58.81) and PSG (61.5). They have also registered the joint‑fifth most assists in the division alongside Strasbourg, with 31.
Monaco have scored 52 goals this term, the fourth‑highest tally in the league. They are slightly underperforming their xG, suggesting there could have been even more goals.
They have also scored two or more in 10 of their last 11 matches. Defensively, they are vulnerable. However, offensively, they are confident of finding the net.
Monegasques visiting Le Tefece is the perfect storm for goals
Toulouse enter this league fixture in poor form. They have lost four consecutive competitive outings. The most recent was a tragic 4-1 Coupe de France semi‑final defeat to Lens, following a 3-2 league loss to the same side just four days earlier. Before that, they lost to Lille and PSG.
Crucially, every single one of those four defeats has cleared the 2.5 total goals mark. Two of them crossed 3.5, while both losses to Lens produced exactly five goals each, i.e., more than 4.5 total goals.
Their four-game losing run have seen both teams find the back of the net. The trend reflects Monaco’s own streak perfectly.
Toulouse’s defensive statistics are alarming. Their xG conceded in those four defeats is evidence. Across both matches against Lens, their xG conceded values were 3.26 and 3.76. It was 2.22 against Lille, and 1.95 versus PSG. They are conceding at an alarming rate.
The hosts are winless since a 1-0 win over Lorient on 21 March. However, they return to home turf after back-to-back away outings at Stade Bollaert-Delelis. Stadium de Toulouse will demand a response. Le Tefece are motivated to score in front of their own fans, despite their season woes.
Monaco, for their part, are on a two-match winless run. Previously, they had beaten both Lyon and Marseille by identical 2-1 scorelines – two of the division’s top six sides. Their attacking quality has not deserted them.
The head-to-head history reinforces the case. Monaco are undefeated in 22 of their last 26 Ligue 1 meetings with Toulouse. The average goals per meeting in direct matches is 2.46, and recent encounters have been particularly open.
Seven of their last eight meetings in Toulouse have featured goals at both ends. Furthermore, Monaco have seen BTTS & Over 2.5 total goals in six of their last seven competitive away games.
Toulouse and Monaco tick the boxes in this market, at least over their last four league games.
Monaco need points to chase European qualification. Toulouse need a response after four successive defeats. Both sides have every reason to attack. At the same time, both teams are expected to concede.
The trends point to another lively goalscoring encounter, with the visitors in better form than the hosts.