Real Madrid have focused on strengthening their attacking options after outperforming Barcelona defensively. Will that be enough to see them home?
| La Liga winner | Odds |
|---|---|
| Barcelona | 1.72 |
| Real Madrid | 2.20 |
Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
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Reinforced Real to ignite La Liga challenge
Barcelona set the benchmark for the 2026/27 title market after last season’s superior attacking numbers. Yet, the gap between Spain’s top two was far slimmer at the other end. That leaves a simple pre-season question - is the favourite’s price short enough to oppose?
The short answer is yes. Like many clubs across Europe, the rebuild is well and truly on at Real Madrid. Jose Mourinho returns to the dugout. That should inspire the Madrid fans, as they prepare to wrestle back the La Liga title from their arch-rivals. Los Blancos hope to stop Barca from recording three league titles back-to-back for the first time since 2010/11.
The last time Real Madrid won La Liga, they also enjoyed success in Europe. With the Special One back, that dream is restored.
Barcelona’s title credentials face a new test
Barcelona enter the market as the deserved favourites. Their attacking baseline from the latest completed La Liga season was clearly stronger than Madrid’s, with 95 league goals to Real’s 77. The underlying numbers point to the same conclusion, as Barcelona generated 86.62 xG compared to Los Blancos’ 78.00.
The Catalans outperformed their xG by 8.38, which shows how effectively they converted the chances they created. Hansi Flick’s men led La Liga, edging Real Madrid 692 to 665, while their shots on target were 257 to 253. The champions weren’t fortunate to be in their position. They were simply better and sustained that edge across the main attacking metrics.
It’s at the other end of the pitch where separation was minimal. Barca allowed 36 league goals past their goalkeeper, one more than Real during the season. The champions finished fourth in La Liga in terms of expected goals against, with 45.3 xGA. Athletic Club, who finished the campaign in 12th place, had a better xGA at 42.24.
Instead of addressing concerns at the back, it appears that Flick has doubled down on reinforcing his attacking department. The Catalans signed Anthony Gordon from Newcastle, who’ll replace Marcus Rashford on the left wing.
Gordon scored just six goals in 26 appearances for the Magpies compared to Rashford’s output of eight goals in 32 games. The latter had an xG of 7.35, while the former had 8.83. This clearly shows one of them performed beyond expectation.
Robert Lewandowski’s departure leaves Barcelona without a forward who scored 19 goals in all competitions last season. That does not necessarily weaken Barcelona, but it does make their short outright price more difficult to justify. Barcelona are the rightful favourites, but that price is too short.
Barca’s attack was comfortably the better of the two. However, the one-goal difference in goals conceded shows the gap between these rivals was smaller than the market’s favourite-versus-chaser narrative suggests.
The case for Real Madrid in the La Liga title race
Backing Real starts with acknowledging their strong defensive base. Not only did they concede the fewest in the division, but they’re now playing under the pragmatic eye of Jose Mourinho. As expected, their xGA last season was 41.17, the lowest in La Liga, which they outperformed by -6.17.
Los Blancos faced 122 shots on target, 10 fewer than the reigning champions. Furthermore, the challengers allowed the opposition to score 77.14% of their goals inside the box compared to Barca’s 91.67%. That clearly shows that Flick’s defensive line was far more penetrable than Real’s.
The main weakness came in attack, as their 78.00 xG was way short of Barcelona’s 86.62. Real Madrid’s 11.58% conversion rate was a concern, ranking them only seventh in La Liga. Third-placed Villarreal finished with the best conversion rate of 15.82%, while the Spanish champions had 13.73%.
These offensive issues could be fixed by Real’s defensive signings. Los Blancos have brought in three defenders this summer. Ibrahima Konate has arrived on a free transfer from Liverpool, while Marc Cucurella and Denzel Dumfries have arrived in the full-back areas.
Cucurella just came off a successful World Cup campaign with Spain. He now returns to his homeland. The left-back ranked in the top 5% of Premier League defenders last season for total touches in the opposition box and chances created.
He recorded 43 crosses into the box last term; 13 were successful at a rate of 30.2%. Cucurella created 39 chances across 34 appearances. Only five of those came from dead-ball situations.
Dumfries also brings attacking quality after joining from Inter Milan. He was in the top 4% of defenders in the Champions League last season for goals, expected goals, and expected assists per 90.
These defensive reinforcements could add layers of attacking threat and functionality to Mourinho’s Real Madrid side next season. As a result, they are the value pick at an odds-against price in the La Liga winner market.
Barcelona’s 18-goal scoring advantage, higher xG, and stronger shot numbers make them legitimate favourites for 2026/27.
However, the 35-to-36 comparison in goals conceded is where punters should pause before accepting a short Barcelona price at face value. If Mourinho’s squad reset can narrow part of the attacking gap, they don’t need a dramatic swing to become serious contenders for the title.