Barcelona’s attack makes backing one of them a worthy choice to dethrone Mbappe and prevent him from winning for a third consecutive season.
Odds courtesy of BET99. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
| Market | Selection | Odds |
| La Liga top goalscorer | Mpabbé | -200 |
| La Liga top goalscorer | Raphinha | +160 |
| La Liga top goalscorer | Lamine Yamal | +400 |
| La Liga top goalscorer | Ante Budimir | +2500 |
All odds are courtesy of BET99, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
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Kylian Mbappe - hopes of a third consecutive title
Mbappe kicked off the season as the clear frontrunner. While he still is the bookmakers’ favourite, he’s now got serious competition.
He’s still being backed to secure his third La Liga top goalscorer title in a row because of his seven goals in 540 minutes. The French captain recorded an xG of 7.86, which indicates he has slightly underperformed.
He took 40 shots in the league, the most in the division. His 22 shots on target are far better than his nearest rivals, with 13. Also, his goal and assist against Elche in midweek highlighted how heavily Real Madrid’s attack continues to rely on him. However, Mbappe did not dominate the top scorer race last season.
Kylian scored 25 league goals, just two in front of Vedat Muriqi’s 23. In the previous season, he scored 31 times, four more than Robert Lewandowski. Those races have been close, and the odds available make a case for three other players to beat him to the title.
Raphinha - the realistic choice
Before Barcelona’s midweek 7-2 hammering of Racing Santander, Raphinha was priced far higher than after those 90 minutes. The Brazilian forward scored a hat-trick within the space of 42 minutes on Wednesday night.
That took his goal tally for the season to nine. He currently leads the race for La Liga’s Golden Boot, but that hasn’t yet reflected entirely in the market.
Barcelona’s attack relies on wide forwards attacking the box, late midfield runs, positional rotations and quick transitions after regaining possession. It’s a system that keeps Raphinha heavily involved without making him the only route to goal.
His personal xG of 8.01 for the season is the best for any player in La Liga. He did that in 478 minutes compared to Mbappe’s 540.
Raphinha ranks fourth for the number of shots taken, with 21, but his 13 on target place him joint-second alongside his teammate Lamine Yamal. He is incredibly accurate and efficient in the final third. Raphinha has a conversion rate of 42.86%, the best among the candidates in this list.
His odds of being top scorer place him at a 38.5% chance of probability, compared to Mbappe’s 66.7%. That means Raphinha remains an option in the market, particularly if he can maintain his scoring rate and close the gap on the Real Madrid forward.
Lamine Yamal - a worthy second option
Spain’s wonderkid could’ve had a brace in that midweek La Liga fixture. However, he managed to get onto the scoresheet in the 89th minute of the game. This was after he had missed a penalty on the stroke of half-time.
Yet, that goal took his tally to seven, level with Real’s Kylian Mbappe. As always, Yamal was influential in the game, recording two assists in the game and finishing with an xG of 1.66. Overall for the season, he has an xG of 5.82, third behind Mbappe and Raphinha.
He’s also taken the second-most shots in La Liga with 33, and he holds second spot jointly with Raphinha for shots on target with 13. Yamal ranks second for big chances missed at seven, with only Real’s Arda Guler beating him out by one shot. However, he’s central to Barca’s attack and just as important to the team as Raphinha.
His slightly larger price makes him an appealing prospect, but it’s worth approaching with some caution.
Ante Budimir - the outsider
Budimir is the outsider rather than a direct challenger to the Barcelona pair, but he still has enough behind him to merit a mention. The Osasuna forward has four league goals in 412 minutes.
His xG of 4.18 is the fourth-highest in La Liga. He has also put 10 of his 16 shots on target, underlining his efficiency in front of goal.
Budimir’s conversion rate of 25% is better than both Raphinha’s and Yamal’s. He started the campaign with four goals from four matches, but he’s now blanked in his last two appearances.
Last season, he finished the campaign with 17 goals, third in the division, so he can never be written off. Osasuna, however, don’t offer the same attacking environment that the other three on this list enjoy, which could make it harder for him to maintain his challenge.
That makes Budimir more of a speculative outsider than a genuine alternative to the leading trio at this stage.
Racing Santander’s Yassir Zabiri also deserves a mention, since he’s scored six goals in 311 La Liga minutes. With an xG of 3.49, he’s overperformed by 2.51, which is why he’s worth backing if a market becomes available for the 21-year-old.