Goals are the name of the game, but they have to come from somewhere. We’ve analysed the top five leagues to unveil potential goalscorers this week.
| Anytime goalscorer | Odds |
|---|---|
| Donyell Malen against Lecce | 2.15 |
| Nico O’Reilly against Arsenal | 7.40 |
| Denis Undav against Augsburg | 2.18 |
| Ante Budimir against Girona | 1.92 |
| Joaquin Panichelli against Nantes | 2.65 |
All odds are courtesy of bet365, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
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From Villain to Hero
Donyell Malen’s time with Aston Villa wasn’t great. He scored seven goals in 35 appearances. However, his loan move to Italy’s capital seems to have worked out. Given how things are going, Malen hopes Roma can make the deal permanent. Since his switch from the Premier League to Serie A in the middle of January, Malen’s been outstanding for Roma. He has scored seven goals in nine games.
Roma are now heavily reliant on the forward. Evan Ferguson, Paulo Dybala, and Artem Dovbyk are all sidelined through injury. He’s scored four goals in his last five Serie A matches. With Roma netting 14 goals in their previous six games at home, he will likely score. He is also on penalty duty and has converted both of his spot-kicks so far.
His xG of 0.80 goals per game is the best in the division. Meanwhile, his 1.73 shots on target per 90 minutes is the third best in Serie A. Malen has also taken 4.98 shots per 90 minutes at Roma, the best he’s had in his career. He is now up against a side that have struggled away from home, registering just four away clean sheets in the league.
Lecce concede 1.49 xG per 90 minutes, which is the third-worst in the Italian top-flight. They’ve previously shipped a minimum of two goals against teams like Atalanta, Lazio, Como, and Napoli. It’s one of the reasons they remain at risk of being relegated to Serie B by the end of the season.
They limited the league leaders to a single goal on their recent travels to Inter. However, that was largely thanks to the heroics of goalkeeper Wladimiro Falcone. Inter still registered an xG of 1.83 in that game. Lecce were lucky Jonathan David missed a penalty against Juventus, but they still conceded an xG of 2.77.
Those numbers suggest I Giallorossi should get some joy at home to Lecce this weekend. Malen is likely to be the catalyst for the hosts.
City’s surprise threat on the left
Manchester City boss Pep Guardiola is known for deploying players in different positions, especially when they’re young. That seems to be the case with 20-year-old Nico O’Reilly, who was deployed at left-back earlier in the campaign. However, with Rayan Ait-Nouri returning from the Africa Cup of Nations and injury issues, Guardiola has moved the youngster into a new role.
O’Reilly has featured on the left wing in recent outings. He was rested during the week in the Champions League. Pep likely had the Carabao Cup final against Arsenal in mind when resting him, given the Gunners’ own injury concerns.
The 20-year-old has scored three goals in his last four Premier League appearances for City, including a brace against Newcastle. He could be the danger man for the Cityzens, in place of Jeremy Doku.
O’Reilly has taken a minimum of two shots in those four fixtures, averaging 3.25 shots per 90 minutes in that run. He is likely to come up against Ben White. Arsenal’s regular right back, Jurrien Timber, appears to be injured and may not be available. As a result, we could see the young man dominate on the left, making him a candidate to score in the final.
In-form Undav eyes Augsburg again
Deniz Undav has almost doubled his goalscoring tally from last season. He scored nine goals in 27 games last term in the Bundesliga, but has already netted 16 goals in 22 appearances for the Swabians. To put those numbers into context, only Harry Kane has scored more in the German top-flight this season, with 30 goals.
The forward is in excellent form at the moment, having scored in each of his last five league matches. He’s outperformed his xG by 3.68, with only Harry Kane and Yan Diomande exceeding him. This weekend, Undav goes up against Augsburg, a team that have been poor at the back.
The hosts have an xGA (expected goals against) of 46.7, which is the third-worst in the division. Additionally, they’ve conceded an average of 1.73 goals per game, which means Undav will be confident ahead of this trip. The 29-year-old also enjoys a decent record against the hosts, having scored a brace in the reverse fixture.
Undav also scored in Stuttgart’s last visit to Augsburg. With the visitors aiming for Champions League qualification, they are expected to go all out for the win. As a result, backing Undav to pierce the home defence is worthwhile.
Budimir to keep El Sadar buzzing
Two mid-table teams, Osasuna and Girona, will battle it out this weekend, hoping to put distance between them. They’re locked on 34 points in La Liga, but the hosts hope Ante Budimir will be the difference maker this weekend. With 13 league goals this season, Budimir is ranked fourth in the race for the Golden Boot.
Osasuna’s home La Liga fixtures have seen loads of goalmouth action this season. The Estadio El Sadar has recorded the third-highest goals-per-game average in the league this term, at 3.08 goals per match. That means goals are expected in this fixture, and Budimir should be one of the goalscorers.
He should thrive against a Girona side that concede an average of 1.57 goals per away game in the league. Michel’s men have only kept a single clean sheet across 14 away dates so far. With Budimir scoring in four home games on the bounce, he will likely get some success against the travelling defence.
Panichelli powers Strasbourg’s European push
Strasbourg still have a realistic chance of making it into the European places in Ligue 1. They’re currently eighth and six points behind Monaco in sixth. After making it through the Conference League playoffs on Thursday, they’ll be eager to win away at Nantes this weekend.
One man who could be the difference for the visitors is Joaquin Panichelli. The forward has scored five goals in his last seven starts in all competitions. With 14 Ligue 1 goals this term, he’s joint-second on the scoring charts, only one goal behind Mason Greenwood.
The Argentine’s xG is the highest in the league at 13.17, which means he’s slightly outperforming expectations. He’ll be happy to go up against the division’s third-worst defence, having conceded 42 goals in their 25 games. His average of 0.59 goals per 90 minutes places him in the top 90% of players in Ligue 1.
As a result, Panichelli will likely unlock the home defence and hand another blow to Nantes’ efforts to remain in Ligue 1.