Beyond the top two, the race for a top-four finish is an open one, with several sides showing the quality and resilience needed to upset the odds.
| Bundesliga top-four finish | Odds |
| Freiburg | 4.50 |
| Stuttgart | 3.50 |
| Mainz | 15.00 |
Odds courtesy of BET99. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
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Freiburg
Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund are already well placed to secure two of the Bundesliga’s four Champions League spots. Both Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund remain unbeaten after six matches, with each side collecting 14 points.
Bayern’s underlying metrics are unmatched, with 20.9 xG accumulated and 22 goals scored. The reigning champions should dominate the Bundesliga again. Dortmund remain their most likely challengers, despite an underwhelming tally of 10.0 xG, which is only the 10th-best record.
The race for the other two places in the top four is much more open. Freiburg are currently riding high in third place, just one point behind the top two. That’s largely thanks to some excellent defensive work so far.
They have conceded just six times from a mere 5.64 xGA (expected goals against). Julian Schuster’s team rank second by that metric, in between Bayern (5.56 xGA) and Dortmund (6.25 xGA). In addition, no team has allowed fewer shots on target than Freiburg (15) across the opening six matchdays.
While they were weakened by the summer departure of Johan Manzambi, Freiburg seem to have reinvested well. They average 2.50 goals per game. However, they have significantly overperformed their xG total of 11.59, which is only the seventh-best record.
Even if their current clinical finishing subsides slightly, the underlying data still points towards a strong European push. Outside of the four favourites, the Breisgau-Brasilianer are the value pick to reach the Champions League. They can currently be backed to finish in the top four with an implied probability of 22%.
Stuttgart
Along with Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund, Bayer Leverkusen and RB Leipzig are also currently odds-on for a top-four finish. The prices haven’t shifted greatly, despite some of the favourites making slow starts.
Leverkusen surprisingly lost their opening game at Elversberg but have since outlined their credentials. Victories over Die Roten Bullen and fellow top-four hopefuls Mainz and Freiburg in their past three matches bode well for their chances.
However, Leipzig’s poor away form offers encouragement to the other contenders. Martin Demichelis’ side remain without a point on the road after a 6-1 loss against Bayern Munich last time out.
Stuttgart are another club who could get into the mix. They finished fourth last season, but their extra European commitments already seem to be having an impact on their domestic form.
They are currently down in 13th place in the Bundesliga, having lost four of their opening six games. Die Roten have only netted eight times, despite accumulating a solid 12.33 xG. That marks the biggest underperformance in the league, nearly twice as large as that of the second-ranked team (goals vs xG).
Those figures suggest we can expect Stuttgart to improve as the campaign progresses. However, their away form is a genuine cause for concern, as shown by a 1-0 defeat to Hamburg last weekend.
Their hopes of qualifying for the Champions League again will quickly fade if things don’t improve on the road. That’s far from guaranteed, given the demands of a packed schedule over the next few months. Those issues suggest Stuttgart don’t offer as much value as Freiburg, with the two clubs currently available at a similar price.
Mainz
The Bundesliga top-four race certainly looks more competitive than the current odds suggest. Should Leipzig continue to stutter or one of the other leading contenders fall back, there could be major shifts in this market.
That’s when an outsider such as Mainz could suddenly see their odds shorten. Die Nullfunfer have already climbed into the top five, having won three of their opening six fixtures.
Their victories have all come on the road against Schalke, Borussia Monchengladbach and Hamburg. However, home defeats against Bayer Leverkusen and a struggling Eintracht Frankfurt side point to a degree of inconsistency.
While tougher tests lie ahead, the underlying metrics are encouraging. Mainz currently rank third in the Bundesliga with 12.1 xPTS (expected points).
Urs Fischer’s team can currently be backed to finish in the top four with an implied probability of 7%. While Freiburg are more capable of lasting the course, Mainz still offer value at such a big price.