The results are also reflected in the numbers. This leaves them tied with Paderborn at the foot of the Bundesliga’s expected points table (4.5 xPTS).
| Borussia Monchengladbach 2026/27 Bundesliga betting markets | Odds |
| To be relegated | 2.20 |
All odds are courtesy of BET99, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
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After four straight defeats to start the 2026/27 Bundesliga season, Borussia Monchengladbach dispensed with the services of head coach Eugen Polanski.
Former St. Pauli manager Alexander Blessin was appointed as his replacement after a brief caretaker spell by Jan-Moritz Lichte. Unfortunately for Blessin, the 53-year-old has since overseen two more league defeats.
Remarkably, Gladbach are still without a point so far this season. They’ve scored just eight goals and conceded 20. There’s already a five-point gap between themselves and 17th-placed Union Berlin.
In Blessin’s recent pre-match press conference ahead of the trip to VfB Stuttgart, he reeled off an injury list containing nine first-team players. The list includes skipper Tim Kleindienst and Isac Lidberg, who are both huge misses for Gladbach in the final third.
In the absence of Kleindienst and Lidberg, Blessin will be forced to keep faith in Shuto Machino. The 27-year-old hasn’t scored from open play since the turn of the New Year. Blessin has also been forced to turn to 19-year-old rookie Iaia Manco Danfa to be involved as a back-up striker.
Ultimately, most of the underlying data suggests Gladbach are exactly where they deserve to be. Their xG conceded (14.8) is the second worst in the division.
In addition, their 0.14 xGA per shot conceded is the joint-highest in the Bundesliga alongside Augsburg. This points to a defence that allows opponents to create quality chances.
They’ve only posted more xG than their opponents on two occasions this season. Gladbach won the xG battle 2.36 to 2.31 against newly promoted Elversberg, but they still lost 4-3. They also recorded a higher xG than Mainz, 3.24 to 2.82, but still lost 4-3.
In many ways, the first six games of this season are a continuation of Gladbach’s form last term. They were hugely underwhelming in 2025/26, averaging just one point per game.
They only finished nine points ahead of the relegation play-off place that Wolfsburg held with 29 points. It’s clear there has been even further regression in the Gladbach playing squad over the last six months.
Why Gladbach are starting to offer value in the Bundesliga relegation market
Last season, Gladbach averaged 1.12 points per game. Maintaining that rate across their remaining 28 fixtures would leave them with roughly 31 points by the end of the current campaign.
That’s a concerning figure for even the most positive of Gladbach fans. Had they finished on 31 points in the last two seasons, they would’ve been just two points from contesting the relegation play-off match.
Worse still, 31 points would have ensured either a relegation play-off or automatic relegation to the second tier in the four seasons prior to 2024/25.
If the teams surrounding them at the foot of the table also improve collectively, the bar to safety will only rise. The biggest red flag for Blessin’s side is the performance of the newly promoted sides.
Elversberg have surprised everyone to sit on 10 points, while Schalke 04 and Paderborn sit on five points apiece.
Remarkably, the betting markets still think there’s less than a coin flip chance of Gladbach facing the drop. It’s currently priced at around a 45% likelihood of happening.
That looks generous, given Gladbach’s ongoing injury list and current run of form. Statsultra used its data model to simulate the 2026/27 Bundesliga season from where it stands. Gladbach were relegated almost four times every five simulations (79%).
It’s been two decades since Borussia Monchengladbach were last relegated. Without this longevity and stature in German football, their relegation odds would be odds-on by now.
Gladbach’s next run of fixtures will prove pivotal. They have a chance of pinching something against a Stuttgart side with just two wins from six matches. They then entertain 16th-placed Paderborn at Borussia-Park.
Victory over Paderborn would set them up nicely for a trip to low-scoring Hamburg, followed by a daunting clash with Borussia Dortmund. They then face back-to-back away trips to Werder Bremen and Bayer Leverkusen.
By early December, it should be clearer whether Borussia Mönchengladbach have what it takes to survive a relegation battle.