19 World Cup goals, France’s ninth quarter-final, and Messi's record just one strike away all point to serious value in the outright markets.
| 2026 World Cup France Betting Markets | Odds |
|---|---|
| Kylian Mbappé (Top Goalscorer) | +150 |
| France & Kylian Mbappé (Winner & Top Goalscorer) | +225 |
| France (Highest Scoring Team) | -125 |
| France (Over 19.5 Goals) | / |
| Kylian Mbappé (9+ Goals) | / |
All odds are courtesy of US Sportsbooks, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
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Mbappé is rewriting the World Cup record books
Many believe that Kylian Mbappé is carrying the French national team on his back through the World Cup finals. The Real Madrid icon struck a 70th-minute penalty to see off Paraguay and set up a fascinating quarter-final with Morocco.
No player in the modern era has bent this tournament to his will quite like Mbappé. Since making his first World Cup appearance in 2018, he has netted 19 goals. That’s four more than any other player has achieved in the same timeframe.
His record in the knockout stages of the World Cup is even more impressive. Mbappé has scored 11 goals beyond the group stage. That’s one more than England and Brazil have achieved in their knockout stage matches between 2018 and their 2026 Round of 16 ties.
Mbappé’s winning penalty against Paraguay was his seventh of this summer’s finals. This made him the joint top goalscorer alongside Lionel Messi and Erling Haaland. He’s now just one goal behind Messi’s all-time record of 20 World Cup goals.
Now aged 27, Mbappé is in the form of his life. With France having a serious shot at reaching a third successive World Cup final, he has another three games to find the net.
This makes him the obvious contender for the tournament’s Golden Boot award. Based on the latest bookmakers’ odds, he’s been given a 54.6% chance of scoring 9+ goals by the end of the tournament. That’s just two more goals in a campaign where he’s managed seven goals in five matches.
Les Bleus are by no means a one-man team
Although Mbappé’s data would suggest that he’s single-handedly steering France towards more major honours, there’s a bigger picture to consider.
The supporting cast of Didier Deschamps’ squad are thriving too. Michael Olise leads the way with the most assists in the tournament, having posted five. That’s just one shy of the tournament assist record set by Brazilian legend Pelé in 1970.
Olise’s creativity from the right flank has been a major factor in France’s attacking dominance. France have averaged three or more goals scored in five successive World Cup games earlier in the tournament.
That’s the longest streak of 3+ goals scored per game in World Cup history. It underlines Les Bleus’ favouritism in the Highest Scoring Team market.
Only Brazil (15), Germany (14) and England (11) have surpassed France’s record of reaching nine World Cup quarter-finals. They also scored their 150th goal in World Cup history against Paraguay. Only three nations - Brazil (247), Germany (243) and Argentina (163) - can exceed this scoring tally.
Les Bleus have a re-run of the 2022 World Cup semi-final against Morocco in this year’s quarter-finals. The Atlas Lions are unbeaten in 34 matches in all competitions. Yet, Deschamps’ men are one of the few teams to have the versatility in attack to outplay the Moroccans.
The betting markets believe there is only a 41.6% chance of France scoring 20+ goals at this summer’s finals. They already have 14 goals in their first five appearances at an average of almost three goals per game.
If they maintain this output and reach the semi-finals at least, there’s more than a 50% probability of them hitting 20+ goals.
The only minor warning sign is Les Bleus’ xG data. Their expected goals come in at 8.8 across their last five games.
This means they’ve almost scored at twice the rate of their xG. If the goals dry up for Mbappé and Olise’s creative output declines, is there enough elsewhere in the squad to get the job done?
The best bet? Back Mbappé to keep on scoring
Backing Mbappé to score at least two more goals at the current odds seems like the most obvious play. He would become the all-time leading scorer at the World Cup, so the motivation is obvious.
Bookmakers currently give him just a 16.6% chance of scoring a brace in France’s quarter-final with Morocco. This feels surprisingly low given that he’s scored two goals in three of his last five appearances for Les Bleus.
One final betting angle could be to combine France and Mbappé in a double bet. You can currently back France to win the World Cup and Mbappé to win the Golden Boot at a probability of only 30.7%.
If France make the final, Mbappé will have another three matches to move clear at the top of the Golden Boot charts. The risk in this double bet is more on whether Les Bleus can make the final. Yet, with three more games, and potentially penalties and extra time to play, it’s hard not to see Mbappé scoring at least two more.