On an 11-game winning streak, #11 USF is a popular upset pick against #6 Louisville in today’s NCAA Tournament First Round matchup. With Louisville’s Mikel Brown Jr. out, Ryan Conwell could be in line for a big game (25+ points @ +172) as the Cardinals look to avoid the upset.
Louisville vs USF Predictions - 1:30pm EST - 3/19
- Ryan Conwell 25+ Points @ +172
- Over 164.5 Points @ -115
- Louisville -4.5 @ -106
All odds are courtesy of US Sportsbooks, correct at the time of publishing, and subject to change.
- Get more sports bonuses with the BetMGM promo code
- Set up for the tournament? Check out our March Madness Betting Promos with $5,000+ up for grabs
- Or read our basketball expert’s view on the best March Madness betting sites to use
Louisville vs USF Odds
- Spread: Louisville -4.5 (-106)
- Moneyline: USF (+162), Louisville (-196)
- Total: 164.5 (O -115, U -105)
Louisville vs USF Picks
Conwell to Carry Cardinals’ Offense - Ryan Conwell 25+ Points (+172)
Louisville guard Ryan Conwell went three for 19 from beyond the arc in two ACC Tournament games, but still managed to score 19 points per game. Conwell, a senior who spent the 2022-23 season at South Florida, leads the ACC with 105 three-point field goals.
As a 34.2 percent three-point shooter on the season, surely his shot will start falling at some point. Conwell has also scored 22 or more points in four of his last six games, and the Cardinals will need him to carry the offense with Mikel Brown Jr. out.
Brown Jr., who is out with a back issue, averaged 18.2 points per game in 21 games this season, while Conwell is Louisville’s leading scorer, with 18.7 PPG. South Florida has also allowed Quad 1 opponents to shoot 36 percent from three this season and fouls at an alarmingly high rate.
Those factors should help Conwell have a bounce-back game and score 25+ points today.
- USF vs Louisville Prediction 1: Ryan Conwell 25+ Points @ +172
Bulls to Push the Pace - Over 164.5 Points (-115)
South Florida’s 11-game winning streak is undoubtedly impressive, but they haven’t faced a Quad 1 opponent since taking on Tulsa on January 10th. In games against Quad 1 opponents this season, the Bulls have allowed 85 points per game.
In their only two games against power conference foes this season, South Florida gave up over 100 points on both occasions. Louisville’s offense isn’t as formidable with Brown Jr. out, but they can still punish the Bulls from beyond the arc and crash the offensive glass.
South Florida also pushes the pace, as the Bulls rank seventh in the country with 77.1 possessions per game. They also rank sixth in points per game, with 87.0. Louisville, which led the ACC in scoring, would be comfortable if this turns into a track meet.
Expect a thrilling game in which we should see the total go over 164.5 points (-115)
- USF vs Louisville Prediction 2: Over 164.5 Points @ -115
Cards to Clinch First March Madness Win Since 2017 - Louisville -4.5 (-106)
Pat Kelsey and Louisville have played their last four games without Mikel Brown Jr. In those games, the Cards are 3-1 with two wins over NCAA Tournament teams. Louisville can win without Brown Jr., and the line movement has been favorable for Cardinals bettors.
Louisville opened up as 6.5-point favorites, but the news of Brown Jr.’s absence has pushed this down to Louisville -4.5. Notably, South Florida has lost by eight points or more in each of its games against power conference opponents this season.
The Bulls have played the 105th-toughest schedule this season, according to KenPom, which hasn’t exactly prepared them for games of this magnitude. Meanwhile, five of Louisville’s previous six games have come against tournament teams.
Understandably, South Florida is a popular upset pick, but they lack the discipline to truly threaten Louisville. The Bulls have given up 30 free throw attempts per game against Quad 1 opponents and allow plenty of offensive rebounds. Bet on Louisville -4.5.
- USF vs Louisville Prediction 3: Louisville -4.5 @ -106
Louisville vs USF Start Time
- Start Time: 1:30pm EST
- Location: KeyBank Center
- Address: Buffalo, NY
- TV & Streaming: TNT, HBO Max, YouTube TV, Hulu + Live TV
Louisville is looking to win its first NCAA Tournament game since 2017 when it takes on a streaking USF team. USF hasn’t won a tourney game since 2012, but first-year head coach Bryan Hodgson has the Bulls firing on all cylinders during their 11-game winning streak.