Our betting expert expects both teams to score and Celta Vigo to secure a lead heading into the return clash next week.
Best Predictions for Freiburg vs Celta Vigo
- Both teams to score @ -125
- Draw no bet - Celta Vigo @ +110
- Celta Vigo to score over 1.5 goals @ +180
All odds are courtesy of US Sportsbooks, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
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Goals to flow in an open first leg
This is shaping up to be quite an open tie, with both sides favouring a positive approach. There have been 14 goals in the last three Freiburg matches alone. All of those games ended with both teams on the scoresheet.
Celta Vigo have also been an entertaining watch of late. Six of their last seven encounters in all competitions have seen both teams score. Claudio Giraldez’s side have netted at least once in all of their last 12 matches.
Both sides averaged 2.0 xG per 90 minutes during the league phase. That was better than the likes of Aston Villa and Midtjylland, who each finished in the top three positions.
Overall, backing both teams to score in this first leg offers value, with an implied probability of 54.6%.
- Freiburg vs Celta Vigo Prediction 1: Both teams to score @ -125
Freiburg to finally meet their match
Having been one of the surprise packages in the league phase, Freiburg finally breezed past Genk in the last round. However, their success until this point can at least in part be attributed to a favourable schedule.
They won all four home matches during the initial stage, which accounted for 71% of their points. However, all of the visiting teams to the Europa-Park Stadion ended up in the bottom seven positions. Meanwhile, their solitary away win came against Nice, who finished 33rd after losing seven out of eight.
This will be a step up in class for the Germans. Celta won the away legs against both PAOK and Lyon to reach this stage. They’ve not lost any of their six Europa League matches so far in 2026.
Freiburg’s overall form is also inferior. They’ve lost four of their last seven matches in all competitions, winning only twice. They do little to justify their status as favourites for this clash, with the value surely lying with the visitors.
- Freiburg vs Celta Vigo Prediction 2: Draw no bet - Celta Vigo @ +110
Galicians to fire on the road again
Celta Vigo’s excellent away record also points towards a positive night for the Spanish club. They’re on an eight-game unbeaten run on the road in all competitions.
The Galicians have scored at least twice in five of their last six fixtures outside of Vigo. They netted exactly two goals on their recent trips to both France and Greece in this competition.
It’s 10 matches without a clean sheet for Freiburg. Both Bayern and Bayer Leverkusen have managed to score three times on this ground since the start of last month. Their defence may also be vulnerable against a Celta attack that boasts real depth, with Giraldez favouring a rotation policy.
With an implied probability of just 35.7%, backing the away team to score over 1.5 goals offers good value.
- Freiburg vs Celta Vigo Prediction 3: Celta Vigo to score over 1.5 goals @ +180
Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction - Freiburg 1-2 Celta Vigo
- Goalscorers prediction - Freiburg: Vincenzo Grifo - Celta Vigo: Fer Lopez, Williot Swedberg
Freiburg lost the first leg of their round-of-16 tie against Genk, but they fought back to progress with a 5-1 home victory. They’ve since beaten St. Pauli in the Bundesliga and were on course to upset Bayern Munich on Saturday. However, Julian Schuster’s side squandered a two-goal lead with 10 minutes to play, ultimately losing 3-2.
Celta Vigo were guilty of throwing away an even bigger advantage just prior to the international break. They lost 4-3 at home to Alaves in a game they had led 3-0. The Galicians got back on track with a 3-2 win at Valencia on Sunday.
They’ve already won two Europa League knockout ties in 2026. Celta saw off PAOK 3-1 on aggregate before impressively beating Lyon by the same margin.
Probable lineups for Freiburg vs Celta Vigo
Freiburg expected lineup: Atubolu, Gunter, Lienhart, Ginter, Treu, Eggestein, Manzambi, Grifo, Suzuki, Beste, Matanovic
Celta Vigo expected lineup: Radu, Alonso, Starfelt, J. Rodriguez, Mingueza, Moriba, Sotelo, Carreira, Swedberg, Lopez, Iglesias