Our betting expert expects a strong showing from Hajime Moriyasu’s side, with their attacking players capable of firing them to victory.
Best bets for Mexico vs Japan
- Japan Moneyline @ +162 with bet365
- Japan to score over 1.5 goals @ +150 with bet365
- Both teams to score @ -138 with bet365
All odds are courtesy of bet365, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
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Mexico to fall short in Oakland
This will be a real test for Mexico, whose only recent competitive action has come in the Concacaf region. It is believed that it may not be a great time for football in that part of the world, considering it will soon host the World Cup.
While El Tri did secure silverware in the summer, they were also beaten 4-2 in a friendly by Switzerland. They edged out Turkey 1-0 a few days later, but Vincenzo Montella’s side had nearly three times as many attempts as Mexico in that one.
Japan will also be eager to test themselves against opposition from another part of the world. They’ve evolved as a team in recent years, and have won their last six matches against opposition from outside the AFC. That includes a 4-1 friendly win over Germany in 2023.
- Mexico vs Japan Bet 1: Japan Moneyline @ +162 with bet365
Joy for the underdogs in the final third
The Samurai Blue tend to adopt a 3-4-2-1 system, and they have a number of really good options in the attacking and wide roles. That should stand them in good stead in a friendly encounter such as this, where many second-half changes are expected.
The likes of Takumi Minamino and Take Kubo should supply the creativity, while they have three or four candidates for the striker role. Ayase Ueda and Daizen Maeda are the biggest names, but Koki Ogawa boasts a fine international record, with nine goals from his nine caps.
Mexico are used to coming up against conservative opponents in their region. However, their defence may struggle to cope with the speed and fluidity of the opposing attack in this game.
- Mexico vs Japan Bet 2: Japan to score over 1.5 goals @ +150 with bet365
Expect goals at each end
Both managers view the other side as a benchmark for their World Cup ambitions. Both believe they need to beat this level of opposition if they are to make any impact next summer.
That should contribute to a more open game than some of the recent fixtures involving these nations. Both are used to dominating games against defensive opponents in their own region. However, this friendly encounter has the potential to be much more open and competitive.
Japan can be very dangerous on the break, with their wing-backs capable of racing forwards to join attacks. Meanwhile, Mexico can still count on Jimenez to effectively lead the line. There’s a strong chance we’ll see both teams get on the scoresheet.
- Mexico vs Japan Bet 3: Both teams to score @ -138 with bet365
Our analysis: Form of both teams
This encounter features two sides who will be at the 2026 World Cup. Mexico will co-host the event, while Japan have sealed their finals place after finishing top of Group C in qualifying in Asia.
They suffered just one defeat in that process. That came via a 1-0 margin in Australia in June, but they responded well by hammering Indonesia 6-0 in Osaka in their final qualifier.
As for Mexico, they last tasted competitive action in the summer. They won knockout ties against Saudi Arabia, Honduras and the United States to win the Concacaf Gold Cup. Key duo Raul Jimenez and Edson Alvarez scored in a 2-1 final victory.
Probable lineups for Mexico vs Japan
Mexico expected lineup: Malagon, Gallardo, Vasquez, Montes, Sanchez, Ruiz, Alvarez, Pineda, Vega, Jimenez, Alvarado
Japan expected lineup: Suzuki, Itakura, Watanabe, Araki, Mitoma, Endo, Fujita, Doan, Kubo, Minamino, Maeda.