Real’s squad depth and Xabi Alonso’s arrival means they are still going to be the favourites in Spain next season.
| 2025/26 La Liga Winner Betting Market | Odds |
|---|---|
| Real Madrid | -125 |
| Barcelona | +120 |
| Atletico Madrid | +800 |
Odds courtesy of BetMGM. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
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Can Real Madrid cope with a Club World Cup title charge?
Real Madrid are in the last 16 of the 2025 Club World Cup after a solid group stage. Their initial 1-1 draw with Al Hilal was followed by comprehensive 3-1 and 3-0 victories over Pachuca and RB Salzburg.
New boss Xabi Alonso has had a strong start since joining from Bayer Leverkusen. Winning the Club World Cup would bring immense financial benefits to Real. It’s said the winning team will receive almost $100 million in prize money. However, is it worth it for them?
Their summer exploits will possibly negatively impact their chances of winning the 2025/26 La Liga title. After all, the Barcelona team has had a full summer to rest and recover in time for the new campaign. With the final of the 2025 Club World Cup scheduled for 13th July, Real will barely have a month to recover before the start of the new domestic season.
There are a few reasons why Real are favourites to win next season’s title. Firstly, they have the squad depth to deal with these issues. Moreover, they can rely on other players apart from Kylian Mbappe and Vinicius Junior. They also have Rodrygo, Endrick, and Jude Bellingham, who can score goals and provide assists.
On top of that, Real’s manager, Xabi Alonso, has won the last two seasons in his former role with Bayer Leverkusen. Also, he went an entire season unbeaten in his debut year with Leverkusen, before having to settle for a second-place finish in 2024/25.
Alonso’s winning mentality will surely influence Real’s squad as he is a former Real ‘Galactico’ after all. Winning the 2025 Club World Cup would be the most effective way to build team spirit under the new coach. They’ll have proved that they can compete with the best in the world if they advance to the latter stages of the competition.
Are Barcelona a team in transition?
The betting markets still suggest that the 2025/26 La Liga campaign will be a contest between just two teams for the title. Real’s probability of winning the title is currently 55.56%, while Barcelona are deemed to have a 47.62% chance of winning back-to-back titles.
Finances remain very tight at the Nou Camp. Barca spent over £21 million on Espanyol keeper Joan Garcia, but it’s unlikely the team can afford many more eight-figure signings this summer.
Although the club is projected to have a budget of over £800m for the 2025/26 La Liga campaign, existing historic debt issues are still limiting what they can do.
Even if Barca don’t sign anyone else this summer, they’ll still be a dangerous team in La Liga. Lamine Yamal is obviously the most sought-after player in European football currently. However, there's a risk that Barcelona might become overly reliant on him.
Robert Lewandowski will turn 37 at the start of the new La Liga campaign and will surely not be able to maintain his prolific output much longer. With only Raphinha and Ansu Fati in reserve, Barca will need to hope the Pole avoids injuries.
Could Atletico challenge their city rivals?
As always, it is difficult to overlook Atletico Madrid. Under Diego Simeone, Atletico are always challenging opponents and are very consistent during a domestic campaign. In 2024/25, Atletico Madrid, Real Madrid, and league champions Barcelona all finished with the same number of losses, each having six defeats.
Their lack of an elite-level striker has often been an issue for Atletico. However, they still managed to finish as the fourth-highest-scoring team in last season’s La Liga. They had the meanest defence, having conceded only 30 goals across 38 games.
Simeone has made a savvy acquisition of Barcelona’s Clement Lenglet on a free transfer, securing the French centre-back after a successful loan period last term.
The betting markets only give Atletico a 10% chance of defeating Real and Barca. This low probability likely accurately reflects the major difference in talent and attacking power that their rivals have.