La Liga winner odds: Underlying data reveals who to back

With fixture congestion likely for Barcelona, plus a defence that continues to allow good goalscoring chances, backing Real could offer great value.

All odds are courtesy of US Sportsbooks, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.

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Is Barca’s position at the La Liga summit a false one?

Hansi Flick’s Barcelona are one point clear of bitter rivals Real Madrid halfway through the season. Yet despite being La Liga’s leading goal scorers, with 54 goals in 20 matches, the underlying data doesn’t support Barca’s title chances.

Four teams in La Liga have a better defensive record than Barca. This includes all three teams immediately beneath them in the table, along with Celta Vigo, who are in seventh place.

There is a sense that Barcelona have struggled to establish a consistent defensive structure this season. It’s their expected goals against (xGA) tally that poses serious questions. Their xGA stands at 26.4 goals, meaning they should have conceded at least four more goals over the course of the season.

They have also majorly outperformed their xG tally, scoring 6.4 goals more than their 47.6 xG. If their performance returns to the statistical average in the coming period, it could pose a serious threat to Barcelona’s pursuit of the league title.

Evidence of this potential regression occurred in Barca’s recent defeat at Real Sociedad. They became only the second team in Europe’s ‘big five’ leagues since 2006/07 to strike five times in a match and still lose.

Furthermore, a congested fixture schedule may significantly impact Barcelona in the near future. With Barca playing in multiple tournaments, including La Liga, the Copa Del Rey, and the Champions League, they risk fatigue and injuries.

Barca will play six matches between 21January and 7 February, and have less than three days of recovery time per game. February and March could be just as congested if they advance further in Europe and in the Copa Del Rey.

Should we back Arbeloa’s Real to lift the La Liga title?

The betting markets indicate that Real Madrid have less than a 50% chance of clinching the La Liga title. However, the underlying data suggests Real should currently be leading the league standings.

Real have majorly underperformed their xG so far this season. They should have at least 5.2 more goals in their tally. Their expected points (xPts) total is three higher than Barca’s and a staggering 11 higher than Atletico and Villarreal.

Their underperformance led to the dismissal of manager Xabi Alonso, who was surprisingly replaced by Alvaro Arbeloa. Although the 43-year-old Arbeloa does not have the same managerial experience as Alonso, he has spent 20 years at the club as a player and a coach. He is a young coach who understands the club’s identity, which could prove pivotal over the long term.

Arbeloa has certainly made a positive start to his tenure at the Real helm. His side recorded 26 shots in their win over Levante. This was the third-highest number of goal attempts for a manager on their La Liga debut since 2003/04. This performance, combined with their 6-1 Champions League win over Monaco, offers significant optimism for 2026.

With Real out of the Copa Del Rey against minnows Albacete, the Whites can focus solely on their La Liga campaign. Kylian Mbappe is currently the league’s top scorer with 19 goals. If the team can maintain the Frenchman’s fitness and improve their conversion rate of high-quality chances, Real seem like the value bet for the title currently.

Can Atletico or Villarreal make any meaningful inroads?

Atletico Madrid or Villarreal are highly unlikely to seriously challenge Barcelona for the title. The betting markets reflect that, giving Atletico a 2.44% and Villarreal a 1.49% chance of success.

Both sides have significantly outperformed their xG so far this season. Villarreal have scored 5.7 more goals than their stats suggested. Any decline in this efficiency could see their eight-point deficit to Barcelona increase.

Villarreal’s Champions League performance has been a major concern as well. They’ve secured just one point in seven UCL League Phase matches. In fact, only Kazakh minnows, Kairat Almaty, have a poorer UCL record. It doesn’t bode well for their chances to overcome Barca and Real over the next 18 games.

The underlying data is equally concerning for Diego Simeone’s Atletico. Based on their xGA data, Atleti should have conceded 6.6 more goals than they actually have.

Using xPts as a benchmark, the eight-point gap between them and Barca is justified, but Real should be even further clear of their rivals.