La Liga winner odds: Why Real’s upcoming away run creates a value bet

Real’s questionable away form will be closely examined, as they will play their next three La Liga games away from the Bernabeu.

All odds are courtesy of US Sportsbooks, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.

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Are Barca now the value play for the 25/26 La Liga title?

Barcelona are currently in pursuit of bitter rivals Real Madrid. They dominated Celta Vigo 4-2 before the November international break. Veteran striker, Robert Lewandowski, proved that he’s still in great form by scoring three goals at Estadio Abanca-Balaidos.

Despite their El Clasico loss to Real, Barca have responded well with back-to-back league victories.

Barca are comfortably the top scorers in La Liga, having scored 32 goals in 12 games. They’ve even got the best goal difference in the division, pipping Real by one goal. This suggests that everything points towards Hansi Flick’s team being able to maintain their challenge for the title through the winter months.

Barca’s revived form appears to have somewhat knocked Real Madrid out of their stride. Xabi Alonso’s men were held to a goalless draw at Rayo Vallecano, resulting in their five-point lead being reduced to three.

Real’s away form so far this season has been far from convincing. Moreover, they’ve failed to score away from the Bernabeu in their last two away fixtures.

With that in mind, Alonso will be nervous about taking his side on a hat-trick of away fixtures after the international break. They travel to an Elche side that have only lost three of their 12 games. They then face lowly Girona, who have won two of their last five games.

A clash at Athletic Bilbao concludes this tricky run, with Bilbao blowing hot and cold so far this season. On their day, they can be formidable opponents for any team on home soil.

While Real face these away-game challenges, Barca have a hat-trick of home games to enjoy. They face Athletic Bilbao and Alaves, followed by a huge test against Atletico Madrid.

There is every chance that Barca could be at least level on points with Real going into the weekend of 6th December.

Barca’s title odds have drifted from a 50% probability to a 33.33% probability in the last four weeks, which is surprising. Given their favourable upcoming schedule, Flick’s men currently seem like the value play.

Why Villarreal and Atletico shouldn’t yet be discounted

It’s worth noting that Villarreal and Atletico Madrid’s chances of winning the 25/26 La Liga have improved over the last four weeks.

Villarreal are now given a 1.96% chance of lifting the trophy. Meanwhile, Atletico currently have a 4.35% chance of becoming champions.

Villarreal are only two points behind Barcelona at present. They also boast the joint-best defensive record in La Liga, conceding only ten in 12 games.

They shrugged off their Champions League embarrassment against Pafos FC by winning a third straight league game last weekend. In the coming weeks, they face 15th-placed Mallorca, 14th-placed Real Sociedad, and 8th-placed Getafe. It’s a real opportunity for Villarreal to close the gap on Real.

Diego Simeone’s Atletico Madrid are just one point behind Villarreal as well. They’ve lost just once so far this season and have won five of their last six La Liga games.

Atleti face a challenging trip to Getafe after the international break. However, that’s followed by games against bottom club Real Oviedo and a trip to Barcelona. A win at the Lluis Company's Olympic Stadium for Atleti could completely open up the title race.

The next few weeks are pivotal for the La Liga championship. From a pure value perspective, it might be a good idea to back Barca and Villarreal at their current odds.