.png?auto=webp&format=pjpg&width=3840&quality=60)
Argentina are bidding to become the first team in 64 years to win back-to-back World Cups. They take on Spain, who are seeking their second crown.
World Cup 2026 Winner with Kalshi
The World Cup 2026 winner odds may continue to shift if there is any major team news over the next few days. We’ll take a look at which of the sides is most likely to prevail. There are also strategy tips for betting on who will triumph as the competition concludes.
| Team | Confederation | Chance | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | Europe | 58% | New favourites after stunning semi-final display |
| Argentina | South America | 42% | Comeback kings still going strong |
All chances are courtesy of Kalshi, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
- Claim the Kalshi promo code to get sports bonuses
- Get your hands on the best World Cup Betting promos or our experts guide on how to bet on the World Cup
- Check out our expert’s guide to the best World Cup betting sites & apps this summer
World Cup 2026 Favorites: Team-by-team analysis
Most World Cup winners enter the tournament among the favourites. Squad depth, tactical organisation and experience often separate the best teams from the rest of the field. With two of the leading contenders reaching the final, the stage is set for a dramatic finale.
Spain to win World Cup 2026
France had been clear favourites to win this World Cup since outshining pre-tournament market leaders Spain in the group stage. However, that all changed on Tuesday in Dallas as La Roja stunned Les Bleus with a brilliant team performance and a 2-0 victory.
Due to that win, Spain’s implied tournament win probability shot up from around 23% to just over 60%. They restricted a star-studded French attack to just 0.31 xG. Luis de la Fuente’s team have comfortably the best defensive record at this World Cup, with only one goal conceded in seven matches.
That helps explain why Spain are viewed as the favourites heading into the final. With Rodri back to his best in midfield, the reigning European champions will be tough to beat. They’ve not lost a competitive game in regulation time since March 2023 against Scotland.
The omens are positive for Spain ahead of Sunday’s match. The pre-game favourites have won the last six World Cup finals. No underdog has won the World Cup since France's 3-0 victory over Brazil on home soil in 1998.
Spain can also take confidence from having won a major final two years ago at Euro 2024. Mikel Oyarzabal struck a late winner against England in Berlin. He’s the main dangerman for La Roja on Sunday. The Real Sociedad frontman has struck five times in seven appearances at this World Cup.
With just one goal contribution, Lamine Yamal has not hit the heights many expected. However, he did win a vital penalty with some quick thinking in the area against France in the last four. Mikel Merino could also have an impact off the bench, having already netted two late winners in the knockout stage.
Spain have had an extra day’s rest. They’ve not been taken to extra time yet at this World Cup. That could also give them a slight advantage on Sunday, and they look worthy of their current price.
Argentina to win World Cup 2026
After a series of unconvincing knockout victories, Argentina were the tournament outsiders before the two semi-finals. They were very slight underdogs against England, but they were good value for their 2-1 victory in Atlanta.
Their outright tournament win probability has since significantly increased from around 20%. However, they’ll still have to defy the odds again in New Jersey.
La Albiceleste can take belief from what was surely their best display of the tournament against England. They restricted Thomas Tuchel’s side to only five shots and just one big chance. By contrast, the reigning champions consistently threatened in the latter stages, creating 1.81 xG in the second half.
Like Spain, they are an experienced tournament team and know what it takes to win major silverware. They also have a penalty shootout specialist in the shape of Emiliano Martinez, should it go the distance. The Aston Villa goalkeeper has won all four shootouts he has been involved in with his national side.
Lionel Messi moved on to 12 goal contributions at this World Cup with two more assists against England. He’s sure to offer the main attacking threat for Argentina once more in the final after netting eight times already at this tournament.
With the last two World Cup finals serving up six goals apiece, a more open contest could favour Messi. However, hot afternoon conditions outdoors in New Jersey could lead to a slower, more tactical game than we saw in Qatar in 2022.
Argentina lost 6-1 the last time they took on Spain in a friendly in 2018. However, the nations have only met once on a competitive stage. That was way back at the 1966 World Cup when the South Americans won 2-1 in the group stage. Those results will have no real impact on Sunday’s game.
Including extra time, Argentina have scored nine goals in the 79th minute or later in the knockout stage at this World Cup. They’ll be banking on their never-say-die attitude to see them over the line again. However, this could be one match too many for an ageing team against a fresher Spanish outfit.
How World Cup 2026 winner trading works
The World Cup winner market involves predicting which nation will lift the trophy. Trades are typically settled shortly after the final.
Trading on the World Cup winner is the most popular outright market. As the knockout stage approaches, interest also increases.
The World Cup 2026 winner market will continue to shift once each team’s path to the final becomes clearer. traders can try to spot value in teams before they have played their final group games.
Chances will fluctuate significantly throughout the tournament, particularly during the knockout stage. More favorable paths will open up for some teams, while others may face tougher routes to the final. That will lead to shifts in the market, as will any major team news such as a key player getting injured.
It is possible to trade on other outright events such as the winner of each group and individual awards. Users can also back teams to reach the final or be eliminated at certain points. Always check each bookmaker's specific settlement rules for outright markets.
Factors that influence World Cup outright trading
The strongest squad does not always win the World Cup. Successful teams invariably need a few slices of good fortune on their route to glory. Tournament football also often rewards a combination of balance, depth and adaptability.
Several factors often prove decisive:
- Squad depth
- Injuries to key players
- Tournament experience
- Group-stage draw
- Knockout bracket
- Defensive record
- Goalkeeping quality
- Set-piece strength
- Penalty specialists
- Managerial experience
- Home advantage
- Familiar conditions
Strategy tips for World Cup 2026 winner markets
Having success when making World Cup 2026 predictions will require a range of approaches. Traders will need to balance quality, price and tournament path. Looking beyond the shortest-priced favorites can uncover hidden value.
- Consider teams with realistic paths to the semi-finals
- Prioritise balanced squads over star power alone
- Monitor injuries during the tournament
- Evaluate squad depth carefully
- Look at defensive records as well as attacking talent
- Consider tournament experience
- Analyse the knockout bracket
- Be cautious of public sentiment driving prices
- Compare multiple contenders
- Reassess positions as the tournament advances
- Avoid overreacting to early results in the group stage
World Cup 2026 winner trading FAQs
Who are the favorites to win the 2026 World Cup?
France are the clear favourites in the outright winner market. However, all of the remaining sides started out among the leading pre-tournament contenders.
Has a major outsider ever won the World Cup?
Only eight nations have ever won the World Cup. Uruguay’s triumph in 1950 over hosts and strong favorites Brazil is the clearest example of an outsider lifting the trophy. Since then, the tournament has always been won by an established football power, but not always the outright favorites.
Should I back one favorite or several contenders?
Spreading your trades across several contenders can reduce risk. In an expanded World Cup, even the best teams can quickly exit the tournament with one bad performance in the knockout stage. There will be shock results, so backing a favorite, as well as one or two value outsiders, may be the smart approach.