Our betting expert expects a really tight game in Austin, with both teams potentially failing to score.
Best predictions for USA vs Ecuador
- Tie @ +240 with bet365
- Under 2.5 goals @ -149 with bet365
- BTTS - No @ -120 with bet365
All odds are courtesy of bet365, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
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Stalemate in Austin
Ecuador’s default tactic in qualifying was to keep it tight at the back and make themselves difficult to beat. That approach has served them well so far, so Sebastian Beccacece doesn’t have a reason to change his tactic heading into next summer.
La Tri drew 44% of their qualifiers. They’d been involved in four straight goalless draws before edging out Argentina 1-0 in Guayaquil. There was little at stake in that fixture, as both sides were already guaranteed a place at the World Cup. Despite that, it still didn’t feature plenty of goals.
USA matches tend to see more action, but this will be a very different kind of test for Pochettino’s team. They’re not playing well enough to justify their status as clear favourites. Backing a draw with an implied probability of 29.4% seems to offer better value.
- USA vs Ecuador Prediction 1: Tie @ +240 with bet365
Visitors to keep it tight
The onus will be on the United States as the home team to dictate the tempo. Their chances are aided by the absence of Ecuador’s key player, Moises Caicedo. Gonzalo Plata is another significant player who will be sidelined. This is a major issue, as he is often the player who creates the most chances.
However, that shouldn’t change the South American side’s solid basic structure. They had to play for 40 minutes without Caicedo after he was sent off in their last match. They still managed to prevent Argentina from scoring, who registered just 0.41 xG in that match, and failed to hit the target once.
Their opponents this weekend will hope Christian Pulisic can be the difference maker. He has already registered four goals and two assists for Milan in Serie A this term. However, he doesn’t have as much quality around him in this US team, and will find this Ecuador defence tough to score against.
- USA vs Ecuador Prediction 2: Under 2.5 goals @ - 149 with bet365
At least one team to fire blanks
Heading into this friendly, there have been 450 minutes of football played in Ecuador matches without a goal being scored from open play. Only Enner Valencia’s penalty against Argentina troubled the scorers during that period.
That trend was largely reflected across their entire 18-match qualifying campaign, which saw an average of just 1.06 goals per game. While their ability to score only 14 goals was a cause for concern, they finished with the best defensive record by far, having conceded only five times.
The USA have been inconsistent under Pochettino. None of their last four matches against teams from outside the Concacaf region have seen both teams score.
Given Ecuador’s recent results, there is value in backing BTTS - No with an implied probability of 54.5%.
- USA vs Ecuador Prediction 3: BTTS - No @ -120 with bet365
Our analysis: Form of both teams
The USA’s preparations for the World Cup, which they will mostly host, have not gone as expected. Mauricio Pochettino’s side suffered home friendly defeats to Turkey and Switzerland in June. Additionally, they lost 2-1 to Mexico in the Concacaf Gold Cup final the following month.
The September international break featured mixed results, with a 2-0 friendly defeat to South Korea, followed by a 2-0 win over Japan.
Meanwhile, Ecuador were excellent during World Cup qualifying, having lost only two of their 18 matches in South America. They finished above the likes of Brazil and Colombia, and second only to world champions Argentina, who they beat 1-0 in their last match.
Probable lineups for USA vs Ecuador
USA expected lineup: Turner, Freeman, Ream, Richards, Robinson, McKennie, Roldan, Aaronson, Pulisic, Balogun, Zendejas
Ecuador expected lineup: Galindez, Torres, Pacho, Ordonez, Franco, Angulo, Vite, Ortiz, Preciado, Paez, Valencia