Premier League winner odds: Value pick emerges after midweek matches

Manchester City are very close to the Gunners, while Aston Villa aren’t too far behind. Meanwhile, Liverpool have a very outside chance.

All odds are courtesy of US Sportsbooks, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.

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Arsenal

After a brilliant start to the season, Mikel Arteta’s team reached the top of the Premier League table after gameweek seven and has maintained that position since. They are in good form and show no signs of slowing down. The Londoners are scoring plenty, but their defensive efforts have really made the difference.

The 4-1 domination of in-form Aston Villa on Tuesday night was a huge statement victory, too. Although their performance levels had recently declined, even while securing results, that changed against the Villans. Arteta’s men secured a dominant win at the Emirates Stadium with a highly effective offensive display.

Arsenal’s summer transfer activity appeared promising at the time, and their subsequent progress has been exceptional. They’ve got real squad depth now, which they lacked last season, and are in great shape to clinch the title. Achieving 14 victories in 19 matches is a record typical of league champions.

The Gunners have demonstrated the necessary qualities to win the title, particularly their ability to secure wins even when not playing at their best.

Manchester City

Pep Guardiola has played exceptional football recently. They’ve closed the gap on Arsenal with a long winning streak in the league, and they’ve been highly effective in front of goal. Scoring 43 goals in 18 matches is a significant achievement.

They also happen to have one of the most devastating attackers in the world, as Erling Haaland continues to record exceptional statistics. Combined with the high quality of his teammates, it truly is a winning combination. It appears certain that City will challenge Arsenal until the end of the season.

However, their inconsistent start to the campaign may ultimately hinder their title chances. Despite some key absences, they’ve maintained a really strong run of form for several months, and they have the squad to continue this run. Their upcoming match away at Sunderland will be fascinating, especially after the league leaders established a five-point gap on Tuesday.

While the Citizens are expected to remain in contention, Arsenal may not concede enough points to lose their lead.

Aston Villa

The Villans have been remarkable this season. Prior to Monday night, they had won 13 of their previous 14 matches and were close to Arsenal at the top of the table. However, that winning streak ended abruptly in London as the Gunners scored four goals against them.

Unai Emery’s troops are now six points behind the leaders, which is a significant gap as the second half of the season begins. Although the men from Birmingham are capable of bouncing back, they now require multiple mistakes from their rivals to close the gap. However, with players like Morgan Rogers, Ollie Watkins, and others shining, Villa are expected to continue their successful 2025/26 campaign.

January could prove to be decisive for them. With some very winnable games approaching, Emery’s side should have a clearer understanding of their objectives by the beginning of February.

While a title win seems unlikely, third place is a more realistic target, and Villa are currently performing beyond expectations.

Liverpool

The Reds have overcome their early-season slump and will host Leeds United this week, having won seven of their last eight games across all competitions. Arne Slot is likely pleased with this improvement, though their 13-point deficit to Arsenal may be too large to overcome in the title race.

Liverpool have plenty of quality in their ranks. Although not all summer signings integrated immediately, they remain a very strong side. Now that they have recovered their form, they are expected to reduce the gap at the top of the table.

However, surpassing Manchester City in second place and Arsenal in first remains a difficult task. Unfortunately for the Merseysiders, that poor run between September and November was a major setback. Even with Hugo Ekitike’s brilliant form and their improving performances, they are unlikely to mount a real title challenge.

Liverpool could finish the season strongly, but aren’t expected to be anywhere near the top two positions by May.