Our betting expert expects Dominik Szoboszlai to score and Liverpool’s defence to hold firm at Anfield.
Best bets for Liverpool vs Chelsea
- Liverpool - Moneyline @ -115
- Dominik Szoboszlai to score anytime @ +280
- First half - Chelsea to score under 0.5 goals @ -145
All odds are courtesy of US Sportsbooks, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
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Chelsea’s misery to continue at Anfield
There was a fresh low in a poor season for Chelsea earlier this week. Their home defeat against Forest marked their longest league losing streak in 33 years. Joao Pedro’s 93rd-minute consolation strike did at least end a five-game goal drought for the Blues in the English top flight.
Chelsea’s season now boils down to the FA Cup final. McFarlane initially got a reaction in his first game back as caretaker coach. He oversaw a 1-0 semi-final win over Leeds, even though the Londoners created just 0.39 xG.
There are clearly problems at both ends of the pitch for Chelsea right now. While Liverpool are not entirely convincing either, the Reds have still won 59% of their home league games. They should have enough quality to see off their struggling opponents on Saturday.
- Liverpool vs Chelsea Prediction 1: Liverpool - Moneyline @ -115
Szoboszlai to step up for the Reds
Liverpool are dealing with a host of selection issues right now. They are particularly short up front, with Hugo Ekitike injured, while Alexander Isak is a doubt. That may again see several players pushed into more advanced roles.
Dominik Szoboszlai was used further up the pitch at Old Trafford last time out. He scored a goal and an assist in his team’s 3-2 defeat. He’s one of the players who should offer a goal threat for Liverpool, despite the shortage of options up top.
The Hungarian international has scored 13 times across all competitions this term for the Reds. He’s averaging 2.0 shots per game in the Premier League. With an implied probability of 25%, the 25-year-old is at value as an anytime goalscorer bet.
- Liverpool vs Chelsea Prediction 2: Dominik Szoboszlai to score anytime @ +280
Liverpool to keep it tight before the break
One of Liverpool’s strengths this season has been how they’ve started matches at Anfield. They’ve netted 18 first-half goals in the Premier League in front of their own fans. Meanwhile, it’s just three goals conceded before the break on home soil.
Just 17% of the goals they’ve let in at home have come in the first half. That suggests a misfiring Chelsea side will struggle to break down the Reds' defence in the opening period.
The Blues haven’t netted a first-half goal in the league since Joao Pedro struck at Villa Park two months ago. That set up a 4-1 victory, but they’ve only netted once in the Premier League overall since then.
Key man Cole Palmer is among the visiting players who is badly out of form. He has gone 11 games without a goal for club and country since netting in the win over Aston Villa.
Overall, backing Chelsea to score under 0.5 first-half goals seems good with an implied probability of 58.1%.
- Liverpool vs Chelsea Prediction 3: First half - Chelsea to score under 0.5 goals @ -145
Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction - Liverpool 2-0 Chelsea
- Goalscorers prediction - Liverpool: Dominik Szoboszlai, Florian Wirtz
Liverpool still have work to do to clinch Champions League qualification. A 3-2 defeat against Man Utd last time out was the latest setback in a tough season for Arne Slot. The Dutchman had overseen three straight Premier League victories before that against Fulham, Everton, and Crystal Palace.
It is an even bleaker picture for Chelsea, who have lost their last six Premier League matches. The Blues can no longer finish in the top five, after a 3-1 home defeat against a much-changed Nottingham Forest side.
There is at least an FA Cup final to look forward to for Chelsea next weekend. Calum McFarlane will want to see an improved performance from his team before that.
Probable lineups for Liverpool vs Chelsea
Liverpool expected lineup: Woodman, Robertson, Van Dijk, Konate, Jones, Gravenberch, Mac Allister, Gakpo, Szoboszlai, Frimpong, Wirtz
Chelsea expected lineup: Jorgensen, Cucurella, Chalobah, Colwill, Gusto, Lavia, Caicedo, Neto, Fernandez, Palmer, Pedro