Our betting expert expects Raphinha to score, with Barcelona securing progress thanks to a strong second half.
Best Predictions for Barcelona vs Newcastle United
- Barcelona Moneyline & Both teams to score @ +150
- Raphinha to score anytime @ +150
- Second half - Barcelona @ -120
All odds are courtesy of US Sportsbooks, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
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Barca to progress following open second leg
Newcastle showed enough last Tuesday to suggest they will be competitive at Camp Nou. Their physicality and pace caused real problems for Barcelona. The Magpies had 16 shots and won nine corners across the 90 minutes.
With Barca still missing their regular full-backs to injury, the visitors should target the flanks. They’ll also be able to call upon Anthony Gordon. He has already scored 10 Champions League goals this term, but illness prevented the England international from starting the first leg.
Despite that, a home win still stands out as the most likely outcome. Barcelona have won all 12 matches at Camp Nou since returning to their freshly-renovated stadium in November. They’ve got a 95% win ratio in front of their own fans overall this season.
That suggests backing Barcelona to win and both teams to score offers value, with an implied probability of 40%.
- Barcelona vs Newcastle United Prediction 1:Barcelona Moneyline & Both teams to score @ +150
Raphinha to threaten on the left
Lewis Hall did an excellent job of containing Yamal in the first leg. Raphinha wasn’t at his best on the other flank either, but he returned to form with a weekend hat-trick.
The Brazilian appears capable of exposing potential weaknesses on the right side of Newcastle’s defence. He thrived in the Champions League last term, with 13 goals in 14 appearances. Despite injury problems, he still netted once every 139 minutes across La Liga and UCL matches this term.
Raphinha averages 2.5 shots per game in this competition. He opened his European tally by scoring in a 4-1 win over Copenhagen in Barca’s last Champions League home fixture. He is well placed to get on the scoresheet again, with an implied probability of 40%.
- Barcelona vs Newcastle United Prediciton 2:Raphinha to score anytime @ +150
Hosts to pull clear after the break
Newcastle’s main worry is that this fixture could stretch them too far. It has been a hectic start to 2026, with this already their 22nd fixture in all competitions. Eddie Howe still named a relatively strong side at Chelsea at the weekend, and fatigue could set in after the break.
Barcelona are particularly strong after the break. Their second-half goal difference in this season’s Champions League stands at +10, compared to -2 in the first half. Meanwhile, they’ve only conceded two goals at home all season in La Liga after the interval.
They do have depth, with the likes of Robert Lewandowski, Dani Olmo and Marcus Rashford expected to only make the bench. That could give them the edge the longer this game wears on.
By contrast, Newcastle have been much stronger in the first half this term. Nine of the 11 goals they’ve conceded in Europe have come after the interval. That suggests there’s value in backing the hosts in the second-half market, with an implied probability of 54.6%.
- Barcelona vs Newcastle United Prediction 3:Second half - Barcelona @ -120
Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction - Barcelona 3-1 Newcastle United
- Goalscorers prediction - Barcelona: Raphinha x2, Fermin Lopez - Newcastle United: Harvey Barnes
Newcastle had the better of last week’s meeting, with Harvey Barnes breaking through after 86 minutes. However, a late penalty from Lamine Yamal levelled the tie 1-1 ahead of the second leg.
The Magpies responded with an excellent 1-0 away win against Chelsea on Saturday. Their overall form is mixed, with three wins and three defeats in their last seven games.
Barcelona also enjoyed a weekend victory. Hansi Flick rested Yamal, but his side still won 5-2 at home to Sevilla. Since back-to-back losses in February, they’ve won five out of six in all competitions.
Probable lineups for Barcelona vs Newcastle United
Barcelona expected lineup: J. Garcia, Cancelo, Cubarsi, Araujo, E. Garcia, Pedri, Bernal, Raphinha, Fermin, Yamal, Ferran
Newcastle United expected lineup: Ramsdale, Hall, Thiaw, Burn, Trippier, Joelinton, Ramsey, Tonali, Barnes, Gordon, Elanga