With the teams above them faltering, Gian Piero Gasperini’s side are hoping to take advantage, while Como also remain in contention.
| Serie A top-four finish | Odds |
|---|---|
| Milan | -500 |
| Juventus | -250 |
| Roma | +150 |
| Como | +350 |
Odds courtesy of US Sportsbook. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
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Milan
With a three-point lead on Roma in fifth place, Milan are in a strong position with only three games remaining. Significantly, they also hold the head-to-head advantage over I Giallorossi. That helps explain why they are given an 83.3% chance of finishing in the top four.
Their poor form raises questions about whether they’ll get over the line. Massimiliano Allegri’s team have lost five of their previous 10 league matches.
The goals have completely dried up, with I Rossoneri netting just once in their last five Serie A outings. Their second-highest scorer, Christian Pulisic, remains without a goal in 2026. Meanwhile, Rafael Leao is on a seven-game goal drought, with their early-season attacking threat greatly depleted.
Those factors make it hard to see any value in backing Milan at their current price. However, they do have a relatively favourable run-in, which suggests they’ll just get over the line. Allegri’s side host an out-of-form Atalanta next, before matches against Genoa and Cagliari, who have nothing to play for.
Juventus
If Roma or Como are going to gatecrash the top four, Juventus seem more vulnerable than Milan. That’s despite the 10-game unbeaten streak they are on in all competitions.
A 1-1 home draw against 19th-placed Verona last time out has left La Vecchia Signora looking over their shoulder. That unexpected setback suggests it may go to the wire again. Juventus edged out Roma in the top-four race in the final 20 minutes of the 2024/25 season.
This time around, Juve hold a one-point lead and the head-to-head advantage over the same rival. However, they have some potentially tricky games still to play.
Their final three opponents are Lecce, Fiorentina, and Torino. Juventus are yet to beat any of those sides this season. By contrast, Roma have a 100% record against the teams they still have to play.
Luciano Spalletti’s side won’t get any favours on the road at relegation-threatened Lecce next time out. It’ll be a similar story on the final weekend when the Derby della Mole takes place.
Torino haven’t won any of their previous 23 matches against their city rivals, but they have drawn the last two. A repeat of the outcome could do serious damage to Juventus’ top-four credentials. Overall, the Turin outfit look too short at their current price.
Roma
The momentum is certainly with Roma. They’ve taken 10 points from their last four games. Only champions Inter can match that return over the same period.
With Juventus and Milan both slipping up, Gian Piero Gasperini’s side will believe that three wins should be enough. Seven points out of a potential nine would also give the side from the capital a fighting chance.
Anything less than that may not be enough. Roma’s poor head-to-head record means they need more points than Milan and Juventus. They’d also likely finish below Como in the event of a tie, given their goal difference is much inferior.
Like Juventus, they also face city rivals who will relish the chance to dent their top-four challenge. However, Roma can take confidence from a return of 10 points from their last four meetings with Lazio.
They also have to travel to Parma and Verona, neither of whom are competing for anything. With 10 goals scored and only one conceded in their last four outings, Roma are capable of winning those games.
Should the teams ranked third through fifth repeat their earlier-season results against their remaining opponents, Roma would prevail. In that scenario, I Giallorossi would finish on 73 points, Milan on 72, and Juventus on 68. That adds to the sense that Roma are the value pick in Serie A’s top-four race.
Como
It has been a really positive season for Como, who look sure to qualify for Europe. However, their youthful squad has struggled to handle the pressure of the run-in.
They’ve won just one of their previous six games in all competitions. That included a 3-2 Coppa Italia semi-final defeat to Inter, when they let a two-goal lead slip at San Siro. Without any sense of momentum, it’ll be tough for them to bounce back and win their final three league fixtures.
The run-in is favourable for Cesc Fabregas’ side. They still have to play two of the bottom three, while their other match is against mid-table Parma. However, their final day trip to Cremonese could be tricky if their opponents still have a chance of staying up.
Given they trail Milan by five points and have an inferior head-to-head record, Como will struggle to catch I Rossoneri. That means they’ll almost certainly need to finish above both Juventus and Roma to qualify for the Champions League.
With those sides in much better form, it’s hard to see any reason to back I Lariani for a top-four finish.