Four wins in their last five EPL games have seen Brighton move into sixth place. A win against Newcastle could solidify their Europa League hopes.
Best bets for Newcastle United vs Brighton
- Newcastle or Brighton & Both teams to score (Yes) @ +145 with bet365
- Over 3.5 goals @ +175 with bet365
- Newcastle (1st goal) @ -111 with bet365
All odds are courtesy of bet365, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
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Backing either team to win and goals at both ends
Newcastle’s inability to secure ties at home is one of the primary reasons why they have fallen into the bottom half of the table. They have tied just two of their home games this season, losing almost as many (7) as they have won (8). It is not difficult to see why the pressure on Eddie Howe is increasing.
Brighton have tied only five of their 17 away games as well. A tie is unlikely to help them retain sixth place this weekend. Albion will target the victory, while Newcastle require the win to attempt to reclaim a top-half finish.
In the head-to-head records, both teams have found the net in seven of their last eight matches. Meanwhile, eight of Newcastle’s last 10 games in all competitions have resulted in both teams scoring.
That’s why we’ve paired a double chance bet on either team winning with a back of both teams finding the net. Based on all of the above, this is the best value bet from our trio of Newcastle vs Brighton predictions.
- Newcastle United vs Brighton Prediction 1: Newcastle or Brighton & Both teams to score (Yes) @ +145 with bet365
Newcastle’s best form of defence is to attack
Aside from AFC Bournemouth, no team in the top 14 of the Premier League has conceded more goals than Newcastle. This is partially due to injuries disrupting team chemistry, while the demanding nature of their Champions League schedule also had a negative impact.
On average, Brighton have scored two goals in their last five EPL games. The Seagulls may improve on this record at St James’ Park. Similarly, Newcastle could perform strongly and score two or more goals.
They have actually netted two or more goals in six (66%) of their last nine home games in the league. We can back four or more goals on Saturday afternoon at a probability of just 38.17%.
- Newcastle United vs Brighton Prediction 2: Over 3.5 goals @ +175 with bet365
Magpies expected to open the scoring
Brighton have scored first in less than a third (29%) of their away league games this season. By contrast, Newcastle have scored first in almost three-quarters (71%) of their home league games in 2025/26.
Therefore, it’s surprising that the betting markets indicate there’s only a 51.28% chance of the Magpies scoring first on Saturday. Albion have been losing at half time in 53% of their away games so far this season. Their away form has prevented them from being genuine challengers for the fifth and final UCL qualification spot.
The average time of Brighton’s first away goal conceded per game is the 27th minute, which is lower than the 31st-minute league average.
- Newcastle United vs Brighton Prediction 3: Newcastle (1st goal) @ -111 with bet365
Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction - Newcastle 1-3 Brighton
- Goalscorers prediction - Newcastle: Wissa - Brighton: Rutter, Minteh, Mitoma
This Saturday’s match is a fascinating encounter between two teams moving in opposite directions in the Premier League.
Newcastle have now lost four league games consecutively. Magpies manager Eddie Howe is under increasing pressure, as United are now just three points above 16th-placed Nottingham Forest. Newcastle have lost as many league games as 18th-placed Tottenham (16) at the time of writing.
The Magpies struggled to cope with the intensity of playing Premier League and Champions League football in the first half of the season. There are genuine signs of the squad being fatigued with four games of the domestic campaign remaining. Howe has also had to cope with a lengthy and persistent injury list throughout the season, with players such as Gordon, Schar, and Livramento currently sidelined.
Meanwhile, Brighton are chasing qualification for European football next season. Fabian Hurzeler’s side have found their rhytm, clinching 13 points from a possible 15 in recent weeks.
The Seagulls’ defensive solidity has been the foundation of their season so far. They have conceded just 39 goals, which is the joint-third lowest total in the division. Albion have also been particularly prolific recently, scoring 10 goals in their last five matches since losing at home to Arsenal.
Probable lineups for Newcastle United vs Brighton
Newcastle United expected lineup: Pope, Burn, Miley, Botman, Thiaw, Joelinton, Tonali, Ramsey, Willock, Murphy, Wissa
Brighton & Hove Albion expected lineup: Verbruggen, Wieffer, Kadioglu, Boscagli, van Hecke, Baleba, Gross, Minteh, Mitoma, Hinshelwood, Rutter