Our betting expert expects a low-scoring contest at Balaidos to end with Celta winning narrowly on the night.
Best bets for Celta Vigo vs SC Freiburg
- Under 2.5 goals @ -111
- Both teams to score - No @ +104
- Second half - Tie @ +144
All odds are courtesy of US Sportsbooks, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
- The BetMGM promo code gives players sports bonuses at sign-up
- Learn about more of the best sportsbook promos in the US with our expert guide
- Check out the top sports betting sites via our expert guide
Tight game to see Freiburg advance
With a three-goal advantage, Freiburg are likely to adopt a highly defensive approach in the second leg. That tends to be how they play away from home in Europe. Their previous three Europa League road fixtures have produced just two goals across 270 minutes.
In the Round of 16, away to Genk, Julian Schuster’s side created just 0.30 xG. They defended deep and in numbers. Despite their opponents having 17 shots, the Belgians failed to create a single big chance. Their trip to Lille in January followed a similar pattern and also ended in a 1-0 defeat.
Under 2.5 goals has been a winning bet in 64% of their Europa League matches this term. It seems to offer value again, particularly with Celta’s level dropping in their past two games. Borja Iglesias, the home team’s top scorer, has also gone seven appearances without a goal for club and country.
- Celta Vigo vs SC Freiburg Bet 1: Under 2.5 goals @ -111
Defences on top in the second leg
This is shaping up to be a really difficult night for Celta Vigo. They need to break down a Freiburg backline that conceded just four times in eight matches during the league phase. That was the second-best record in the competition.
Including their knockout matches, Freiburg average just 0.55 goals conceded per 90 minutes in the Europa League. Both teams have scored in only two of their last nine matches in the competition. They won’t show much ambition in the second leg, but their defence should be strong enough to seal an aggregate win.
Celta matches tend to be higher scoring, but they have run into trouble against teams that sit deep. Getafe, Espanyol and Oviedo have all beaten them to nil at Balaidos in La Liga this term. Backing at least one team to fail to score in this match looks like a solid option, with an implied probability of 48.8%.
- Celta Vigo vs SC Freiburg Bet 2: Both teams to score - No @ +104
Frustrating second half in store for Celta
Worryingly for Celta, Freiburg are particularly strong at the back in the second half. The Germans have conceded just two second-half goals in 11 Europa League fixtures this season. That suggests they are well-equipped to survive the heavy pressure they’re likely to be under after the break.
The Galicians have performed better in the first half of this competition. They have a goal difference of +5 in the opening 45 minutes. After the interval, they scored and conceded 11.
They collapsed from 3-0 up to lose 4-3 in an extraordinary home game against Alaves in La Liga last month. That further underlines their struggles to maintain control late in matches.
While Freiburg are very unlikely to push many players forward, this could be another match where Celta toil after the break. Backing a tie in the second half could be the smart bet.
- Celta Vigo vs SC Freiburg Bet 3: Second half - Tie @ +144
Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction - Celta Vigo 1-0 SC Freiburg
- Goalscorers prediction - Celta Vigo: Ferran Jutgla
Celta Vigo headed into this quarter-final as the favourites to advance. However, they put in one of their worst displays of the season in the first leg. Freiburg cruised to a 3-0 victory thanks to goals from Vincenzo Grifo, Jan-Niklas Beste and Matthias Ginter.
Worse was to follow on Sunday for the Spanish side. They were beaten 3-0 again, this time at home by bottom club Real Oviedo in La Liga. Claudio Giraldez’s team had won six out of ten in all competitions prior to those defeats.
Freiburg had won just two of their previous seven matches heading into the first leg. However, they stepped up when it mattered last week and also beat Mainz 1-0 in the Bundesliga on Sunday.
Probable lineups for Celta Vigo vs SC Freiburg
Celta Vigo expected lineup: Radu, Alonso, Aidoo, J. Rodriguez, Mingueza, Moriba, Vecino, Carreira, Swedberg, Jutgla, Iglesias
SC Freiburg expected lineup: Atubolu, Makengo, Lienhart, Ginter, Treu, Eggestein, Manzambi, Grifo, Suzuki, Beste, Matanovic