FIFA 19 Ultimate Team Pack Odds: What are the chances of getting Ronaldo or Messi in a pack?

Lionel Messi FUT19
EA Sports
This year's game allows FUT players to see what their chances of pulling a premium player are before they open packs in the store

FIFA Ultimate Team is the most popular game mode in the annual football game, with FIFA gamers spending virtual and real money in order to build their elite squads of world superstars.

Many people spend a lot of their hard-earned cash on FIFA Ultimate Team packs every year and starting with FIFA 19, EA Sports is disclosing the odds of getting a highly-rated player in each pack. This is to make it more transparent when buying points on the store to purchase packs and highlights just how rare (or common) some players are in FIFA 19.

Packs can be bought in the FIFA Ultimate Team store using in-game coins or FIFA Points, and range from Bronze Packs to Gold Packs as well as limited time and often limited availability Promo Packs. Bronze Packs are the cheapest to buy, but also offer the lowest-value rewards - usually around three bronze players and then various consumable and club items. Promo Packs are the most expensive but are the best chance of getting elite players.

Often, during special promotions such as Ultimate Scream for Halloween and FUTmas, EA Sports release limited availability packs on the store which are sold to the first X amount of buyers and then disappear from the market. Other Promo Packs are available for a specified time period such as 24 or 48 hours but are limited to 5 or 10 per person.

Bronze, Silver and Gold Packs are always available, but sometimes it's worth checking these categories on the Store as there are often Jumbo versions of the Premium Packs available that provide an extra rare card - and thus an increased chance of opening a high-rated player.

Which packs give the best players?

FIFA 19 Packs

The most valuable items in FIFA Ultimate Team are rare gold players, which have not only the best quick sell value, but also the highest price on the transfer market. Usually, the higher rating a player has, the higher their price will be (there are notable exceptions like big names playing in smaller leagues like Andres Iniesta).

The Promo Packs offer the best chance of getting the best players, but these are not always available in the Store. They tend to be available at the weekends and especially during events or holidays e.g. Christmas, St Patrick's Day or when Team of the Year or Team of the Season is announced and in packs.

The Jumbo Rare Players Pack and Ultimate Pack are the most sought-after - and most expensive - packs every year. They cost over 100k coins each (or 2000+ points) but contain only rare gold players and thus have a much higher probability of getting an elite player like Cristiano Ronaldo or Lionel Messi.

FIFA Ultimate Team packs can be bought on the console, on the Web App or on the Companion App. Some players believe that they have greater "pack luck" when opening packs on the console than on the apps or vice-versa, but this is most likely a placebo effect or confirmation bias on their part, as the odds are the same regardless of where the packs are opened.

Complete FIFA 19 pack odds

FIFA 19 Pack Odds

On the Store, you can now check the "Pack Probabilities" of each pack before you purchase them, allowing you to see what chances you have of claiming players of particular ratings. These are displayed as a percentage with a Premium Gold Pack having a 100 per cent chance of containing a 75 or higher-rated player, a 20 per cent chance of an 82+ Player and a 4.5 per cent chance of an 84+ player.

During some events such as the Champions League Road to the Final event, extra promo packs become available in the store. These provide probabilities for the overall player range as well as information on how rare the special items are in packs. For example, the 50,000-coin Rare Player Pack has a 5.2 per cent chance of opening a player rated 88 or more, but also a 3.4 per cent chance of revealing a "UCL Road to the Final" player.

In the first week of FIFA 19, Ones to Watch cards were also in packs, but were so rare that the percentage indicated in the "Pack Probabilities" section was listed as "Less than 1%". Pack odds are also per pack and are not cumulative, so it is a lottery. Opening 100 Premium Gold Packs would not guarantee that you receive 20 Gold 82+ players, rather each pack has a 20 per cent chance, so you could end up with fewer than 20 if luck was not on your side.

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The Probabilities are updated regularly during the year, especially during promotions, to indicate the chances of opening higher rated players. Before buying a pack, you can see not only the probabilities of that pack, but also the date the last percentage was calculated at.

Gold Pack Odds

Pack Price 75+ 82+ 83+ 84+ 85+ 86+ 87+ 88+ 90+
Gold Pack 5000 100% 9.3% 3.4%            
Premium Gold Pack 7500 100% 20%   4.4%          
Premium Gold Jumbo 15000 100% 42%     4.7%        
Premium Electrum Players 12500 100% 41%     4.3%        
Gold Players Premium 25000 100% 59%       3.6%      
Rare Gold 25000 100% 58%       4.0%      
Mega Pack 35000 100% 79%         4.5%    
Prime Gold Players 45000 100% 80%         4.0%    
Rare Player Pack 50000 100% 95%           5.2%  
Jumbo Rare Player Pack 100000 100% 99%             2.9%
Ultimate Pack 125000 100% 99%             3.4%

Silver Pack Odds

Pack Price 65+ 70+ 73+
Silver Pack 2500 100% 61% 11%
Premium Silver Pack 3750 100% 72% 23%
Silver Players 5000 100% 97% 38%

Bronze Pack Odds

Pack Price 45+ 60+ 63+
Bronze Pack 400 100% 87% 40%
Premium Bronze Pack 750 100% 92% 58%