Finland have made a flying start to their Group C1 Nations League campaign, with seven points from their first three games. They’ve scored nine goals, conceding only one. Belarus have picked up four points from their opening trio of fixtures, and all four of their goals came against San Marino.
Bet of the Day - Belarus vs Finland
Odds courtesy of Betfair. Correct at time of publication and subject to change
Finland to Win and Under 2.5 Goals at odds of 13/5 with Betfair
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History states that this won’t be a goal fest
Although Finland have averaged three goals per game in their first three opening matches, a tighter affair feels likelier against Belarus. All four of their last meetings since 2013 have featured two or less goals. Actually, their most recent game a week ago ended in a goalless draw in a match played in Finland.
Finland are looking much better and tighter since that match played only a week ago. Unfortunately, seven of their nine goals came in a win against ten-man San Marino, which distorts the data somewhat. This would mean that they’ve only averaged a goal per game in their other two games against Belarus and Albania.
We still think they’ve built up enough momentum to win against the Belarusian side. Belarus’ ‘home’ game is being played at Stadion Rudolf Illovszky in Budapest, Hungary, so home advantage is not a thing here. For that reason, we’re backing Finland to win with two or less goals scored at a 28% implied probability.
Today's Bet of the Day: Finland to Win and Under 2.5 Goals at odds of 13/5 with BetfairBet of the Day Record: Last Five Days
| Tip (Last Five Days) | Win/Loss | Odds |
| Cienciano to win and Over 2.5 goals | Loss | 4/6 |
| Azerbaijan to win and Under 3.5 goals | Loss | 1/1 |
| Kazakhstan to win and Under 3.5 goals | Loss | 11/10 |
| Salford City to win and Under 3.5 goals | Win | 7/5 |
| France vs Belgium - Under 2.5 Goals | Loss | 13/8 |

