Arsenal saw their perfect start to the season come to an end last weekend at Old Trafford, falling 3-1 to rivals Manchester United. The Gunners controlled the play for long periods and had their chances, but were ultimately undone too easily by United’s lightning-quick counterattacks.
The Gunners (5-0-1) still sit atop the Premier League table heading into Matchweek 7 and will look to move past the disappointing result when they host Everton (0-4-2) at the Emirates Stadium.
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The Toffees have yet to win a match this campaign, but showed a fighting spirit in holding Liverpool to a goalless draw in last weekend’s action-packed Merseyside derby.
Let’s dig into what should be an entertaining match between Arsenal and Everton.
John Arlia’s 2022-23 EPL Betting Record: 7-11-0 (-3.91 units)
Arsenal vs Everton Odds
- 3-Way Handicap: Arsenal -275 | Draw +450 | Everton +750
- Over/Under Goals: Over 2.5 (-160) | Under 2.5 (+115)
- Both Teams to Score: Yes (+100) | No (-135)
Arsenal vs Everton odds are current as of Monday, Sept. 5 at BetMGM Sportsbook.
Despite the defeat last weekend at Old Trafford, Arsenal are listed as heavy favorites in this contest. That isn’t much of a surprise since these teams currently sit at opposite ends of the table.
Arsenal vs Everton Betting Tips
Expect goals after scoreless Merseyside Derby
Everton’s contest with Liverpool last weekend ended nil-nil, but that game was far from a bore as both teams played some free-flowing football and created plenty of chances.
Center back Conor Coady had a goal ruled out for the hosts, who had goalkeeper Jordan Pickford to thank for keeping the Reds off the scoresheet. The England netminder made eight saves in all, but none more crucial than his fingertip stop to push Mohamed Salah’s strike onto the post late in stoppage time.
The expected goal stats told the true tale, with four goals nearly evenly split between the two sides (Everton 1.72 xG, Liverpool 2.19 xG).
Arsenal’s ability to prevent counter attacks will make the difference
Despite playing away from home, Arsenal maintained 60% of the possession against Manchester United and controlled the play for long stretches. That ultimately played right into Erik ten Hag’s plans as United was able to dissect the Gunners’ high line with a few quick passes and the threat of Marcus Rashford running in behind.
Arsenal should expect to see a similar plan from Everton, who had their chances on the break against Liverpool in a game where they were often forced to defend. Frank Lampard’s men should’ve done better to convert some of those opportunities into goals, especially on a 5-on-3 break just after the hour mark in which newly-signed Neal Maupay could only find Alisson’s gloves with a close-range strike.
The Toffees have the pace to expose Arsenal on the counter, especially on the wings through Demarai Gray and Anthony Gordon. Whether the Gunners will come back with an adjusted set of tactics to prevent those opportunities remains to be seen.
Everton struggle at the Emirates
Outside of a 2021 meeting played behind closed doors because of the pandemic, Arsenal has had their way with Everton at the Emirates Stadium. Before that, the Toffees had not picked up a point in this fixture since Dec. 2013.
Most recently, the Gunners grabbed a 5-1 home victory over the Toffees on the final day of last season. These clubs also played each other over the summer in Baltimore, with Arsenal cruising to a 2-0 victory behind goals from Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Jesus.
Arsenal vs Everton Prediction
Arsenal 3-1 Everton
The Gunners will be eager to bounce back against a side they have dominated at home in recent years. There are typically goals in this fixture, and I’m expecting we’ll see a handful more on Sunday.
The performance against United was better than the result, which is an encouraging sign that Arsenal can get back to their winning ways quickly.
Arsenal vs Everton Best Bets
➕ Over 2.5 Goals (-160) at BetMGM Sportsbook
WAGER: 1.6 Units
Everton games have only exceeded this total once so far this season, but the xG numbers provide reason to believe that the Toffees are starting to create more.
Arsenal has scored at least two goals in each of their home fixtures this season, so if the visitors get on the scoresheet, this prop should hit.
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➕ Multiple Correct Score: 2:1, 3:1 or 4:1 (+310) at BetMGM Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
The Gunners have failed to keep a clean sheet in three straight EPL matches, which is a bit of a worrying sign after posting a pair of shutouts in their first three contests. They’ll also have to regroup after a midweek trip to Zürich, whereas Everton will have the whole week to prepare for this match.
Arsenal’s attacking mentality will make them vulnerable to the counter, but they should still create the majority of the chances. I’m backing Arsenal and the Over, which makes this bet worthwhile as we try to maximize our return.
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