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Premier League PrimerGetty/GOAL

Premier League Primer: Everything comes down to the final day in the top-four race as Chelsea, Nottingham Forest feel the heat

And just like that, the Premier League has some drama. Title race? Sorted. Race for second place? Yep. Relegation? Three teams were down by January.

So, attention must turn to the battle for European football, which has become pretty much everything these days. As a refresher: five teams will qualify for the Champions League, one for the Europa League, and another for the UEFA Conference League. It's all very complicated and a bit silly, but it boils down to the ultimate fact that European football brings both prestige and TV money - which big clubs want.

The holy grail, of course, is the Champions League. Two teams have already booked their spot: Liverpool and Arsenal. Outside of that, though, it gets tasty. Man City, if results go against them, could drop into the Europa League. Cole Palmer's Chelsea are on the brink. Meanwhile, Nottingham Forest have faded late - but still have a chance.

The Premier League has positioned it all very nicely, too, with every game due to kick off at 11 a.m. ET on Sunday. Let the drama unfold.

GOAL US looks at all of those plot points and more in the Premier League Primer, a weekly rundown of what to watch from an American perspective in England's top flight.

  • Newcastle United FC v Chelsea FC - Premier LeagueGetty Images Sport

    Chelsea spent big - now is the time to back it up

    Well, Todd Boehly, time to hope that your big time gamble paid off. It is well chronicled, at this point, that the Toddfather spent billions trying to overhaul this Chelsea team without any real clear idea as to how he should actually do it - or appointing the right people to put everything in place. But it turns out that when you have a lot of money to throw at something, then good things sometimes happen anyway.

    Chelsea were title contenders for approximately three days and after quite a remarkable slump find themselves within touching distance of European football.

    Right now, it's "win and you're in" territory. And the matchup couldn't be more intriguing. Chelsea are currently in fifth, and will guarantee a Champions League spot with a win. But their opponents, Nottingham Forest, are in seventh, just one point behind. It's effectively a winner-take-all game for the right to play in the top tier of European soccer.

    It doesn't get tastier than that, and the City Ground makes for a wonderful spot for such an occasion Sunday at 11 a.m. ET.

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  • FBL-ENG-PR-MAN CITY-BOURNEMOUTHAFP

    Man City, who can just about save face

    The Man City character arc this season has been fascinating. It goes something like this: lose your Ballon d'Or winning center midfielder for the season, draw a lot, lose a lot, fall out of the title race, spend hundreds of millions on young talent in the January transfer window, then use precisely none of it to claw your way into the top four (and lose an FA Cup final along the way.)

    For once, Man City are interesting. It will be curious to see what they do this summer, with a squad that needs to retool.

    Before that, though, there's the issue of this weekend. City need just a point to secure a spot in the Champions League (and could even afford to lose if other results go their way). Odds are, Pep Guardiola will want his men to finish the season strong.

    Fulham will be no easy task, though. The Cottagers' hopes of playing in Europe have faded down the stretch, a poor run of just two wins in five, seeing their season rather splutter to an end. But they could still play spoiler if they beat City at home Sunday at 11 a.m. ET.

  • FBL-ENG-FA CUP-CRYSTAL PALACE-ASTON VILLAAFP

    Aston Villa, who can sneak in

    Of all the clubs who want to crack the top four, Villa's path is probably the most difficult. Not only do they need to win, but they also need to hope that Chelsea drop points. It would seem rather unlikely, considering that Chelsea have won four of five, and Villa have to get their own business sorted.

    Then again, the Villains are traveling to an decrepit Manchester United side that look entirely bereft of belief. Beaten down by a Europa League final loss, the Red Devils have nothing to play for but pride - or whatever remains of it at this point.

    The issue is, you never really know which version of United will show up. Sometimes, the so-called aura activates, and Ruben Amorim's side can be a real tough proposition. Others, they will simply roll over and hand you a result.

    If Villa get their tactics right Sunday at 11 a.m. ET, Ollie Watkins finds the net, and Forest do them a favor in the other fixture, they will enjoy another well-deserved season of Champions League soccer.

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  • Chelsea FC v AFC Bournemouth - Premier LeagueGetty Images Sport

    American ties

    + Redemption time for Tyler Adams, whose form has dipped of late in Bournemouth's back-to-back losses. The midfielder will hope to finish the season strong against relegated Leicester.

    + Chris Richards might still be celebrating the FA Cup final win, and will play in what might be the silliest game of soccer ever, Liverpool and Palace clashing - and high off the vibes of securing silverware.

    + Antonee Robinson's status for Fulham is unclear, as he was left off the USMNT roster, but was still able to play 89 minutes against Brentford midweek.

  • Ruben Amorim Manchester United 2024-25Getty

    Premier League Predictions: Matchday 38

    Match

    Selection

    Odds

    Man Utd vs Aston Villa

    Aston Villa

    -135

    Fulham vs Man City

    Man City

    -165

    Newcastle v Everton

    Newcastle

    -285

    Wolves vs Brentford

    Brentford

    +145

    Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea

    Nottingham Forest

    +200

    Chris Wilson makes Premier League predictions for the weekend:The stakes are high this weekend, so the best strategy would be to back teams that still have something to play for. That’s why we’ve looked at top-five challengers,

    Newcastle, Villa, City and Forest need to win just to secure their positions. Meanwhile, Brentford need to win too and hope for favorable results elsewhere.

    Odds via bet365 & BetMGM, correct as at time of publishing and subject to change.

  • WHERE TO WATCH? WASHINGTON, D.C.

    The immaculately named Queen Vic Pub absolutely nails the British vibe. The food is quality, and you can get Carlsberg on tap, which makes it officially valid according to the arbitrary criteria for this kind of thing.

    Not in D.C.? Check out the best spots to watch the Premier League across the U.S.