Arsenal beware: Man City are right where they want to be in the title race - and they can still get better

City were six points behind Arsenal in early November when Guardiola was asked about the Gunners' early charge. He was highly complimentary of Arteta's side at first when he said, "In the last two or three years in terms of rebuilding a club and a team, then they are there [at the top]. It is exceptional what they are doing and did already for two or three seasons. It looks like every time it is closer and closer."

Then he sought to get into their heads: "But we are in early November and in early November no-one wins the title. You can lose it, but you cannot win it."

That last line was particularly pertinent, as City had gone into November last season in rampant form, unbeaten after dropping just four points in their first nine games. Then came the mother of all hiccups as they lost four matches in a row by an aggregate scoreline of 10-2. 

The last defeat in that sequence was at Liverpool on December 1, after which Guardiola conceded that his side had no chance of catching the Reds and raised six fingers to the baying Anfield faithful - one for each title won - to comfort himself.

In Guardiola's first season, City survived November but had a dismal December, losing three out of their six games, including at home to eventual title winners Chelsea. The message to his team in that press conference in November was clear: Don't let Arsenal run away with it. And City have not. They have chopped a six-point deficit (which actually rose to seven by the end of the month) down to two.

Their latest run of four consecutive wins has not been without drama or concerning moments, with Phil Foden having to rescue the three points after a second-half capitulation against Leeds United before City shipped three goals at Fulham to turn a comfortable 5-1 scoreline into a twitchy 5-4. 

Back-to-back 3-0 wins over Sunderland and Palace have further boosted confidence and left City with something unexpected given their concerning start to the season. They have 34 points from their 16 games, more than in any of their previous four campaigns at the same stage of the season, including when they won the treble in 2022-23 and when they secured a historic fourth successive crown in 2024.

And the bad news for Arsenal is City are nearly always stronger in the second half of the season than the first. Guardiola and his staff deliberately plan the campaign with the objective of the players being as fresh as possible for the business end, and their record in the final 19 games of each season compared to the first 19 says it all. 

City have accrued more points in the second half of the season in five of the last seven years, and on one of the two occasions they were not stronger in the back end, in 2022-23, they eased up after winning the title with three games to spare. The 2017-18 season, when City amassed a record 100 points, is an anomaly as City steamrolled their rivals from the very start. But in every other campaign bar two, they have improved markedly in the back end.

In 2018-19, they were third at the halfway stage of the season but went on to take an astonishing 54 points from a possible 57, pipping Liverpool to the title by a singe point. In the 2023-24 season, they reeled Arsenal back with a similarly ruthless run, winning 16 out of 19 games while remaining unbeaten to to accrue 51 points. The previous season they also overhauled the Gunners, winning 12 matches in a row to make up an eight-point deficit. They earned 44 points from their final 19 games, with the important caveat that they eased up in their final two matches, a draw at Brighton and defeat at Brentford. 

The year before that, when City saw off Liverpool in another thrilling toe-to-toe race, they took 46 points in the second half of the season. That was admittedly one point fewer than in the first half, but it was still an astonishing haul, the third-highest under Guardiola. In the latter half of 2020-21, the first season of that record breaking cycle of four successive crowns, they took 45 points. Even last season, when City returned their lowest points total of the Guardiola era, they roared back, taking 40 points compared to 31 in the first half to finish third. City are well aware of their history of strong finishes, too.

"It’s true that our teams have always been much better in the second part of the season than the first, and hopefully it happens again this season," said Bernardo Silva last week in Madrid. "In the first month, we beat Wolves and then lost to Brighton and Spurs in performances that were not acceptable at our level. When you go to the first international break with one win and two losses, that means you’re not at the Man City level. If you look at the last two months, I would say that points-wise, it has been really good."

Bernardo is one of three players still in the squad (along with Foden and John Stones) to have won all six titles under Guardiola, while Ruben Dias and Rodri have lifted four.

You could say that City have lost some of that experience which has proved so vital to getting them over the line before by parting with the likes of Kyle Walker, Kevin De Bruyne, Ederson and Ilkay Gundogan. But they have gained a host of young players, such as Rayan Cherki, Nico Gonzalez and Nico O'Reilly, who are desperate to win their first major titles and start building a dynasty of their own. As Bernardo put it: "The club made the decision to change a lot of players and give a new dynamic. It’s a different team, full of potential, full of energy." 

After beating Palace, Guardiola emphasised that City had not been at their best, but said they were getting closer: "Still we're not at our top; we see it in some moments during the season. But every time, we can be better and better. We are not in an ideal position, we prefer to be first, but we are close to the top of the league."

For Arsenal, it sounded like a threat.

The scariest thing of all for the Gunners is that City are about to regain one of their most experienced and most pivotal players: Rodri. The Spain midfielder's absence gets mentioned a lot when City do not win, and the fact that they have managed to keep Arsenal within striking range while missing him for more than two months shows that they are not as dependent on Rodri as before. 

The thought of him returning for the second half of the season, when nearly every other player will be entering their peak, only makes the prospect of City toppling Arsenal again seem more inevitable.

The Gunners have had to contend with many injuries in this period, with Gabriel Magalhaes' absence weighing the heaviest. They will be a stronger unit when he resumes playing at the start of 2026, if not before, and they will be further boosted by Kai Havertz's imminent return. 

But given how they have been chased down by City twice before, they should fear another resurgence. After all, City have already got more points than they had at the same stage in those two seasons - and they are only just getting started.