A mega transfer this summer? Said El Mala has a cautionary tale right before his eyes

The data analytics firm is a spin-off of Starlizard, owned by Brighton’s owner Tony Bloom. With the firm’s help, his clubs select players and managers based on statistical parameters. In addition to Brighton, clubs such as Union Saint-Gilloise from Belgium, Heart of Midlothian from Scotland and Melbourne Victory from Australia are also provided with player scouting data.

Bloom holds significant stakes in all these clubs, and all have enjoyed historic success, both in the long and even the short term. Brighton rose rapidly from the third tier to the European Cup, Saint-Gilloise celebrated their first league title in 90 years last season, and the Hearts could follow suit and become Scottish champions for the first time in 86 years.

However, thanks to the firm’s work, Brighton in particular has emerged in recent years as a pioneer in data-driven player scouting, signing players at a bargain price by Premier League standards and then selling them on at a huge profit. Fancy some prominent examples? 

Deniz Undav. According to Jamestown Analytics’ analysis, the current German international – who is now the subject of much debate in the run-up to the World Cup – once moved from third-tier side SV Meppen to Saint-Gilloise. He later joined Bloom’s second club, Brighton, and then VfB Stuttgart.

In January 2019, a certain Alexis Mac Allister moved to Brighton for a mere eight million euros. He was carefully developed whilst still in Argentina at Argentinos Juniors and Boca Juniors, before shining at Brighton for just under three and a half years and finally moving to Liverpool FC in 2023 as a World Cup winner for 42 million euros. 

In August 2021, Brighton struck a deal with Getafe, signing a full-back who had failed to make the grade at Barcelona for €18 million. A year later, Marc Cucurella moved to Chelsea for well over three times that amount (€65 million). Moises Caicedo followed the same path: Brighton signed him from Colombia in 2021 for just under €30 million, loaned him to Beerschot in Belgium, and sold him to the Blues a year and a half later for an incredible €116 million.

These four examples from the recent past, at the very least, are likely to have made an impression on Said El Mala. The detour via Brighton can really only be beneficial to his career and his own market value. It is virtually the perfect career plan for someone like the 19-year-old German, when the move to an absolute top club still seems too big a step after a strong first Bundesliga season at 1. FC Köln, and the pressure to make the definitive breakthrough is not yet upon him.

El Mala is certainly no longer short of offers and interest from those top clubs. Yet the clear favourites in the race to sign the highly talented attacking player are not Arsenal, Chelsea, Bayern Munich, Borussia Dortmund, Inter Milan or Paris Saint-Germain. It is the Seagulls, with whom the El Mala family are even said to have already reached a verbal agreement. Negotiations with Effzeh regarding the transfer terms are now pending, and these have apparently become quite complicated. As Sport Bild reports, Cologne have upped their demands to 50 million euros, and it is questionable whether Brighton will meet this. The deal was actually supposed to be wrapped up at 35 million euros.

Brighton had already offered €20 million last summer – without El Mala having played a single minute in the Bundesliga. A winter transfer for a whopping €30 million is also said to have been rejected by Cologne. 

El Mala is simply too important to the Cologne side, given his attacking contribution even in his debut season, for their key objective of avoiding relegation. Although he often came off the bench as a substitute under the now-sacked manager Lukas Kwasniok, El Mala is by far Cologne’s most important attacking player, having scored ten goals and provided four assists in 27 Bundesliga matches. This is another reason why his situation became increasingly of a political nature as the season progressed. Both for Kwasniok and for national team manager Julian Nagelsmann.

Nagelsmann, having followed Kwasniok’s explanations as to why El Mala was repeatedly left on the bench, decided against selecting him for the DFB squad for the crucial March internationals, which were key to World Cup qualification. According to Nagelsmann, the 19-year-old was still too careless in his defensive work. And that meant he was only playing “50 per cent” for Cologne, which was “too little”. 

However, as Nagelsmann simultaneously gave Lennart Karl a chance at Bayern Munich with a similar number of minutes played, the national coach’s comments were certainly called into question. Despite being left out, El Mala instead caused a stir in the German U21 attack on Tuesday and played a major part in securing victory against Greece in the “final” on the road to next year’s European Championship in Albania and Serbia. El Mala scored his first goal for Antonio Di Salvo’s DFB juniors and even burst into tears after his 1-0 strike. 

Afterwards, he spoke of the “most emotional moment of my life”. But not because of the important goal. On Friday, shortly after the 3-0 qualifying win against Northern Ireland, El Mala had learnt that his grandmother had passed away. Nevertheless, he travelled with the DFB squad to Greece and became the match-winner there. He also expressed his heartfelt thanks to his teammates, who had lifted his spirits “during this difficult time”: “Without you, I wouldn’t have been able to cope with all this. You made it easier for me to deal with the pain and carry on.”

He refrained from any expressions of gratitude, however, following Kwasnijk’s dismissal ahead of the international break. Shortly after 1. FC Köln had made the news public, El Mala posted a celebratory photo with strike partner Ragnar Ache just a few minutes later. Controversial? Definitely. Coincidence? Possible, but given the background, somewhat unlikely.

It is also unlikely that El Mala would be posting celebratory messages if Brighton were to part ways with their manager in the coming weeks and months. Although Fabian Hürzeler is regarded behind the scenes as the driving force behind El Mala’s signing, rumours suggest that his future with the Seagulls is far from certain. And not because the club wants to show him the door, but because other, bigger clubs are said to have him on their radar. But let’s start at the beginning.

Hürzeler went through the biggest crisis of his still-young managerial career in Brighton at the end of last year and the start of this one. No league wins in December, just one in January. In early February, his own fans were jeering him. “You’re getting sacked in the morning,” they chanted after the home defeat to Crystal Palace. Hürzeler spoke of the “toughest moment” of his career.

Since then, the tide has turned. Brighton have won four of their last five league games, including a 2-1 victory over Liverpool. Only against league leaders Arsenal did they suffer a narrow 0-1 defeat. The gap to the European places is now just five points. Hürzeler has managed to turn things around, though in doing so he has, at least for the time being, put one of the club’s objectives on hold: the development of young talent and the generation of transfer fees. 

In times of crisis, the more experienced players in the squad – James Milner, Pascal Groß and Danny Welbeck – stepped up to take responsibility, whilst youngsters such as Yankuba Minteh (21) and Georginio Rutter (23) were initially kept on the bench. But that is no longer to be the case: “They will play a major role in the final part of the season,” announced Hürzeler ahead of the season’s final push and following the temporary lull in the attack.

It is a reflection of the difficult balancing act he has to perform at Brighton. On the one hand, he is expected to take on the league’s established powers – Arsenal, Chelsea, Manchester City, Liverpool and Manchester United – on the pitch. On the other hand, young and promising talents are to be given plenty of playing time to generate revenue.

The fact that the German has mastered this balancing act with flying colours in his first season (8th place) and has now also overcome his first major crisis is said to have sparked interest. According to Sky, Hürzeler is said to be “quite high up” on Manchester City’s shortlist should Pep Guardiola really do step down in the summer. According to The Athletic, he is also said to be a candidate at Bayer Leverkusen, Newcastle United and Tottenham. 

At least contractually, the situation is clear: the 33-year-old manager’s contract runs until 2027, so a substantial transfer fee would be required, which Brighton would insist on. The only question is what Hürzeler wants. And that, in turn, has a direct impact on El Malas’ future.

It seems highly unlikely that the 19-year-old will sign for Brighton if Hürzeler does not stay. This may well be why things have come to a standstill. The risk currently seems too great for El Mala to sign a long-term contract with a club where his biggest supporter – apart from Jamestown Analytics – may not be working there for much longer.

However, should Hürzeler fend off advances from other clubs and even extend his contract at Brighton, El Mala’s move would likely be a done deal. That is no guarantee, however, that the perfect career plan involving a detour via Brighton will pay off immediately. Here, El Mala could look to Brajan Gruda as a cautionary tale, a figure he now has right before his eyes in the U21 national team and the Bundesliga.

The 21-year-old had also come onto Brighton’s radar via Hürzeler and Jamestown Analytics after, like El Mala, he emerged as a Bundesliga rising star in his first (and only) professional season for Mainz 05. After just 30 Bundesliga matches, four goals and three assists, the Premier League club made Gruda the Rheinhessen side’s record signing shortly after Hürzeler’s arrival. 

The Seagulls shelled out €31.5 million at the time, even outbidding FC Bayern, who were also interested in Gruda. The player himself recently confirmed this quite bluntly. This investment has not yet really paid off. At Brighton, Gruda constantly fluctuated between the starting line-up and the substitutes’ bench, repeatedly struggling with minor injuries. 

"“We are quite satisfied with his development, but he is not yet where we want him to be,” Hürzeler remarked as recently as December last year. A few weeks later, the Premier League chapter came to a close, at least for the time being, for Gruda. He moved on loan to RB Leipzig, where he has since recorded almost as many goal contributions (5) in just eight games as he did in 20 games for Brighton this season (6).

The kicker recently reported that the Saxons will seek talks with the Premier League club to negotiate a permanent deal. There is no buy-option. Brighton therefore stands to make a transfer profit on Gruda too, even though he has not often shone, at least in England to date.

In that respect, Gruda’s cautionary tale for El Mala may even serve as further confirmation of his career plan. After all, there are demonstrably many paths to success leading from Brighton. Anyone on their radar could be worth many times more in just a few years. Thanks to that secret ingredient.