In this article, we'll explain this sometimes misunderstood concept known in US sports betting as a value bet or plus money play, how it works, and provide practical tips for placing this type of bet. Read on and learn.
What Is a Value Bet?
A value bet is a wager where the actual probability of an event happening is higher than the one implied by the odds offered by the sportsbook.
In other words, it's a bet where the bettor believes (often thanks to in-depth knowledge of a sport or competition) that the odds posted by sportsbooks undervalue the real likelihood of the event. It is usually based on two things:
- Actual probability: Your personal estimate of the probability of an event occurring.
- Sportsbook odds: The implied probability of an event according to the betting site.
How Does a Value Bet Work?
To understand how a value bet works, you need to learn how to calculate the value of a wager, and here's how to do it:
Estimate the real probability: Analyze stats, team performance, and other factors (e.g., is the team playing at home? What's the weather forecast?) to judge the actual likelihood of an event happening.
Calculate the value of the bet: Use this formula to determine if a bet qualifies as an overlay:
Value = (Actual Probability × Sportsbook Odds) − 1
If the result is greater than 0, the bet is considered a plus money play.
NFL Value Bet Example
Let’s say there’s a football match between the Kansas City Chiefs and the New England Patriots and based on your knowledge, you believe the Pats has a 60% chance of winning. You’re well-informed, regularly follow their games, and know they’re in good form and have strong chances due to the stakes of the match.
The betting site you're using offers odds of +120 for a the Patriots on the moneyline. Here is a breakdown of this value bet:
- Believed probability: 60% (or 0.60)
- Bookmaker odds: +120
- Value Calculation: Value = (0.60 × 2.20) − 1 = 0.32
Since the value is greater than 0, this is a value bet.
| Moneyline | Estimated Probability | Bookmaker Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots | 60% | -150 | 0.32 |
Our Tips for Placing a Value Bet
Placing an overlay requires careful analysis and a deep understanding of the sporting events you're betting on. For starters, it's best to avoid this strategy in competitions you're unfamiliar with.
Here are some tips and tricks to help you succeed:
- Do your research: Take time to analyze stats, past performances, and current team conditions.
- Compare odds: Check multiple sportsbooks to find the best available odds. Odds may vary between sportsbooks, and while the differences are often small, some are more competitive than others.
- Be disciplined: Only place a bet when you clearly identify a plus money play or overlay.
- Keep a betting log: Track your bets to review your performance and adjust your strategy as needed.
By following these tips and using the right tools, you can improve your chances of success in sports betting by identifying value bets.
- Note: To better understand how this bet works, we recommend checking the betting glossary.