Since their 3-2 loss to the Spaniards at Wembley, England has won four in a row, recording shutouts in three of those games.
Best Predictions for Spain vs England
- England +1 (1st Half handicap 3-way) @ -143 with BetMGM
- England (Tie No Bet) @ +280 with BetMGM
- Over 3.5 goals @ +120 with BetMGM
All odds are courtesy of US Sportsbooks, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
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Three Lions have made a habit of fast starts
England has started strongly in the 2026-27 Nations League. Morgan Rogers struck inside 25 minutes on Thursday night to ensure a 1-0 lead at the half against Croatia on Thursday. They were 2-0 up at halftime against Czechia last month. They were 4-0 up in Rijeka when they thrashed Croatia 7-0.
Spain will obviously be a tougher challenge. The Three Lions led Spain 2-1 at the half at Wembley in September. This bet lands even if England is tied at the half.
Spain can once again call upon their key man in Lamine Yamal. The market gives an implied probability of around 59% for England to avoid losing at halftime. We believe it should be higher, making it our top value play from our Spain vs England predictions.
- Spain vs England Bet 1: England +1 (1st Half handicap 3-way) @ -143 with BetMGM
La Roja have little to play for in Madrid
Both teams have already qualified for the last eight of the 2026-27 Nations League. Sunday’s battle becomes all about England’s case for revenge. Thomas Tuchel’s side will be keen to avenge their 3-2 loss at Wembley.
The top spot is still the ultimate prize here. Winning the group does theoretically secure an easier quarterfinal matchup. Thomas Tuchel will be quietly confident of achieving a result. England’s xG (14.5) is superior to Spain’s 11.6. The loss of Rodri, Dani Olmo and Eric Garcia will affect La Roja’s spine.
With this bet, our stake is returned if the game ends tied. However, the likelihood of an England win should be far greater than the implied probability of 26% set out by the sportsbooks.
- Spain vs England Bet 2: England (Tie No Bet) @ +280 with BetMGM
Recent meetings have been packed with goals
Three of the last five head-to-head meetings between these nations have yielded four or more goals. With Rodri and Eric Garcia missing, the Spanish spine will undoubtedly be affected. This should lead to more goalscoring opportunities for the Three Lions.
England’s defense is far from assured. Marc Guehi will miss a second consecutive game running, while Ezri Konsa is doubtful. Dan Burn had a solid game against Croatia in their absence on Thursday, but the visitors made chances.
With both sides already guaranteed a place in the last eight, we expect a really entertaining clash here. Backing over 3.5 goals at around 45% implied probability makes sense here. It’s a value position too, since three of their last five games have cleared this line.
- Spain vs England Bet 3: Over 3.5 goals @ +120 with BetMGM
Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction: Spain 2-2 England
- Goalscorers prediction: Spain: Yamal, Oyarzabal - England: Kane, Bellingham
Spain host England at the Metropolitano on Sunday night, with top spot in Group A3 of the 2026-27 Nations League firmly at stake.
Although both teams have already qualified for the last eight, finishing top should ensure an easier quarterfinal matchup. Spain just need to avoid defeat to England on Sunday to secure top spot.
Luis de la Fuente’s men strolled to a 2-0 win over Czechia in Prague on Thursday. Goals from Alex Baena and Marc Pubill were enough to seal a routine win. De la Fuente will also welcome Lamine Yamal back into the roster after a slight knee problem.
However, Rodri, Dani Olmo and Eric Garcia are all still absent. Mikel Oyarzabal was a late absentee from Spain’s roster on Thursday. He’s expected to recover from illness to be fit for Sunday night.
England also landed another win on Thursday, overcoming a stubborn Croatia in a 2-1 victory at Wembley.
Captain Harry Kane scored the winning goal from the penalty spot on his record 126th appearance. Marc Guehi is still sidelined with a hip injury, while Ezri Konsa could return after a knee issue.
Probable lineups for Spain vs England
Spain expected lineup: Simon, Pubill, Huijsen, Cubarsi, Cucurella, Zubimendi, Pedri, Yamal, Baena, Nico Williams, Oyarzabal
England expected lineup: Pickford, Alexander-Arnold, Quansah, Burn, Hall, Rice, Anderson, Rogers, Bellingham, Gordon, Kane