After their stunning win over France on Thursday, a point would be enough to ensure Italy’s place in the Nations League knockouts.
Best Predictions for Belgium vs Italy
- Italy (1st goal) @ +120 with BetMGM
- Under 2.5 goals @ +115 with BetMGM
- Moneyline - Tie @ +260 with BetMGM
All odds are courtesy of US Sportsbooks, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
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Azzurri to make an early start
Italy have scored first in six of their last ten competitive games. They have also scored first in seven of their last eight head-to-head meetings with Belgium. Despite this, the odds have this happening on Sunday at an odds-against price.
That’s surprising considering Italy’s front line. Pio Esposito now has four goals in this year’s Nations League campaign. Italy’s attack is the third-most prolific in League A. They have 9.9 xG, surpassed only by England (14.5) and Spain (11.6).
In addition, Italy have created 19 big chances so far in the group stage to Belgium’s 12. Although Belgium needs to win here to stand a chance of qualification, Italy still has the edge in the final third.
- Belgium vs Italy Bet 1: Italy (1st goal) @ +120 with BetMGM
Visitors only need a point in Brussels
Seven of Italy’s last 11 games have ended with two or fewer goals. Although three of their last four games have featured at least four goals, the dynamics change considerably on Sunday.
Italy doesn’t need to win this game. Their heroics against France on Thursday mean a point will be enough to advance to the knockouts.
Even if the Azzurri get in front early, they will sit on their narrow lead and frustrate the hosts. Belgium only managed six shots on target to Turkiye’s seven on Thursday. This suggests they are far from lethal in the final third right now. We’re content with backing under 2.5 goals here at an odds-against price.
- Belgium vs Italy Bet 2: Under 2.5 goals @ +115 with BetMGM
A point suits Mancini’s men fine
Italy visits Brussels needing only a tie. Second place and a quarterfinal tie would be secured. A single point separates the top three in Group A1. Belgium beat Turkiye 2-1 from behind in Izmir on Thursday.
Italy held France to a 1-1 tie in Paris last month. There is no reason why the Azzurri can’t take a share of the spoils in Brussels too.
On the flip side, Belgium hasn’t tied any of its five group games. It must win here and has no use for a point. In our view, the tie comes into play as a bet for a couple of reasons. Firstly, van Bommel is without Courtois and Koni De Winter. Secondly, we still believe Italy will score first. If they do, Belgium’s task becomes more difficult.
Italy will sit back and be happy to play on transitions. This could bring the tie into the equation if the hosts eventually level, forcing the Azzurri to sit deeper and hold on to their precious point. Backing the tie at this price makes sense, and it could be the value play from our Belgium vs Italy predictions.
- Belgium vs Italy Bet 3: Moneyline - Tie @ +260 with BetMGM
Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction: Belgium 1-1 Italy
- Goalscorers prediction: Belgium: Lukaku - Italy: P. Esposito
Belgium host Italy in Brussels on Sunday for the final group game of the 2026-27 Nations League Group A1.
Belgium came from behind to win in Turkiye after Arda Guler had broken the deadlock. Mark van Bommel’s men must win this game to reach the knockouts and avoid the relegation playoffs.
Italy and France sit on ten points apiece, while Belgium is one point behind. Van Bommel will have been pleased by his side’s reaction to falling behind in Izmir. Kevin De Bruyne and Charles De Ketelaere scored within four minutes of each other to turn the game around.
Romeo Lavia returns from suspension for Sunday’s game, but keeper Thibaut Courtois remains absent. Romelu Lukaku will be assessed but should make it.
Roberto Mancini’s Italy will be brimming with confidence after their 3-1 win over France on Thursday night. Pio Esposito netted a brace, and Davide Frattesi added a third to send the San Siro into raptures.
The victory puts the Azzurri firmly in charge of their own destiny going into Sunday’s game in Brussels. They know a point will be good enough to keep Belgium at bay and secure at least second place.
Probable lineups for Belgium vs Italy
Belgium expected lineup: Lammens, Castagne, Ngoy, Mechele, De Cuyper, Lavia, Tielemans, Lukebakio, De Bruyne, Doku, De Ketelaere
Italy expected lineup: Donnarumma, Kayode, Scalvini, Bastoni, Calafiori, Frattesi, Tonali, Barella, S. Esposito, P. Esposito, Cambiaghi