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Miami vs Ohio State Predictions
Liam Isola

Miami vs Ohio State Predictions, Cotton Bowl Picks, Spread, Odds: CFP Quarterfinal

Our CFB expert offers his Miami vs Ohio State predictions, picks, and odds for a Cotton Bowl, CFP quarterfinal matchup at 7:30pm EST (12/31).

Two of the nation’s best defenses clash in the College Football Playoff Quarterfinal as Miami and Ohio State (-9.5) meet in the Cotton Bowl. Ohio State hasn’t allowed any of its opponents to score more than 16 points this season, and under 37.5 points (+144) seems like a possibility.

Miami vs Ohio State Predictions - 7:30pm EST - 12/31

  • Mark Fletcher Jr. Under 55.5 Rushing Yards @ -114
  • Under 37.5 Points @ +144
  • Miami +9.5 @ -110

All odds are courtesy of Sportsbooks, correct at the time of publishing, and subject to change. 

Miami vs Ohio State Odds

  • Spread: Ohio State -9.5 (-110)
  • Moneyline: Miami (+280), Ohio State (-350)
  • Total: 41.5 (O -105, U -115)

Miami vs Ohio State Picks

Buckeyes to Frustrate Fletcher Jr. - Mark Fletcher Jr. Under 55.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

In the Big Ten Championship game, Ohio State’s defense held up well against Indiana. While the Buckeyes lost the game, they only gave up 13 points and held one of the nation’s best rush offenses to just 118 yards on 34 carries.

The Buckeyes rank third in the FBS, as they have held their opponents to just 2.8 yards per rushing attempt this season. Miami isn’t nearly as potent as Indiana on the ground, but Hurricanes RB Mark Fletcher Jr. had a big game in the CFP First Round victory over Texas A&M.

Fletcher Jr. picked up a career-high 172 rushing yards on 17 carries. However, he should come back down to earth here against a dominant Buckeyes defensive line. Fletcher Jr. has only managed more than 40 rushing yards in three of his previous seven games.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Fletcher Jr. gained under 55.5 rushing yards (-114) tonight.

  • Miami vs Ohio State Prediction 1: Mark Fletcher Jr. Under 55.5 Rushing Yards @ -114

Defensive Battle in Arlington - Under 37.5 Points (+144)

In 12 games against FBS opposition this season, Ohio State has held its opponents to 8.8 points per game. While the Buckeyes are the only team allowing under 10 points per game, Miami isn’t far off. The Canes were dominant defensively in the first round of the College Football Playoff.

Miami grinded out a 10-3 victory over Texas A&M by winning the turnover battle and limiting big plays. The Hurricanes have allowed just 13.8 points per game to FBS teams, and that has improved to 8.8 opponent PPG in the preceding five games.

This matchup is not too dissimilar to the Indiana game for Ohio State. If anything, Indiana is much better offensively than Miami. Ohio State is going to get a lot of stops on defense, and its offense may struggle a fair bit.

In their other four games against other teams that rank in the top 20 of opponent points per play this season, Ohio State has scored just 18.8 PPG and allowed under nine PPG. Take a look at the alternate totals for this one and bet on under 37.5 points.

  • Miami vs Ohio State Prediction 2: Under 37.5 Points @ +144

Canes to Keep Things Close - Miami +9.5 (-110)

To be clear, I don’t think Miami will win this game. However, that shouldn’t preclude the Hurricanes from covering the spread. After all, the Canes are fourth in the nation in opponent points per play, just behind Indiana.

Miami’s two losses this season have also come by a combined nine points. Miami, led by veteran QB Carson Beck, will put up a fight until the bitter end, even if it eventually comes up short.

In their only two games as an underdog this season, the Hurricanes managed to upset Notre Dame and Texas A&M. Miami showed it belongs in the College Football Playoff in the First Round and will be competitive again tonight.

Take the points on Miami.

  • Miami vs Ohio State Prediction 3: Miami +9.5 @ -110

Miami vs Ohio State Start Time

  • Start Time: 7:30pm EST
  • Location: AT&T Stadium
  • Address: 1 AT&T Way, Arlington, TX 76011
  • TV & Streaming: ESPN, Fubo, Sling TV

The last time Ohio State lost, the Buckeyes won four games in a row en route to the National Championship. Ryan Day’s Ohio State should be motivated after losing to Indiana in the Big Ten Championship Game, but a battle-tested Miami stands in its way on New Year’s Eve.