Paraguay lost narrowly to the USA on Saturday, while Mexico extended their winless run since winning the Gold Cup to five matches.
Best Predictions for Mexico vs Paraguay
- Mexico - Moneyline @ +125 with bet365
- Mexico to win 1st half @ +190 with bet365
- Under 1.5 goals @ +190 with bet365
All odds are courtesy of bet365, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
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Mexico to take early lead
Although the Mexicans are winless in their last five games, they’ve shown signs of improvement in recent games. They enjoyed the lion’s share of attacking momentum in their goalless draw with Uruguay. Aguirre’s side registered ten shots to the Uruguayans’ paltry three.
Mexico were in a similar situation in their 1-1 draw with Ecuador last month. They dominated most of the first half and ended the second half strongly. They also created three crucial chances compared to Ecuador’s two.
Meanwhile, Paraguay have struggled in the final third lately. The USA successfully prevented them from scoring or dominating for most of Saturday’s game before ultimately winning. It was a similar story in their 2-0 defeat to South Korea. They had their backs to the wall in the first period but finished strongly in the final 20 minutes.
With that in mind, the Mexicans will likely start well, take an early lead, and control the rest of the game.
- Mexico vs Paraguay Prediction 1: Mexico - Moneyline @ +125 with bet365
Following head-to-head history
Mexico have led at halftime in six of their last seven meetings with Paraguay. With that in mind, it is surprising that the betting markets indicate such a low probability of Mexico leading at the interval on Wednesday.
They suggest that Aguirre’s men have led at the break only 34.48% of the time in their matches against Paraguay. With Raul Jimenez eager to score more goals to chase Chicharito Hernandez’s all-time scoring record, he’ll go all out to find the net.
Paraguay scored only 14 goals in 18 World Cup qualifying games, an average of less than a goal per game.
- Mexico vs Paraguay Prediction 2: Mexico to win 1st Half @ +190 with bet365
One goal to decide the contest either way
Three of the last five international friendlies between Mexico and Paraguay in Mexico have featured just one goal scored. In fact, their last meeting in September 2022 ended in a 1-0 win for the Paraguayans.
In their World Cup qualifying campaign, Paraguay’s defence was once of the most impregnable of all South American nations. They conceded just ten goals in 18 matches, a record surpassed only by Ecuador.
Meanwhile, Javier Aguirre’s Mexico played out a goalless draw with Uruguay at the weekend. Recent results include a 1-1 draw with Ecuador and another goalless draw against the Japanese. All signs point towards a low-scoring affair in San Antonio. The betting markets suggest there’s only a 34.48% chance for this match to see only one goal or fewer.
That’s undervaluing the likelihood, which is why it is the value play from this trio of Mexico vs Paraguay predictions.
- Mexico vs Paraguay Prediction 3: Under 1.5 goals @ +190 with bet365
Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction – Mexico 1-0 Paraguay
- Goalscorers prediction – Mexico: Jimenez – Paraguay: N/A
Mexico and Paraguay conclude November’s international week with a friendly in San Antonio on Tuesday morning.
The Mexicans are still preparing to co-host next summer’s World Cup finals. It promises to be a fantastic spectacle, but Javier Aguirre’s men have appeared somewhat unprepared in recent matches.
Since winning the Gold Cup in a dramatic final with the USA in July, Mexico have failed to win five matches. These five friendlies have come against solid nations that they’ll potentially face next summer, including Japan, South Korea, Ecuador, and Colombia.
Paraguay finished sixth in their World Cup qualifying campaign to secure the final direct qualification spot for next summer’s finals from South America. They’ve drawn one and lost two friendlies since.
Before losing narrowly to the USA on Saturday, Paraguay drew with Japan and lost to South Korea when they travelled to Asia. Los Guaranies are currently 39th in the world rankings, 25 places below Mexico, who are in 14th.
Probable lineups for Mexico vs Paraguay
Mexico expected lineup: Malagon; Gallardo, Reyes, Montes, Vasquez, Sanchez, Mora, Alvarez, Lozano, Pineda, Jimenez
Paraguay expected lineup: Gill; Caceres, Gomez, Riveros, Alonso, Gomez, Bobadilla, Gonzalez, Almiron, Enciso, Arce