Since winning the Gold Cup in July, Mexico have struggled to find their best form. Wednesday’s opponents, Ecuador, are also in excellent shape.
Best Predictions for Mexico vs Ecuador
- Ecuador (Draw No Bet) @ -122 with BetMGM
- Under 1.5 goals @ +210 with BetMGM
- 1st Half - Tie @ +115 with BetMGM
All odds are courtesy of BetMGM, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
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La Tricolor to beat struggling Mexico
Ecuador enjoyed one of the most impressive 2026 World Cup qualifying campaigns worldwide. La Tricolor won eight, drew eight and lost only two qualifying games. Across their 18 games, the Ecuadorian defence shipped just five goals at an average of 0.28 goals conceded per game.
Conceding just five goals in a campaign where the Ecuadorians faced the likes of Argentina, Brazil and Colombia twice apiece is no mean feat. From a motivational standpoint, Ecuador need the victory to sustain their position in Pot 2 for the 2026 World Cup group stage draw.
This, combined with Mexico’s drop-off in form, suggests Ecuador are big favourites to win here. Mexico’s heavy 4-0 loss at home to Colombia – who finished just below Ecuador in their qualifying table – is a useful benchmark.
- Mexico vs Ecuador Prediction 1: Ecuador (Draw No Bet) @ -122 with BetMGM
Low-scoring affair anticipated
With only 19 goals across Ecuador’s 18 World Cup qualifying games, low-scoring games are the norm for Ecuador. They’ve also posted back-to-back goalless draws against Mexico in 2024 and 2022 respectively.
With that in mind, it’s surprising to find the Under 1.5 Goals odds priced as high as it is. The betting markets currently suggest there is only a 30.77% chance for one or fewer goals to be scored on Wednesday.
Based on the above data, this is our number-one value bet from our trio of Mexico vs Ecuador predictions.
- Mexico vs Ecuador Prediction 2: Under 1.5 goals @ +210 with BetMGM
Cagey opening 45 minutes likely
After Mexico’s heavy 4-0 loss to Colombia, Aguirre will be keen to tighten his side defensively against Ecuador. This game is a useful benchmark for the Mexicans against one of the best South American nations, just eight months away from the World Cup.
Given Ecuador’s preference for low-scoring games and Mexico’s desire to improve on their Colombia loss, a half-time stalemate appears likely.
We foresee Ecuador being happy to keep the hosts at arm’s length in the opening 45 minutes before trying to clinch the win in the second period.
- Mexico vs Ecuador Prediction 3: 1st Half - Tie @ +115 with BetMGM
Our analysis: Form of both teams
Mexico prepare to host Ecuador for an international friendly in Guadalajara that has more significance than it might initially appear.
Javier Aguirre’s men have enjoyed a landmark 2025 to date. They won their 13th Gold Cup trophy and their seventh since the turn of the new millennium. However, following that triumph in July, the team appear to have hit a lull.
Mexico were held to frustrating friendly draws with Japan and South Korea, before their 4-0 thrashing at home to Colombia on Sunday. Despite enjoying 59% of possession, they could only muster two attempts on target.
Aguirre’s men are in a difficult position, as there is little at stake in their current fixtures. As they co-host next summer’s World Cup finals, qualification is already secured.
The same couldn’t be said for Ecuador, who had to work incredibly hard to clinch second place in their 2026 World Cup qualifying campaign. Sebastian Beccacece’s side lost just two of their 18 qualifying games to finish on 29 points, one clear of Mexico’s Sunday opponents, Colombia.
Not only are Ecuador unbeaten in their last three meetings with Mexico, but they also have more motivation to win. World ranking points could be the difference between Ecuador being drawn in Pot 2 and Pot 3 for the group stages of next summer’s finals.
If Ecuador can inch into the top 24, they could avoid being drawn against some of the bigger nations in the group stage. They currently sit 24th, just five ranking points better off than 25th-ranked Australia.
Probable lineups for Mexico vs Ecuador
Mexico expected lineup: Malagon, Sanchez, Gallardo, Reyes, Montes, Ruiz, Romo, Huerta, Pineda, Vega, Gimenez
Ecuador expected lineup: Galindez, Estupinan, Ordonez, Pacho, Franco, Vite, Castillo, Minda, Yeboah, Paez, Valencia