With Italy well off the pace of Group I leaders, Norway, the Azzurri desperately need all three points from their clash with Israel on Monday night.
Best bets for Israel vs Italy
- Italy -1 (Handicap 3-way) @ +110 with BetMGM
- Both teams to score - Yes @ +100 with BetMGM
- Over 3.5 goals @ +185 with BetMGM
All odds are courtesy of BetMGM, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
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Gattuso’s men to benefit from neutral location
It’s not always easy for teams playing ‘home’ games in neutral stadiums. The Israelis have been playing their home fixtures in Hungary in recent months, so it’s hard to expect a lively atmosphere awaiting the Italians in Debrecen.
Italy may have just as many fans supporting them in Hungary as Israel. Given that the Italians won by three clear goals in their last meeting in October, it’s surprising the betting markets give the Azzurri only a 48.78% chance of winning by a two-goal margin on Monday.
With Gattuso mixing up his squad and keen to give new players a chance, his team will be eager to impress. They will be desperate to make an immediate impression during this World Cup qualifying double-header.
- Israel vs Italy Bet 1: Italy -1 (Handicap 3-way) @ +110 with BetMGM
Israelis to get on the scoresheet too
Israel managed to find the back of the net in both of their Nations League group games last year. That’s why it’s surprising that the betting markets give only about a 50% chance of both teams scoring on Monday night.
Gattuso is said to be reverting to a four-man defence. This ends the Azzurri’s three-man defensive line that was cruelly exposed by the Norwegians earlier this year.
However, with a new-look team in development, there will always be bumps in the road. That’s why we’re happy to back both teams to score on Monday, even though the visitors are expected to run out comfortable winners in the end.
- Israel vs Italy Bet 2: Both teams to score - Yes @ +100 with BetMGM
Value on goals due to Gattuso’s attack-minded approach
Italy’s new head coach, Gennaro Gattuso, is known for being an attack-minded manager. His philosophy encourages the team to press hard from the front, with their forwards leading the press. They also make strong use of the wings, creating overloads with the full-backs.
Israel have conceded two goals per game on average, while scoring over two themselves. In their last meeting in October 2024, Italy romped to a 4-1 win at home, following a 2-1 win against Israel in Hungary in September.
With an average of four goals scored per game in those Nations League contests, coupled with Gattuso’s desire to stamp his mark on the squad, we envisage Italy pushing for goals in Debrecen.
The betting markets believe there is only a 34.84% chance of four or more goals being scored. Based on recent head-to-head results, the probability should be closer to 40% and beyond. This makes it the value pick of our trio of Israel vs Italy predictions this week.
- Israel vs Italy Bet 3: Over 3.5 goals @ +185 with BetMGM
Our analysis: Form of both teams
It’s been an encouraging start to the 2026 World Cup qualifying campaign for Israel, who play their home game with Italy on neutral soil in Hungary on Monday night.
The Israelis have six points from their first three games, having beaten the Estonians in March and June, with a 4-2 loss to group leaders Norway in between. After playing Moldova on Friday evening, Israel will host Italy in the Hungarian city of Debrecen on Monday.
Israel have lost their last four competitive meetings with the Italians, including two meetings in the 2024 Nations League. Israel are likely to start with Dor Turgeman and Manor Solomon in attack, with Liel Abada not named in the squad for this week’s double-header of fixtures.
Under new boss Gennaro Gattuso, Italy will be desperate to avoid missing out on a third straight major tournament next summer. Their Group I campaign has been challenging so far, highlighted by a 3-0 defeat to Norway in June.
Italy have to win their next five qualifying games to give themselves a chance of reeling in the Norwegians for their final group game in November. Gattuso has rung the changes in his new squad, with Udogie, Ricci and Lucca all overlooked. They are being replaced by Liverpool’s Giovanni Leoni, along with Giovanni Fabbian and Francesco Pio Esposito.
Probable lineups for Israel vs Italy
Israel Expected Lineup: Da. Peretz; Revivo, Dasa, Shlomo, Nachmias, Do. Peretz, E. Peretz, Gloukh, Biton, Solomon, Turgeman
Italy Expected Lineup: Donnarumma; Dimarco, Di Lorenzo, Bastoni, Gatti, Barella, Tonali, Locatelli, Politano, Kean, Zaccagni