The winner takes all in the third and final game of Round 1 in the MLS Playoffs. Can Nashville keep Messi at bay for a second time?
Best predictions for Inter Miami vs Nashville
- Inter Miami -1 @ +120 with bet365
- Over 3.5 Goals @ -120 with bet365
- Lionel Messi to Assist @ +120 with bet365
All odds are courtesy of bet365, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
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Two-goal margin victory expected
Given Nashville’s dreadful away record, it’s hard to bet against Lionel Messi and Inter Miami this weekend. Javier Mascherano’s side should bounce back from defeat in Nashville to wrap up this series and advance to the Conference Semifinals.
Herons have won four of their last six home games by at least a two-goal margin. On top of that, they’ve won their last three home games by three and four-goal margins.
Inter Miami will force Nashville out of their defensive shape if they score an early goal, leaving spaces for Messi and co. to further exploit. Backing the Herons to win by two or more goals at an odds-against price seems like a sensible play.
- Inter Miami vs Nashville Bet 1: Inter Miami -1 @ +120 with bet365
Value on four or more goals being scored
Both teams have scored in each of the last eight meetings between Inter Miami and Nashville. In addition, the last eight games have featured at least three goals. That’s why there is value in backing Saturday’s game to feature four or more goals at a probability of 54.64%.
The Herons have scored four goals alone in two of their last three home games against Atlanta and New England. They’ve also scored three goals in four of their last six home fixtures, including the first of their best-of-three series with Nashville.
Since this game is effectively a knockout game, it will likely feature more continuous action at both ends of the pitch compared to the second match.
- Inter Miami vs Nashville Bet 2: Over 3.5 Goals @ -120 with bet365
Messi to tee up a Heron teammate
Lionel Messi has racked up 21 assists in his 30 appearances for Inter Miami in the MLS. While the betting markets have decreased the Argentine’s scoring odds, there’s still value on him to assist a teammate.
He has an assist strike rate of 70% this season, but he is worth backing to assist at a probability of just 45.45% here. This is comfortably the value bet from this trio of Inter Miami vs Nashville predictions.
Although Messi is likely to get on the scoresheet himself, he is likely to have plenty of possession too. The former Barcelona icon is given the creative licence to roam and create by Heron boss Javier Mascherano.
- Inter Miami vs Nashville Bet 3: Lionel Messi to Assist @ +120 with bet365
Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction – Inter Miami 3-1 Nashville
- Goalscorers prediction – Inter Miami: Messi, Allende, Alba – Nashville: Surridge
Inter Miami and Nashville face off for the third time to conclude their best-of-three series in the first round of the MLS Playoffs on Saturday.
Inter Miami secured a 3-1 win in the first game before losing 2-1 in the second fixture, setting up a winner-takes-all clash this weekend. The Herons finished third in the Eastern Conference, three places and 11 points higher than Nashville.
Inter Miami are comfortably the top scorers in the MLS, having scored 81 goals in their 34 matches. However, their total of 55 conceded goals is worse than Toronto FC, who finished 12th in the Eastern Conference. Lionel Messi was kept at bay in the second game in Nashville. However, he has rarely been quiet in two games in a row, with 53 goal contributions in 30 appearances.
Nashville will travel to Miami for the decider with some injury issues to contend with. Jonny Perez and Julian Gaines are sidelined, while Josh Bauer seems set to deputise for Daniel Lovitz, as he will be out due to an ankle injury.
The visitors' away form has been uninspiring. They’ve won only one of their previous nine away fixtures, losing seven of them, which doesn’t inspire confidence for their match on Saturday.
Probable lineups for Inter Miami vs Nashville
Inter Miami expected lineup: Rios; Alba, Fray, Allen, Maxi Falcon, De Paul, Allende, Busquets, Silvetti, Rodriguez, Messi
Nashville expected lineup: Willis; Bauer, Najar, Zimmerman, Palacios, Corcoran, Yazbek, Tagseth, Muyl, Mukhtar, Surridge