FC Cincinnati and Inter Miami finished tied on points after 34 regular-season games. Will Lionel Messi prove to be the difference maker on Sunday?
FC Cincinnati vs Inter Miami Predictions - 5 pm ET 11/23
- FC Cincinnati to Win @ +200 with bet365
- Kevin Denkey Anytime Goalscorer @ +175with bet365
- Over 3.5 Goals @ +110with bet365
All odds are courtesy of bet365, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
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Best Predictions for Cincinnati vs Inter Miami
Backing the Orange and Blue to advance
Although there is little difference in quality between the two teams, FC Cincinnati have had the upper hand in home games against the Herons. They’ve won their last four MLS home games against Inter Miami. In fact, the Herons have only scored two goals in those four matches, compared to Cincinnati’s 13.
Their 3-0 victory over Inter Miami in July is a useful benchmark, especially since the Herons had Messi and Suarez in their starting lineup. However, FC Cincinnati still managed to find a way to control the South American legends and expose the Herons’ defensive frailties.
They may achieve this again on the biggest stage. They are regarded as the underdogs in the betting markets. Backing the Orange and Blue to win at a probability of just 35.71% seems like a pure value play.
- Cincinnati vs Inter Miami Predictions 1: FC Cincinnati to Win @ +200 with bet365
Denkey to find the net
Kevin Denkey has been a positive addition for Cincinnati since joining from Belgian football. The Togolese striker has scored 16 goals in 32 appearances so far this season.
Despite his 50% scoring strike rate during the regular season, the betting markets indicate that he has only a 36.36% chance of scoring against Inter Miami.
Given that Denkey is likely to be the Orange and Blue’s main attacking threat, he’s a prime contender to find the net. Therefore, backing him to score anytime is the best bet from this trio of FC Cincinnati vs Inter Miami predictions.
- Cincinnati vs Inter Miami Predictions 2: Kevin Denkey Anytime Goalscorer @ +175with bet365
Goalfest expected
Regardless of the final result on Sunday night, it is difficult to imagine a boring match in Ohio. Inter Miami have averaged 2.38 goals scored per game and 1.62 goals conceded per game.
Meanwhile, FC Cincinnati have scored 1.53 goals per game and conceded 1.18 goals per game.
Three of the last nine league meetings between these teams have featured five or more goals. Four or more goals can be backed at a probability of 47.61% in this knockout contest.
- Cincinnati vs Inter Miami Predictions 3: Over 3.5 Goals @ +110with bet365
Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction – Cincinnati 3-1 Inter Miami
- Goalscorers prediction – Cincinnati: Denkey x2, Evander – Inter Miami: Messi
Cincinnati and Inter Miami will meet at the TQL Stadium in a one-off Conference Semi-Final, with the winner advancing to the Conference Final.
Cincinnati finished second in the final MLS regular season standings, despite having the same number of points as Inter Miami. Although their goal difference was worse than the Herons, Cincinnati secured one more victory than Inter Miami across the campaign.
Cincinnati bounced back well from losing the second of their best-of-three-game series with Columbus. Having suffered a disappointing 4-0 loss in Columbus, they emerged victorious 2-1 on home soil. They are a tough proposition in front of their own fans, as they’ve won four of their last five home games in the closing stages of the season.
Inter Miami also recorded 65 points from 34 games, like Cincinnati, but only won 19 of those matches. The Herons have star players available, including Lionel Messi, Sergio Busquets, and Luis Suarez. However, they’ve shown signs of defensive weakness away from Miami this season.
They’ve conceded 1.71 goals per game, and have an average of 1.71 points per away game compared to 2.12 points per home game.
Probable lineups for FC Cincinnati vs Inter Miami
- Cincinnati expected lineup: Celentano, Hadebe, Hagglund, Robinson, Engel, Kubo, Bucha, Gidi, Brenner, Evander, Denkey
- Inter Miami expected lineup: Rios Novo, Fray, Alba, Allen, Falcon, Allende, de Paul, Busquets, Rodriguez, Messi, Suarez