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Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots Predictions
Liam Isola

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots Predictions, Picks & Odds - NFL Dec 14th

Our NFL expert offers his Bills vs Patriots predictions, picks, and odds as the Pats can clinch the AFC East with a win at 1:00pm ET (12/14).

While the Buffalo Bills may be 1.5-point favorites for today’s game at the New England Patriots, the hosts are on a 10-game winning streak. With cold weather expected and a decent chance of snow during the game, under 49.5 points (-110) is one of the most intriguing picks.

Bills vs Patriots Predictions - 1:00pm ET - 12/14

  • James Cook Over 80.5 Rushing Yards @ -114
  • Under 49.5 Points @ -110
  • Patriots -2.5 @ +124

All odds are courtesy of US Sportsbooks, correct at the time of publishing, and subject to change.

Bills vs Patriots Odds

  • Spread: Bills -1.5 (-105)
  • Moneyline: Bills (-118), Patriots (+100)
  • Total: O/U 49.5 (-110)

Bills vs Patriots Picks

Cook to Exploit Patriots’ Recent Run Struggles - James Cook Over 80.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

When the New England Patriots beat the Buffalo Bills 23-20 in Week 5, Bills RB James Cook managed just 49 yards on 15 carries. That’s his third-lowest total of the season, as Cook has averaged just over 100 rushing yards per game.

The Bills’ run game, as always, is going to be crucial today. With cracks showing in the Patriots’ run game in recent weeks, Cook, who has two 100-yard rushing games in his last three, could be in line for a big day.

On the season, New England ranks third in the league, conceding just 89.5 opponent rushing yards per game. In their previous three games, the Patriots have allowed 123.7 rushing yards per game, ranking 20th in the NFL during that time.

The 4.8 yards per opponent rushing attempt they’ve allowed over the last three games also ranks 25th in the league. Bet on James Cook over 80.5 rushing yards (-114) today.

  • Bills vs Patriots Prediction 1: James Cook Over 80.5 Rushing Yards @ -114

Under Likely Even Without Wintry Weather - Under 49.5 Points (-110)

Although they have struggled against the run in recent weeks, the Patriots still have one of the best defenses in the league. They allow 18.5 points per game, which drops to 17 points per game at home.

Meanwhile, the Bills’ defense has been much better on the road (17.2 opponent ppg) than at home (27.1). I like the under even without the chance of snow during the game. Both teams likely employ a run-heavy offense in wintry weather conditions.

Buffalo already runs the ball on a higher percentage of its plays than every team except for Seattle. The under is 5-1 in the Bills’ road games this season, and just 43 points were scored when the Patriots beat the Bills 23-20 in Buffalo in Week 5.

Take under 49.5 points (-110) for today’s game.

  • Bills vs Patriots Prediction 2: Under 49.5 Points @ -110

Pats Pushing for AFC East Title - Patriots -2.5 (+124)

The Patriots were eight-point underdogs heading into the 23-20 Week 5 win over the Bills. Now, coming off a bye week, they’re 1.5-point underdogs for a home game against the Bills. When Patriots coach Mike Vrabel has had extra time to prepare, his teams have performed well.

Even that is an understatement, as Vrabel was 6-0 in games immediately following bye weeks as the coach of the Tennessee Titans. On their 10-game winning streak, the Patriots have shown a penchant for winning close games, while the Bills have been wildly inconsistent this season.

While Buffalo has been known for protecting the ball in recent seasons, that hasn’t been the case in 2025. The Bills rank 23rd in the NFL with 1.4 giveaways per game, and the Patriots will punish any mistakes today, as they did in Week 5.

There’s value in betting on the alternate spread and going with the Patriots -2.5 at +124 odds. This is a massive game for the Patriots, who would clinch the AFC East title for the first time since 2019 with a victory.  

  • Bills vs Patriots Prediction 3: Patriots -2.5 @ +124

Bills vs Patriots Start Time

  • Start Time: 1:00pm ET
  • Location: Gillette Stadium
  • Address: 1 Patriot Pl, Foxborough, MA 02035
  • TV & Streaming: CBS, Paramount+, Fubo, Hulu, YouTube TV, NFL+

New England Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel was 6-0 coming off bye weeks as the coach of the Tennessee Titans. His Patriots are on a ten-game winning streak and can clinch the division today if they’re able to sweep the season series against the Buffalo Bills.