Our betting expert expects an even first leg, with the hosts starting well, but the Gunners coming back to level the tie.
Best predictions for Atletico Madrid vs Arsenal
- Tie @ +210 with bet365
- First half - Atletico Madrid to score over 0.5 goals @ +136 with bet365
- Second half - Arsenal to score over 0.5 goals @ -109 with bet365
All odds are courtesy of bet365, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
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First leg to finish all square
Arsenal have prioritised a tight defence in the Champions League knockout stage so far. They drew the first leg of their round-of-16 tie 1-1 away to Bayer Leverkusen.
The Gunners were also goalless for 91 minutes in Lisbon in the last round, until Kai Havertz scored in stoppage time. That was a really even game, with both sides creating two big chances. Sporting shaded the shot count, although Arsenal’s xG tally of 1.33 was superior.
This match is also shaping up to be really competitive. Mikel Arteta would surely be content with a tie to take back to the Emirates. His side haven’t lost any of their 12 Champions League fixtures this term.
Atletico Madrid are a more positive team than they were under Simeone. In fact, 86% of their European fixtures this season have seen both teams score. However, with the stakes high, they won’t take unnecessary risks. Therefore, backing a tie in this match would be the smart move.
- Atletico Madrid vs Arsenal Prediction 1: Tie @ +210 with bet365
Atleti to make the brighter start
There were first-half goals for Atletico Madrid in both legs of their quarter-final against Barcelona. With the crowd sure to be involved, they’ll be targeting a fast start to this semi-final as well.
The last time Los Rojiblancos hosted opposition from North London, they were 4-0 up in just 22 minutes against Tottenham. There is little prospect of this Arsenal defence crumbling in the same fashion. However, the visitors do have fitness issues in the full-back roles.
Arteta’s side are not as convincing defensively as they were earlier this term. They have conceded first-half goals in three of their last six matches.
Atleti have netted 1.29 first-half goals per match in this season’s Champions League. They are at good value to get on the scoresheet before the interval with an implied probability of 44.4%.
- Atletico Madrid vs Arsenal Prediction 2: First half - Atletico Madrid to score over 0.5 goals @ +136 with bet365
Gunners to finish strong in Madrid
Arsenal can take encouragement from Atletico Madrid’s defensive issues. The Spanish side have conceded twice or more in eight of their last nine fixtures in all competitions. They still have injury doubts over defenders David Hancko and Jose Maria Gimenez heading into this match.
Simeone’s men have conceded 16 second-half goals in Europe this term. By contrast, Arsenal have only let in five goals in total. That helps explain why the Premier League outfit are the clear favourites to progress.
After a decisive late strike in their quarter-final first leg, Arsenal are capable of netting after the break again. 63% of their goals in the Champions League this season have come after the interval. Backing the visitors to score over 0.5 second-half goals appeals with an implied probability of 52.6%.
- Atletico Madrid vs Arsenal Prediction 3: Second half - Arsenal to score over 0.5 goals @ -109 with bet365
Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction - Atletico Madrid 1-1 Arsenal
- Goalscorers prediction - Atletico Madrid: Julian Alvarez - Arsenal: Declan Rice
Atletico Madrid reached this point thanks to a 3-2 aggregate victory over Barcelona in the quarter-finals. They did the hard work away, winning 2-0 in the first leg at Camp Nou.
Diego Simeone’s side have struggled in home matches lately. They’ve frequently rested players but ended a four-game losing streak in La Liga with a 3-2 weekend win over Athletic Club. They’ve also suffered a penalty shootout defeat in the Copa del Rey final since their last European match.
Arsenal have also lost their way, with four defeats in their last seven matches across all competitions. They did manage to grind out a 1-0 win over Newcastle in the Premier League on Saturday. In Europe, they edged out Sporting with a 1-0 aggregate victory in the previous round.
Probable lineups for Atletico Madrid vs Arsenal
Atletico Madrid expected lineup: Oblak, Ruggeri, Le Normand, Pubill, Molina, Gonzalez, Koke, Llorente, Simeone, Alvarez, Griezmann
Arsenal expected lineup: Raya, White, Saliba, Gabriel, Hincapie, Rice, Zubimendi, Saka, Odegaard, Martinelli, Gyokeres