Our betting expert expects Arsenal’s home advantage to play a crucial role, but Atletico Madrid to ultimately progress to the Champions League final.
Best predictions for Arsenal vs Atletico Madrid
- Both teams to score & Over 2.5 total goals @ +140 with bet365
- Atletico Madrid to qualify for final @ +230 with bet365
- Ademola Lookman to score or assist anytime @ +250 with bet365
All odds are courtesy of bet365, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
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Entertaining affair at the Emirates
Arsenal and Atletico Madrid displayed resilience in the first leg in Madrid. Neither side emerged victorious, leaving everything to play for here.
Incidentally, the last European knockout meeting between these sides was the 2017/18 Europa League semi‑final. That first leg ended 1-1 in London, before Diego Costa’s solitary strike sent Atleti to the final against Marseille.
Atletico have scored in 10 of their last 11 Champions League away games, and have scored exactly twice in five of their last six trips. Arsenal’s last five UCL fixtures have featured under 2.5 total goals. Only three of their last 13 home games in the competition saw both teams score.
However, the stakes are high this time. Both teams should be able to breach defences in what could be an open contest until the end. At least three goals are likely in an encounter that could stretch 120 minutes.
- Arsenal vs Atletico Madrid Prediction 1: Both teams to score & Over 2.5 total goals @ +140 with bet365
Atletico to clinch late victory
Arsenal beat Spanish side Villarreal to reach the 2006 Champions League final against Barcelona. Ten years later, Atletico progressed past Bayern Munich on away goals in the semi-finals.
The Gunners will be fatigued. Mikel Arteta fielded his strongest eleven against Fulham at the weekend. Arsenal are competing in two competitions, with the Premier League their other priority.
Meanwhile, Diego Simeone has built a resilient side that has endured many heartbreaks over the years. A full week’s rest for his key players means Arsenal’s home advantage could be cancelled out.
The Gunners are unbeaten in nine games against Spanish opposition, and are the only undefeated team in this season’s Champions League. However, this competition is famous for surprising moments.
Expect the Rojiblancos to grind out a late victory, perhaps in extra-time. That said, penalties cannot be ruled out either.
- Arsenal vs Atletico Madrid Prediction 2: Atletico Madrid to qualify for final @ +230 with bet365
Ademola back in form
Ademola Lookman has arguably been one of the best winter signings in recent history. Atletico Madrid brought the Nigerian marksman from Atalanta. He’s had an instant impact.
Since joining, Lookman has seven goals and four assists in 19 competitive appearances. He has recorded two goals in his last three appearances – in the Champions League second leg against Barcelona and the Copa del Rey final against Real Sociedad.
Lookman bounced back from a two-match absence due to muscle discomfort against Arsenal last week. He registered four shots and a match-high eight touches in the opposition box. He also completed 29 of 32 passes – a 91% accuracy rate.
With Alexander Sorloth, Julian Alvarez and Antoine Griezmann in support, Lookman has what it takes to send the three-time runners-up to yet another final appearance.
- Arsenal vs Atletico Madrid Prediction 3: Ademola Lookman to score or assist anytime @ +250 with bet365
Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction: Arsenal 1-2 Atletico Madrid (AET)
- Goalscorers prediction: Arsenal: Martin Zubimendi; Atletico Madrid: Ademola Lookman, Antoine Greizmann
The first leg at the Wanda Metropolitano featured penalties. Viktor Gyokeres gave Arsenal a late first-half lead from the spot, before Julian Alvarez equalised the score 10 minutes into the second period, securing a draw for Atletico.
The stalemate extended Arsenal’s unbeaten Champions League run to 13 games this season. One of their 10 wins in that run came at the Emirates Stadium against a shaky Atleti – a 4-0 league-phase win in October 2025.
The hosts warmed up for their third meeting against Atleti this term with a 3-0 win over Fulham over the weekend.
Arsenal last played a Champions League final exactly 20 years ago. Atleti have waited 10 years since their last final appearance. Both sides are eager to end long droughts.
Diego Simeone rotated his side heavily against Valencia, watching his weakened side win 2-0. The Rojiblancos have been inconsistent, but their resilience is undeniable. Their away record in this competition is a concern – all three away UCL losses came against English opposition.
Arsenal will feel the strain of playing a full-strength outfit against Fulham while chasing the Premier League title. Atletico will be the more rested of the two. They also beat Arsenal in their last European semi-final, the 2017/18 Europa League. Expect the Rojiblancos to secure a spot in Budapest.
Probable lineups for Atletico Madrid vs Arsenal
Arsenal expected lineup: Raya, White, Saliba, Gabriel, Hincapie, Eze, Zubimendi, Rice, Saka, Gyokeres, Trossard
Atletico Madrid expected lineup: Oblak, Molina, Pubill, Le Normand, Ruggeri, Lookman, Koke, Cardoso, Alvarez, Griezmann, Sorloth