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Alabama vs Indiana Predictions rose bowl
Liam Isola

Alabama vs Indiana Predictions, Rose Bowl Picks, Spread, Odds: CFP Quarterfinal

Our CFB expert offers his Alabama vs Indiana predictions, picks, and odds for a CFP Quarterfinal at 4:00pm EST in the Rose Bowl (1/1).

It may seem strange that #1 Indiana (13-0) is a seven-point favorite against #9 Alabama (11-3), the most successful college football program of the modern era. It’s a testament to the incredible season the Hoosiers have had, and Indiana may even cover the spread at the Rose Bowl today.

Alabama vs Indiana Predictions - 4:00pm EST - 1/1

  • Alabama Under 16.5 Points @ +155
  • Ty Simpson Over 33.5 Passing Attempts @ -110
  • Indiana -7 @ -110

All odds are courtesy of Sportsbooks, correct at the time of publishing, and subject to change.

Alabama vs Indiana Odds

  • Spread: Indiana -7 (-110)
  • Moneyline: Alabama (+205), Indiana (-250)
  • Total: O/U 48 (-110)

Alabama vs Indiana Picks

One-Dimensional Bama Offense Could Buckle - Alabama Under 16.5 Points (+155)

Heading into this College Football Playoff Quarterfinal, Indiana has allowed just 20 points combined over its previous three games. The Hoosiers, the only undefeated team in FBS, are peaking at the right time and shut down Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship Game.

Winning their first Big Ten title since 1967, Indiana held Ohio State to just ten points and 2.2 yards per carry. Alabama’s offense is quite one-dimensional, and the Crimson Tide rank in the bottom ten in the nation in yards per carry (3.2).

Alabama’s reliance on the pass will be predictable and play into the Hoosiers’ hands. Georgia held Alabama to seven points in the SEC Championship Game, and Indiana can absolutely shut down QB Ty Simpson and Alabama as well.

The Hoosiers have allowed just 11.8 points per game against FBS opposition this season. Take a chance on Alabama under 16.5 points (+155).

  • Alabama vs Indiana Prediction 1: Alabama Under 16.5 Points @ +155

Ty to Throw Early and Often - Ty Simpson Over 33.5 Passing Attempts (-110)

After Indiana held Ohio State to just 58 rushing yards on 26 attempts, I highly doubt Alabama believes it will find success on the ground today. The Crimson Tide also picked up only 28 yards on 25 attempts in the CFP First Round victory over Oklahoma.

It stands to reason that Alabama will live and die by the pass today, and that means plenty of attempts for quarterback Ty Simpson. Simpson is averaging 32.6 passes per game, and that tends to increase drastically when Alabama is losing.

In the Crimson Tide’s three losses this season, Simpson has thrown no fewer than 39 passes and averaged 41.3 passing attempts. Alabama is a seven-point underdog today and could trail for quite some time.

Expect Simpson to clear 33.5 passing attempts with relative ease.

  • Alabama vs Indiana Prediction 2: Ty Simpson Over 33.5 Passing Attempts @ -110

Hoosiers Burst Bama’s Bubble - Indiana -7 (-110)

Heisman-winning QB Fernando Mendoza and Indiana will show why they are the nation’s #1 team here. The Hoosiers’ offense is quite efficient, as they rank in the top five in points per play and rarely turn the ball over.

Alabama is solid on defense, but they haven’t played a team as well-rounded as Indiana all season, and it should show. The Crimson Tide are just a few weeks removed from a 21-point loss against Georgia and lost to Florida State by 14 early on in the season.

Indiana coach Curt Cignetti, who was an assistant at Alabama, isn’t intimidated by anyone, and he’ll instill confidence in his players ahead of this one. The win over previously unbeaten and defending national champion Ohio State has certainly helped the cause.

This isn’t even close to being one of the best Alabama teams of the last decade, and Cignetti knows it. Go with Indiana -7 (-110) as the Hoosiers should advance to the CFP Semifinal in style.

  • Alabama vs Indiana Prediction 3: Indiana -7 @ -110

Alabama vs Indiana Start Time

  • Start Time: 4:00pm EST
  • Location: Rose Bowl
  • Address: 1001 Rose Bowl Dr, Pasadena, CA 91103
  • TV & Streaming: ESPN, Fubo, Sling TV, YouTube TV

Indiana is looking for its first-ever College Football Playoff win in the Rose Bowl Game against Alabama. The Hoosiers are the nation’s only unbeaten team, but are considered somewhat of a Cinderella story. Regardless, they’re favored to advance to the CFP Semifinal.