When Gabriel Martinelli and Nicolas Pepe struck in injury time to give Arsenal all three points at Crystal Palace in midweek, it looked like Mikel Arteta’s side would go into the final game of the season against Brighton on Sunday with an outside chance of claiming a spot in next season's Europa League.
However, West Ham’s win at West Brom later that evening ended those hopes, with the Gunners now unable to finish any higher than seventh in the Premier League, whatever happens this weekend.
So, the Europa League is now out of the equation for Arteta’s side. But there is still the opportunity to qualify for UEFA’s new competition, the Europa Conference League.
To do that, they must beat Brighton and then hope both Tottenham and Everton drop points in their games, against Leicester and Manchester City, respectively.
That will be enough to see Arsenal end what has been a difficult season in seventh and claim the one Conference League spot on offer to English clubs.
What is the Europa Conference League?
The Europa Conference League is a new third tier of European competition, which sits below the Champions League and the Europa League.
It will primarily be for teams who qualify via their domestic league places, although it will include the cup winners from some lower-ranked leagues.
Only one team from each of Europe’s top five leagues will be included in the competition and no team will automatically qualify for the group stages.
There will be three qualifying rounds before the group stages, with the five clubs who qualify for the tournament from the top five European leagues all entering in the final qualifying round
The group stages will then feature 32 teams split into eight groups, with games being played on Thursday nights.
The winners of each group will go through to the knockout stages and then the eight group runners-up will compete in a play-off against one of the eight teams who will drop into the competition having finished third in their Europa League group.
There will then be four knockout rounds, with the final due to be staged in Albania’s National Arena in Tirana on May 25, 2022.
The winner of the competition will automatically qualify for the 2022-23 Europa League, providing they haven’t qualified for the Champions League via their domestic league competition.
What Mikel Arteta has said?
Even the Arsenal boss is unsure exactly what it would mean for the club should they qualify for the Conference league next season.
“It's a new competition, so I don't really know what will happen," Arteta told reporters on Friday.
“First of all, let's try to finish as high as possible and then we will determine, if we are involved, the best way is to do it.
“We have experienced in the last few years how tough it is being in the Europa League, given the amount of games you play and the short turnaround before Premier League matches.
“I think there is a lot of history there with teams that have been involved in the Europa League, and the negative consequences it has on the Premier League positions.
“We've tried to give it the best possible go, we came up a little bit short, but this club has to be in Europe.”
So, what are the possible pros and cons of Arsenal being in the Conference League next season? Goal takes a look below...
The pros - Opportunities for squad players and youngsters
Given the likely standard of opposition in the Conference League, especially in the group stages, it’s highly likely that Arsenal would use the games purely as a way of giving game time to squad players and youngsters, such as Folarin Balogun and Miguel Azeez.
Despite the large-scale changes we’ve seen at Arsenal recently, Arteta still has a big squad at his disposal and that could create problems next season if the club are only competing in domestic competitions.
Indeed, the Europa League has been vital in recent seasons in allowing Arteta to give players who have not been getting opportunities in the Premier League some badly needed starts.
So, if Arsenal were not in any sort of European competition next season, the Spaniard would find it very difficult to offer every member of his squad the chance to get some meaningful minutes under their belts.
And that could cause disruption behind the scenes, with some players likely to be left frustrated by their lack of involvement.
In that respect, then, having two qualifying fixtures and six group stage games during the first half of the season could be really beneficial for Arteta in terms of keeping everyone happy.
The pros - More money
Although it is not yet clear exactly how much prize money will be on offer in the Conference League, there will certainly be some cash incentive for the clubs involved.
It will not be huge, especially when player bonuses and travel expenses are taken into account, but every penny counts for Arsenal at the moment.
As well as the extra prize money, qualifying for the Conference League will also guarantee at least four extra home games during the 2021-22 season, bringing in more much needed matchday revenue for the Gunners after more than a year of playing in an empty stadium.
The pros - An extra opportunity of European qualification
As we have seen this season, securing a top-six finish in the Premier League is becoming more and more difficult. Being one of the so-called ‘Big Six’ is no guarantee anymore due to the emergence of teams like Leicester City.
Therefore, having an extra opportunity to secure a European spot would be a plus for Arsenal, with the winners of the Conference League guaranteed a place in the 2022-23 Europa League.
Clearly, Arteta will have his ambitions set higher for next season as he targets a way back into the Champions League, but having an extra fall-back option in terms of European qualification could be handy for the Spaniard.
The cons - A big distraction, for very little reward
As Arteta pointed out during his press conference on Friday, trying to balance the Europa League and the Premier League has been difficult in recent seasons.
And given Conference League games will also be played on Thursday nights, the manager would face similar difficulties next season should Arsenal qualify.
One difference would be that with the majority of senior players not expected to be involved in the group stages, they could remain at the training ground and focus on the upcoming Premier League games.
But there would still be significant disruption, as Arteta and his coaching staff would still need to concentrate on the Conference League and travel to away games, robbing them of valuable time with the squad.
Arsenal would enter the competition in the third qualifying round, with the two legs being played on August 19 and 26. That could be a big distraction right at the start of the new Premier League season, which gets underway on the weekend of August 14.
We’ve seen teams benefit massively in recent years from not having European football to worry about, such as Chelsea in 2016-17, when they won the Premier League under Antonio Conte.
But Arsenal would not have that luxury should they have the Conference League to worry about. And with minimal prize money to be earned and no carrot of Champions League football on offer, it would be a big distraction for relatively small reward.
The cons - A symbol of Arsenal’s decline
There would be no clearer sign of Arsenal’s recent decline than seeing them included in the Conference League draw.
After being ever-presents in the Champions League for two decades, the Gunners have now spent the past four seasons having to make do with a place in Europe’s second-tier competition.
That has been hard enough for some fans to accept, but there have still been plenty of big games in the Europa League to at least keep things interesting since 2017.
But the Conference League will see Arteta’s side paired against some very limited opposition from Europe’s lower leagues and there would be very little prestige involved in the competition, so it certainly wouldn’t help when it comes to signing key transfer targets this season.
Tickets for home games would also be very hard to shift, leading to large swathes of empty seats being on show during the matches at the Emirates Stadium.
The Cons - Extra games for players to get injured
While the majority of senior players would probably be given the evening off during the group stages, there would still be some important players involved who could potentially pick up injuries in relatively meaningless games.
Arsenal’s priority next season will certainly be on improving in the Premier League and competing for the Champions League spots.
They will need all of their squad to do that and extra games would increase the chances of fatigue and injury, especially with the large amounts of travel that would be needed to get to the away fixtures.
The verdict
As with everything, there are pros and cons to qualifying for the Conference League, but for Arsenal it does feel like it would be better not to be involved next season.
There really is very little reward for the distraction it would cause, with the extra game time for fringe squad members and youngsters the only meaningful benefit to Arteta.
The Arsenal manager may say that "the club has to be in Europe", but one season without continental fixtures could hand him a real opportunity to focus everyone’s attention firmly on domestic matters.
He would get all week to work with his squad on the training ground and his players would be well rested for each Premier League fixture.
Arsenal’s entire business model is based around Champions League football and having now gone five years without qualifying for Europe’s top competition, it feels that their best chance of getting back into it is by having a year without any European football at all.
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