Eddie Howe is in serious trouble at Newcastle - but the Magpies would be foolish to pull the trigger and sack struggling manager

A run of six defeats in nine league games - including dire losses to Luton and Nottingham Forest - has left Newcastle down in ninth, and a seemingly insurmountable 11 points behind fourth-placed Arsenal with four teams between them and a Champions League slot.

However, despite some alarming results, Newcastle are actually just six points worse off than at the same point in 2023. The problem they have is that a number of teams that underperformed last season, such as Liverpool and Tottenham, are back with a vengeance, while in-form Aston Villa and West Ham are surprise packages at the top end of the table.

The key, obviously, will be to arrest this slide immediately. This squad has already demonstrated it is capable of finding its groove, with their charge to a top-four place fuelled by a run of eight wins in 10 games at the back end of 2022-23.

The irony here is that Newcastle are paying the price for their extraordinary overachievement last season, and they now find themselves ahead of schedule.

Howe was only appointed in 2021, one month on from the Saudi Private Investment Fund's (PIF) takeover at St. James' Park, and comfortably guided the club to Premier League safety; the notion of reaching the Champions League as early as the following campaign would have been unfathomable.

But that was what came to pass as the Magpies secured a dream return to European football's top table well ahead of schedule. The problem now is that the bar has been set too high, with the expectation that Newcastle should be able to repeat the feat at this relatively early stage in the Saudi-backed project in the north east.

Indeed, the timeline Saturday's opponents Manchester City have followed since their own Middle Eastern takeover was surely the blueprint for Newcastle's new owners.

Remarkably, the current treble-winners only squeaked into the old UEFA Cup based on fair play in Sheikh Mansour's first year at the helm in 2008-09, and it was another two years before they returned to Europe's secondary club competition.

It wasn't until 2011-12 that they finally reached the promised land of the Champions League and, of course, it would be more than a decade before they would claim their first crown in the competition.

Although it's worth noting that even Sheikh Mansour's fortune is dwarfed by the unimaginable wealth of the PIF, Newcastle effectively secured a top-four place at the first time of asking having swerved relegation in 2021-22. If they are unable to repeat the trick this season, it should not necessarily be viewed as a failure.

Lofty expectations ultimately came back to bite Newcastle in that Champions League campaign, contributing to their current malaise and the pressure Howe finds himself under in something of a vicious cycle.

There was huge anticipation when the Magpies were drawn alongside European big-hitters Paris Saint-Germain, AC Milan and Borussia Dortmund in the so-called 'Group of Death', but any belief that a group of players that was vastly inexperienced at that level would - or indeed should - progress was perhaps misplaced.

Howe's side would bow out of Europe altogether, winning just one group game and finishing rock bottom as their thumping victory over PSG on matchday two proved to be a false dawn.

This wasn't a failure, but rather a sharp learning curve, and yet more evidence that Newcastle were well ahead of schedule in qualifying in the first place. Looking at the other glamourous, storied names in their group, they finished squarely where any level-headed football follower would have predicted.

Newcastle are among the plethora of clubs to fall victim to an unprecedented increase in injuries this season - at least in part a consequence of the mid-season World Cup in 2022 - and Howe has found himself working with the bare bones of his squad

Predictions that the club would have an extravagant, scattergun approach to the summer transfer market proved to be wide of the mark, as targeted acquisitions were made instead in Sandro Tonali, Harvey Barnes and Tino Livramento, perhaps with Financial Fair Play in mind.

That has resulted in a lack of depth, and Tonali and Barnes currently find themselves among nine absentees - with the former serving a long ban for betting offences during his time in Serie A with AC Milan.

It was undoubtedly an oversight not to add more quality depth in the summer, with a significant drop-off in quality from Sven Botman to Jamaal Lascelles and Kieran Trippier to Javier Manquillo.

Despite Newcastle's punishing schedule, Howe claims he is relishing the challenge, saying recently: "We want the games, we want the competition. We want the excitement of challenging for trophies. That’s where we have to be – not just now, but in the future."

He has made something of a rod for his own back, then; performances in recent defeats to Everton, Luton and Forest have not been good enough, and Howe is not beyond reproach despite the extenuating circumstances. Defeat to City on Saturday would make it four Premier League losses in a row and five in their last six games, and the pressure would ramp up on the popular coach. But what is the alternative?

None of the available likely candidates to replace Howe, such as Graham Potter, Antonio Conte or Julen Lopetegui, would come without their risks, and recently-linked Girona boss Michel Sanchez is surely highly unlikely to be willing to walk away from a shock title challenge in La Liga.

It's clear that the Geordies recognise that, in just over two years in his role as head coach, Howe has done more than enough to command the patience of the board - he will just hope the club's owner's feel the same way.

The recent FA Cup Tyne-Wear derby victory over Sunderland will have only endeared him further to the fans, and the manager evidently believes the 3-0 triumph in their bitter rivals' back yard can act as a springboard.

"Naturally, when you don't win for a period of time, confidence can be affected. Our players are the same as any others," he said. "It’s been a frustrating time for us and our injuries are still a big problem, but physically we look stronger. That extra gear was back. And we’ve not just won the game but kept a clean sheet. I think we are still a bit off our best but it was a step in the right direction, hopefully, the forward momentum can continue."

That has to be the message to the players; for now, Howe's job should undoubtedly be safe, but performances must continue to improve to avoid Newcastle's season fizzling out months before the end of the season. Given time, there is every chance they can find their groove and defy expectation once again.