Mainz will hope Bayern are distracted enough to confirm their top-flight status on Saturday. Wolfsburg will have similar hopes on 9 May.
| 2025-26 Bundesliga Relegation Market | Odds |
|---|---|
| Heidenheim | 1.02 |
| Wolfsburg | 1.20 |
| St Pauli | 1.67 |
| Hamburg | 10.00 |
Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
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Will Bayern’s shifted focus influence the Bundesliga relegation battle?
Bayern Munich and manager Vincent Kompany secured their Bundesliga title impressively, defeating Stuttgart 4-2 at the Allianz Arena on Sunday. It was fitting that Harry Kane scored the fourth and final goal to conclude another dominant performance, worthy of winning the division.
Die Roten are 15 points ahead of their closest rivals, Borussia Dortmund, who lost at the weekend to Hoffenheim. With their Bundesliga campaign concluded with four games to spare, Kompany's focus shifts quickly to two more ambitious goals.
It’s not the earliest that Bayern have ever won the Bundesliga title in a season. In 2013/14, Bayern wrapped up the championship on Matchday 27 with a 3-1 victory over Hertha Berlin.
There are some serious parallels between that season and 2025/26, as Bayern also went on to lift the DFB-Pokal and the Champions League that year. Kompany’s men are aiming to repeat the feat of Jupp Heynckes’ history-making side.
The 2013/14 Bayern side lost two and drew one of their seven remaining Bundesliga games that year as they chased the treble. This suggests they could take their eye off the ball in the league this year with identical goals in sight.
Last season, Bayern won the title with two games to spare. They won their two remaining games by a 6-0 aggregate scoreline. However, they didn’t have anywhere near as much at stake in other competitions last term.
On Wednesday night, Bayern visit Bayer Leverkusen for their DFB-Pokal semi-final. Victory here would see them reach a final against either Saturday's opponents, Stuttgart or SC Freiburg.
Aside from Bayern's bid for a domestic double, they also have a serious chance to secure Champions League silverware. After knocking out Real Madrid in stunning fashion in the quarter-finals, they now face defending champions PSG in the last four.
Two legs against Les Parisiens are scheduled for 28 April and 6 May. This will have implications for three of Bayern's last four Bundesliga fixtures against Mainz, Heidenheim, and Wolfsburg.
Backing against treble-chasers Bayern might be risky
Bayern Munich have only two days to rest after their DFB-Pokal semi-final before their away match against Mainz on Saturday. Mainz know three points here would all but confirm their Bundesliga status for 2026-27.
We can currently back Mainz to avoid defeat (Mainz +1) in the Asian Handicap market at a probability of only 52.63%. This seems low given Bayern's attention shift.
Die Roten also have just a few days to recover after the first leg of their UCL semi-final against PSG before facing bottom club Heidenheim. We can also back Heidenheim to avoid defeat by more than a two-goal margin at a probability of just 62.50%.
Bayern have only won by two-goal margins at home to Heidenheim in previous meetings at the Allianz Arena. Crucially, these wins also came during parts of the season when Bayern possessed significantly more motivation to win.
Following their second match against Paris Saint-Germain, they also have just two days to recover before playing against Wolfsburg in their penultimate Bundesliga game.
Wolfsburg currently sit second bottom and two points from safety. If they can remain close to St. Pauli before that fixture, they will hope to exploit Bayern's physical and mental fatigue. Wolfsburg won their last Bundesliga fixture at Union Berlin to maintain their chances of avoiding relegation.
Kompany’s men have more Bundesliga records in sight
Winning is a consistent pattern, however, especially for a team possessing Bayern's quality. They've lost just once all season. Kompany will certainly aim to break some Bundesliga records before the campaign concludes.
Having scored 109 goals so far, they have four matches to break the record for the highest-scoring team in Bundesliga history. The record currently stands at 120 goals, meaning they would need to average three goals per match to surpass that total.
If Bayern win their four remaining fixtures, they would also equal the highest points total in a Bundesliga season. This was set 13 years ago by Bayern, who, ironically, went on to win a treble under Jupp Heynckes.