The Indiana Pacers let the Oklahoma City Thunder off the ropes at Gainbridge Fieldhouse, leading to a 2-2 deadlocked series going into tonight's Game 5 in OKC. Are the Pacers a logical upset pick?
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NBA Finals Game 5 Odds: Indiana Pacers at Oklahoma City Thunder (Monday, June 16 at 8:30 PM Eastern Time)
Moneylines
- OKC Thunder: Moneyline @ -425 with bet365
- Indiana Pacers: Moneyline @ +325 with bet365
Spread
- OKC Thunder (-9.5) (-110) with bet365
Total
- Over (224.0) @ -110 with bet365
- Under (224.0) @ -110 with bet365
NBA Finals Game 5 Tips, Picks and Predictions
He Could Fall Just "Shai" of the O/U Number
Both teams were fatigued in the final quarter of Game 4. It was simply the OKC Thunder's nervy foul-shot execution that carried the night. Game 5 is a clash in which coaches will want to substitute more and keep their starting lineups fresh, giving SGA less potential minutes to overcome what could be another slow start. The Indiana Pacers will defend Gilgeous-Alexander desperately and hope that some other cager will have to score 30+ points to earn the win and a 3-2 series chokehold for OKC.
It's pronounced "Shay," not like "shy." But tonight's tipoff is an occasion in which several top names could come up a little shy of their player-prop scoring lines while the overall point total stays lit.
- NBA Finals Game 5 Pick #1: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under (34.5) Points (-105) with bet365
Pascal's Wager
Tyrese Haliburton's scoring touch makes him Indiana's linchpin in playoff games. If OKC coach Mark Daigneault has been observant to the trends of the last two games, though, then he knows that it's the Pacers' sneaky physicality that has hurt the Thunder's renowned defense the most as of late.
Pascal Siakam is one of the Pacers' versatile stars who can play small-ball with the best of them, but also creates a load for the Thunder's collapsing defense to handle in the paint without fouling. They say Haliburton's 20-point nights are the key to Indiana's wins, but that's more often said about power-forwards. If Siakam is going to drive like a power forward once he's gotten in the lane, Oklahoma City might begin to crowd-out his screens and treat him like the PF that he is.
- NBA Finals Game 5 Pick #2: Pascal Siakam Under (19.5) Points (-120) with bet365
Monty Hall's Tip on the Halftime O/U
You don't have to foresee a tit-for-tat first half and a 60-59 stalemate to think that Game 5's point total could exceed bet365's O/U (109) halftime total points line after Quarter 2. We think this is finally the night that if OKC stakes out a big second quarter advantage, Indiana will start to lose its patience and force fast-break attempts out of sheer desperation not to fall behind 3-2 in the series. If Indiana grabs the lead, OKC will accelerate its pace trying to get the mojo back at Paycom Center.
The only way the halftime O/U will fall "under" is if Oklahoma City chooses a more cautious game plan at home than away, and if both clubs' deep lineups go icy in the first two frames. It's like the Monty Hall Problem, in which given information gives you the win in two out of three scenarios, if only you choose the right door and hold on to it. There is no goat behind the halftime-over door.
- NBA Finals Game 5 Pick #3: Halftime Total Points Over (109) (-110) with bet365
NBA Finals Game 5 Preview
It was what sports betting sharks refer to as a "bad beat." The Indiana Pacers led the OKC Thunder by double-digits late in Game 4 in Indianapolis, the Pacers' faithful roaring as the hosts outshot OKC from the outside and frustrated opposing league MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. But as both teams grew tired in Quarter 4, the Pacers missed a key free throw. Then they missed another one, and another, and another. Indiana's chance to win or cover (+6) died at the stripe in a 111-104 loss.
If the NBA Finals are a prizefight, one boxer just flew off the ropes and pinned the other one in the far corner. OKC has gone from the brink of a potentially fatal 1-3 series deficit to having its own shot at putting the screws to Indiana with a 3-2 lead, just by winning Game 5 as a huge favorite at home.
The OKC Thunder are giving (-9.5) points to the Indiana Pacers on another wide spread for Game 5, set to begin at 8:30 p.m. EST tonight on ABC and ESPN2. OKC's (-425) odds to win are comparable to the odds that the Thunder were getting to begin the series. Those markets, next to Oklahoma City's freshly boosted (-550) Series Price odds to lift hardware, make sense with OKC returning home.
Some other Game 5 lines don't make quite as much sense. The syndrome of bookmakers observing a dip in effectiveness from their favored sons, then jacking up prices on supposedly "due" NBAers in the game to follow is still in evidence, as if Las Vegas gets angry and doubles-down instead of merely adjusting. SGA wouldn't have reached 35 points in Game 4 but for a series of intentional-foul calls late in the contest. For tonight's game, he's got "minus"-odds to hit 35-or-more against the Pacers.
Oddsmakers are at least acting stubborn about OKC's cagers who have outplayed their player-prop lines, as opposed to only rating the Thunder's superstars highly in all cases. For instance, Oklahoma City substitute Alex Caruso had a brilliant 20-point night to help the Thunder come back to prevail following the slow starts of SGA and other starters. But for tonight's Game 5, Caruso is only manufacturing an Over/Under (9.5) individual point-scoring line at bet365.
For the Indiana Pacers, forward Pascal Siakam's O/U point scoring line remains right where it's been at (19.5) following his 20-point performance in Game 4. Respect for OKC's top-rated defensive play is illustrated by Tyrese Haliburton's low betting action at (+210) odds to score a Game 5 double-double for Indiana. Haliburton produced a "perfect" triple-double game with no turnovers in the Eastern Conference Finals. If he scores a triple-double tonight, bettors will get a payout on (+2000) odds.
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