Fantasy Football Quarterback Draft Rankings: Projections, tiers, and average draft positions

The top tier of fantasy quarterbacks kicks off with the heavyweights—those with the best shot at finishing as the overall QB1 in scoring. Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts (364.56 points), Lamar Jackson, and Jayden Daniels (367.3 points) headline this elite group. All four bring a lethal blend of passing and rushing upside that fantasy managers have come to prioritize when spending early-round picks at the position.

There aren’t any real surprises here compared to their ADP. Fantasy gamers have finally come around to the idea that dual-threat QBs are where the true ceiling lies—and if you're investing premium capital in a signal-caller, these are the names you want.

Among them, Allen stands as the gold standard of fantasy consistency. He’s been a top-three QB in points per game every year since 2020, with finishes of QB3, QB1, QB2, QB1, and QB2 during that span. Last season, he finally snagged his first MVP award, despite averaging a modest 233.2 passing yards per game—his lowest since 2019.

What Allen lacked in raw yardage, he made up for with surgical efficiency and elite rushing production. He notched a 5.8% passing touchdown rate (his fifth straight year above 5%) and piled up 531 rushing yards with 12 scores on the ground. No other quarterback can match that combination of floor, ceiling, and week-to-week reliability.

Jalen Hurts has delivered elite fantasy production over the past four seasons, finishing as QB6, QB1, QB2, and QB5 in points per game. Despite dealing with a depleted receiving corps for much of 2024 and attempting just 361 passes (barely more than Daniel Jones), Hurts still turned in another impressive campaign.

Under offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, Hurts found new wrinkles in his game. The Eagles incorporated pre-snap motion on 50.8% of his dropbacks—a stark contrast to just 28% the year before, when they ranked near the bottom of the league. The results spoke volumes: with motion, Hurts posted a 116.6 passer rating (2nd in the NFL), completed 69.3% of his throws (10th), averaged 8.9 yards per attempt (2nd), and delivered a 7.3% touchdown rate (5th), tossing 13 touchdowns to just two picks.

Without motion? It was a different story. His rating dipped to 91.0, YPA dropped to 7.2, and his touchdown rate plummeted to 2.7%, ranking 31st league-wide.

One concern heading into 2025 is how Hurts will adapt to his sixth offensive coordinator, Kevin Patullo, following Moore's departure to coach the Saints. Another wrinkle: Hurts was the most pressured QB in football last season, facing heat on 40.5% of his dropbacks. While part of that was due to Philly's shaky protection, Hurts didn’t help himself—he had the longest average time to throw (3.06 seconds) and was responsible for nearly 19% of those pressures, a bottom-tier mark.

When blitzed, his efficiency cratered, just 46.5% completions and 5.2 yards per attempt, both ranking in the bottom third among starters.

Lamar Jackson delivered a jaw-dropping campaign in 2024—arguably one of the finest we've seen from a quarterback in recent memory.

Through the air, he was lights out: topping the NFL in touchdown rate (8.6%), yards per attempt (8.8), passer rating (119.6), and QBR (77.5). All three marks—touchdown rate, rating, and QBR—were the best posted by any QB since 2020.

He also led the league in EPA per dropback at 0.31, the highest since his own MVP season in 2019.

Jackson threw a career-best 41 touchdown passes while being picked off just four times. And if that wasn’t impressive enough, he tacked on 915 rushing yards and four scores on the ground.

Simply put, Jackson has roared back into MVP form—and he’s never looked more dangerous.

Joe Burrow (329.66 points) and Patrick Mahomes headline a mini-tier of elite quarterbacks who remain among the very best in the NFL but lack the dual-threat upside that defines the top fantasy QB tier.

For these two, high-end fantasy value hinges almost entirely on heavy passing volume and touchdown production. Without the rushing floor of players like Allen or Hurts, both Burrow and Mahomes need to light it up through the air to keep pace with the fantasy elite.

And while Mahomes is still widely regarded as the gold standard at the position, recent seasons have shown the risks of investing top-tier draft capital in a quarterback who doesn’t add much on the ground. After finishing top six in fantasy scoring every year from 2018 through 2022, the Chiefs signal-caller slipped to QB14 and QB13 in points per game over the past two seasons.

Last year, Mahomes posted career lows in several key categories, including 245.5 passing yards per game and 6.8 yards per attempt. His 26 passing touchdowns tied a personal low set back in 2019, and a whopping 30.8% of his passes came either at or behind the line of scrimmage—the highest rate of his career, and second only to Tua Tagovailoa.

Kyler Murray, Brock Purdy (306.15 points), Drake Maye (271.24 pts), Justin Fields (269.61 pts), and Dak Prescott (285.84) fall into a large, crowded tier of quarterbacks who offer fringe QB1 upside but lack a major gap in ceiling or floor from one another. With a clear-cut group of elite QBs at the top and a small handful of proven pocket passers just behind them, this group represents the "wait-and-see" tier, where value is dictated more by draft cost, matchup schedule, and personal preference than raw talent.

In one-quarterback leagues, if fantasy managers miss out on that top-tier crop, the smart play is often to double-dip from these next two tiers—building strategic duos based on fit and favorable weeks. Unless Mahomes or Burrow unexpectedly falls in drafts, it’s wiser to let the board come to you and scoop value as it drops.

Murray remains an enticing prospect on paper, his mobility and playmaking ability give him the kind of profile fantasy gamers chase for upside. But despite flashes of brilliance, Murray hasn’t quite delivered elite consistency. He's hovered around mid-QB1 territory over his six seasons, finishing QB12, QB5, QB4, QB9, QB10, and QB14 in points per game.

The problem? He hasn't taken the next step either as a passer or a rusher. In 2024, Murray scaled back his running, and his passing remained pedestrian, leaving him stuck in fantasy purgatory—good enough to consider, but not quite good enough to trust as a weekly difference-maker.

Matthew Stafford's (274.55 points) status is worth monitoring as the season nears, especially given his history with back problems. He's currently labeled week-to-week, but with over a month to go before kickoff, there’s time for him to get back to full strength. That said, the risk of a flare-up during the season keeps his fantasy stock capped at the low-end QB2 tier.

Meanwhile, Tua Tagovailoa's (274.44 pts) value remains tied tightly to his health. Miami went 6-5 in his starts last year and just 2-4 without him. Despite his presence helping steady the ship, the Dolphins' passing attack lacked its usual explosiveness, especially downfield—something that’s become a trend under Mike McDaniel. With durability still a major red flag, Tua remains a fantasy QB2, especially considering he’s never cracked the top 12 in points per game for a season. Even after returning in Week 8 last year, he ranked just QB13 through Week 16. Over five NFL seasons, he’s only managed one full 17-game campaign, making reliability a concern.

As for Jordan Love (262 points), injuries derailed what began as a promising follow-up to his 2023 breakout. After finishing as QB6 in points per game that season, he slid to QB19 in 2024 (15.6 PPG), thanks to a string of knocks. An MCL sprain in Week 1 sidelined him for two games, a groin injury forced him out in Week 8, and an elbow issue ended his Week 18 early. Add in a rocky opening schedule (vs. Lions, vs. Commanders, @Guardians, @Cowboys) and a tough fantasy playoff stretch (@Broncos, @Bears, vs. Ravens), and Love enters the year as a high-risk, moderate-upside QB2 option.