USMNT World Cup Predictions: Futures, Betting and Odds

Before the USA gets its campaign underway at 9:00pm ET on June 12th against Paraguay, we’ll cover the USMNT World Cup odds. A lot is on winger Christian Pulisic and manager Mauricio Pochettino’s shoulders as they face Paraguay, Australia, and Turkey in Group D on home soil.

USMNT World Cup Predictions

Find the USMNT’s odds to reach various milestones below: 

Odds are courtesy of US Sportsbooks, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.

Given the US has never been crowned champion at a WC, nor even made the Semifinals in the modern era, both outcomes are little more than pipedreams. However, there is decent value on the USMNT futures to make the Quarterfinals (+240), especially if other results go their way.

If the USMNT advances as Group D winners, they’d play a third-place team in the Round of 32. Then, they’d likely take on the Group G winners in the Round of 16. Belgium is favored to come out of Group D, but they didn’t even make it out of their group four years ago.

So, the US could end up playing Egypt or another beatable side in the Round of 16. In fact, given all games are on home soil, there’s also good value on the USMNT in Group D (+130). It would be a disaster if the US doesn’t qualify for the knockout stage, given the expanded format.

Our soccer expert has also broken down the Mexico World Cup Odds and Canada World Cup odds for anyone looking go deep into this summer's tournament.

USMNT Roster Odds and Prices

Landon Donovan is the only USMNT player ever to win an official award at a World Cup. Donovan won the FIFA Young Player Award at the 2002 tournament in Japan and South Korea. That said, we’ll take a closer look at some USMNT players’ odds to win an award.

No American player has ranked in the top three in goals at a WC since Bert Patenaude in 1930. While Christian Pulisic leads the active roster with 33 international goals, he only scored once at Qatar 2022. So, I’d stay away from his +5000 odds to win the Golden Boot here.

FIFA awards the Golden Ball to the tournament’s best player, and every official Golden Ball winner’s team has reached the semifinals. As it is unlikely that the US will make a deep run, the number of games played could hurt the USNMT’s frontrunner, Pulisic (+12500).

Only defender Alex Freeman is eligible for the FIFA Young Player award on the USMNT roster. With Mauricio Pochettino preferring five at the back, don’t be surprised if the 21-year-old Villarreal man has a breakout tournament. Still, a defender hasn’t won this award since 1982.

The USMNT futures with the best value are Pulisic to have the most assists, at +10000. Four years ago, Pulisic had two assists and was only one assist away from the joint lead, despite only playing four games. All things will run through Pulisic in the USMNT’s attack.

Notably, the shortest odds of any USMNT player to win an award belong to keeper Matt Freese (+4000). Still, six of the last seven keepers to win the award reached the final. Given the USMNT’s defensive frailties and Freese’s three clean sheets in 14 appearances, stay away.

USMNT World Cup Game Lines

The USMNT will come up against three familiar foes in Group D. They’ve played all of Paraguay, Australia, and Turkey in friendlies over the past year, so there shouldn’t be too many surprises.

Handicappers should be paying attention to the USMNT odds in the Paraguay match. The US needs to build some momentum to kick off the tournament. I like the USMNT’s -110 moneyline odds in that match, as they defeated Paraguay 2-1 in November without a full-strength side.

The US defeated Australia by the same 2-1 scoreline last October, and it’s another winnable match. Still, the USMNT’s -145 moneyline odds don’t provide as much value as the opener.

USA’s finale against Turkey figures to be its most difficult match of the Group Stage. Turkey, with talents like Real Madrid’s Arda Guler and Juventus’ Kenan Yildiz, has a better team on paper. Turkey also beat the USA 2-1 in a friendly last June, making this a tough call.

USMNT World Cup History

This marks the USA’s 12th appearance at the WC. Their best-ever finish was all the way back in 1930, when they finished in Third Place at the 13-team inaugural tournament. Since then, they’ve only reached the Quarters once.

Coach Mauricio Pochettino’s pre-tournament comments imply high hopes for an inconsistent US side. He recently said, “American people, it’s always about to dream, it’s about to do the impossible.” Most USMNT predictions have them bowing out in the Round of 16, though.

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