Freiburg last beat Bayern at home in the league in 2015. Julian Schuster’s in-form team have the best chance since then of taking all three points.
Best Predictions for Freiburg vs Bayern Munich
- Bayern Munich Moneyline and both teams to score @ +110 with BetMGM
- Freiburg over 1.5 goals @ +150 with BetMGM
- Michael Olise anytime goalscorer @ +120 with BetMGM
All odds are courtesy of US Sportsbooks, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
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Bayern to edge out Freiburg in a classic
Bayern’s away form has been less spectacular than their home form. They’ve drawn two and won one, including frustrating draws with Augsburg and Schalke 04. By contrast, Freiburg have a 100% home record and will fancy their chances of causing an upset.
Nevertheless, Bayern haven’t lost in their last seven Bundesliga games against Freiburg. Schuster’s side haven’t kept a clean sheet against the defending champions in their last 20 meetings either.
Both teams have scored in four of their last five games. Meanwhile, three or more goals have been scored in five of their last six match-ups. Despite Freiburg’s apparent cohesion and confidence, it’s hard to bet against Bayern. We’re backing Bayern to edge out Freiburg with both teams scoring at an implied probability of 47.62%.
- Freiburg vs Bayern Munich Bet 1: Bayern Munich Moenyline and both teams to score @ +110 with BetMGM
Hosts to score twice on Sunday
The home side have scored 11 goals in their first three home matches so far this term. That equates to the bulk of their 15 total goals scored in six games. Their record suggests the Europa-Park Stadion is a place where Schuster’s men feel comfortable to attack and play their natural game.
Freiburg have also managed to score twice in two of their last four home Bundesliga meetings with Bayern. This includes a hugely entertaining 3-2 loss to Kompany’s men back in April.
We anticipate a similar scoreline this time around. Bayern should still have enough quality to get the job done. However, their Champions League exploits against Arsenal may leave their backline a little jaded. We can back Freiburg to score twice at a modest implied probability of 40%.
- Freiburg vs Bayern Munich Bet 2: Freiburg over 1.5 goals @ +150 with BetMGM
Value on a refreshed Olise to shine again
Bayern will have the luxury of being able to welcome Michael Olise back into their starting XI on Sunday. Olise was suspended for the Champions League game with Arsenal. The French international will be fresher after the rest, which is bad news for Freiburg backers.
Olise remains the team’s star player in the 2026/27 Bundesliga. He averages 8.55 per game with FotMob, even higher than talisman Harry Kane (8.18).
Olise is the team’s top goalscorer with five goals to his name, as well as two assists. We can back a rested and revitalised Olise to score anytime on Sunday at a 45.45% implied probability. His scoring strike rate currently stands at 83.33%. This is comfortably our preferred value pick from our Freiburg vs Bayern Munich predictions.
- Freiburg vs Bayern Munich Bet 3: Michael Olise anytime goalscorer @ +120 with BetMGM
Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction: Freiburg 2-3 Bayern Munich
- Goalscorers prediction: Freiburg: Suzuki, Matanovic - Bayern Munich: Kane x2, Olise
Sunday’s Bundesliga clash between third-placed Freiburg and leaders Bayern Munich has all the makings of an absolute classic.
Freiburg have defied expectations so far this term to sit in third place, just one point behind defending champions Bayern. Julian Schuster’s side are seemingly there on merit. FotMob has them down as their third-best performing side, with a 7.13 average rating. They’ve also conceded the second-lowest xG of 5.6, only narrowly more than Bayern (5.5).
Schuster is likely to welcome Yuito Suzuki back into the fold for Sunday’s encounter, adding firepower to his side. Suzuki and Igor Matanovic have combined for seven goals and eight goal contributions across six matches. Florent Muslija (knee) is Schuster’s sole long-term injury absentee.
Bayern Munich came within a whisker of a historic Champions League win over last season’s finalists Arsenal on Wednesday. Harry Kane’s heroics in front of goal seemed to have got the win for Vincent Kompany’s men, but a late equaliser shared the spoils.
Domestically speaking, Bayern are still in a class of their own. They remain one of two sides unbeaten in 2026/27, scoring 22 goals and conceding just five. Luis Diaz remains sidelined through injury, while Kim Min-jae faces checks on an ongoing groin problem.
Probable lineups for Freiburg vs Bayern Munich
Freiburg expected lineup: Backhaus, Makengo, Treu, Lienhart, Ginter, Engelhardt, Eggestein, Scherhant, Beste, Suzuki, Matanovic
Bayern Munich expected lineup: Neuer, Laimer, Brown, Tah, Upamecano, Kimmich, Pavlovic, Olise, Gnabry, Saibari, Kane