With only a single loss in their previous eight Bundesliga outings, Leverkusen’s form is improving, and they could prove difficult to beat.
Best bets for Leverkusen vs Bayern Munich
- Leverkusen or Bayern to win & both teams to score (Yes) @ -111 with bet365
- Under 3.5 goals @ -111 with bet365
- 2nd half (half with most goals) @ -105 with bet365
All odds are courtesy of bet365, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
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Backing goals at both ends – and a win for either side
Leverkusen score an average of 2.08 goals per home match, while Bayern average 3.33 goals in their away fixtures. Leverkusen have scored in every home game this season, and Bayern have also found the net in every away game.
This makes backing both sides to score a smart choice. We are combining this with a double chance bet on either team to win.
Only two of Leverkusen’s home matches have resulted in ties, a stat matched by Bayern across their 12 Bundesliga away trips. This means a combined 83.33% of Leverkusen’s home games and Bayern’s away games have ended with a definitive result.
The probability of this outcome, alongside goals for both sides, is only 51.28%. It’s comfortably the best value play from our trio of Leverkusen vs Bayern Munich predictions.
- Leverkusen vs Bayern Munich Prediction 1: Leverkusen or Bayern to win & both teams to score (Yes) @ -111 with bet365
Possible value on less than four goals being scored
While both Leverkusen and Bayern are prolific in attack, they are also defensively disciplined. Leverkusen have conceded only 0.92 goals per home game, with Bayern matching that exact figure on their travels.
In fact, Leverkusen have won half of their home games this season without conceding. However, keeping a clean sheet against the league leaders on Saturday will be much tougher. Additionally, 80% of the last five Bundesliga meetings between these clubs at the BayArena have featured three goals or fewer.
With Bayern’s talisman Kane struggling for fitness and both squads likely feeling the effects of their Champions League matches, we expect a tighter game. That’s why we’re backing three or fewer goals to arrive at a probability of only 54.05%.
- Leverkusen vs Bayern Munich Prediction 2: Under 3.5 goals @ -111 with bet365
Expecting more goals after the interval
More than 68% of Bayern’s away goals have arrived after the half-time interval. They’ve also conceded the majority (55%) of their away goals in the second period of games. Interestingly, Bayern’s average time for scoring their first goal on the road is the 59th minute.
Moreover, they’ve scored 22 of their 40 away goals after the 60th minute. This suggests that Vincent Kompany’s tactical approach tends to wear down opponents as they tire late in the game.
Leverkusen have only conceded a first-half goal in 25% of their home matches this season, too. Therefore, we are backing the second half to be more prolific than the first, at a probability of 51.28%.
- Leverkusen vs Bayern Munich Prediction 3: 2nd half (half with most goals) @ -105 with bet365
Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction – Leverkusen 1-2 Bayern Munich
- Goalscorers prediction – Leverkusen: Kofane – Bayern Munich: Jackson, Diaz
Leverkusen have very little time to reflect on their 1-1 Champions League tie with Arsenal as they host Bundesliga leaders Bayern on Saturday.
Kasper Hjulmand’s team has begun to close the gap on the top four. They are currently in sixth place, trailing fourth-placed Stuttgart by only three points. They have enjoyed a strong run lately, particularly away from home, where they earned impressive wins against Frankfurt and Hamburg.
Regarding their head-to-head history, Leverkusen have failed to find the net in their last four meetings with Bayern across all competitions. These matches have often been intense; six of their last seven encounters have seen five or more yellow cards. Alejandro Grimaldo is suspended for this game, while the likes of Ben Seghir, Tella, and Flekken are all injured.
Bayern recently secured a dominant 6-1 first-leg win over Atalanta in the Champions League round of 16. However, that victory in Bergamo resulted in new injuries for Urbig, Musiala, and Davies. The latter left the pitch in tears, suggesting it’s far from a short-term issue.
The fitness of Harry Kane is uncertain. He remained on the bench during the win over Atalanta. While his calf injury is not severe enough to keep him out of the matchday squad, it is evident that he is not at 100%. Consequently, Nicolas Jackson may lead the line again at the BayArena.
Probable lineups for Leverkusen vs Bayern Munich
Bayer Leverkusen expected lineup: Blaswich, Tapsoba, Andrich, Quansah, Garcia, Fernandez, Culbreath, Hofmann, Tillman, Maza, Kofane
Bayern Munich expected lineup: Ulreich, Stanisic, Bischof, Kim, Tah, Kimmich, Goretzka, Diaz, Gnabry, Olise, Jackson