Both sides come into this EFL Cup 4th Round tie in contrasting fortunes in the league, with Liverpool beating Brighton and Chelsea losing to Spurs.
Best Predictions for Liverpool vs Chelsea
- Liverpool to qualify @ -118 with BetMGM
- Liverpool (1st goal) @ -105 with BetMGM
- Liverpool or tie and over 2.5 goals @ +145 with BetMGM
All odds are courtesy of US Sportsbooks, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
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Backing the Reds to get the job done
Iraola hadn’t won a home league game before Sunday. Cup nights have been a different story entirely at Anfield this season. Liverpool have beaten Atletico Madrid, Villarreal and Tottenham in front of their own fans. Liverpool beat Tottenham 3-1 in the previous round of the EFL Cup.
Chelsea arrive on Merseyside in poor shape. They lost 2-0 at home to Tottenham on Saturday, and debutant keeper Mike Penders scored an own goal. Cole Palmer is suspended after his red card. Joao Pedro is also a doubt, having missed the defeat to Spurs.
We can back Liverpool to qualify by any means at an implied probability of only 54.1%. This covers any penalty shootout too. This looks short, considering Chelsea are without several of their game-changing players in the final third.
- Liverpool vs Chelsea Bet 1: Liverpool to qualify @ -118 with BetMGM
Hosts to land the opening blow against the depleted Blues
Liverpool have hit form in front of goal. They scored 12 goals across three games before beating Brighton 2-0. Alexander Isak leads the charge, with five league goals in six appearances. He also struck the winner at Brentford.
Chelsea have conceded 15 times in eight league games. That is the worst record in the current top five.
FotMob rates Joao Pedro as Chelsea’s best performer at 7.74. His absence alongside Palmer removes their two biggest threats on Wednesday afternoon. The Reds have scored first in five of their last seven meetings with Chelsea.
We can back them to make it six in eight at a modest implied probability of 51.3%. This is likely the best value bet from our Liverpool vs Chelsea predictions.
- Liverpool vs Chelsea Bet 2: Liverpool (1st goal) @ -105 with BetMGM
Value on goals, with Chelsea unable to keep things tight
Chelsea’s matches have been anything but cagey in all competitions under Xabi Alonso. They drew 2-2 with Hull, lost 3-0 at Brentford and beat Bournemouth 5-1.
Xabi Alonso has no settled defence. Fifteen goals conceded in eight league games tells its own story.
However, the Blues remain a threat going forward. They have scored 17 league goals, more than Liverpool’s 11. The last Anfield meeting between them finished 1-1.
With Palmer out and Pedro still doubtful, squad rotation will be essential for Alonso this week. Such changes can disrupt defensive organisation and leave matches more open. We can back the home win or the game to be tied after 90 minutes, plus 3+ goals to be scored at an implied probability of 40.8%. The actual likelihood is closer to 48%-50%.
- Liverpool vs Chelsea Bet 3: Liverpool or tie and over 2.5 goals @ +145 with BetMGM
Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction: Liverpool 2-1 Chelsea
- Goalscorers prediction: Liverpool: Isak x2 - Chelsea: Welbeck
Liverpool and Chelsea lock horns for a place in the EFL Cup quarter-finals on Wednesday in what’s arguably the tie of the round.
Andoni Iraola’s Reds go into this last-16 encounter brimming with confidence. They defeated Brighton 2-0 at Anfield on Sunday afternoon. That’s a big win. The Seagulls have been near the top of the table and have already defeated defending champions Arsenal this term.
Iraola is likely to pick a strong XI for the visit of Chelsea, knowing the EFL Cup could be their best route to silverware this season. They are still without Conor Bradley (knee), along with Domini Szoboszlai (hamstring), Giovanni Leoni (knee) and Jeremie Frimpong (hamstring). Victor Munoz is also rated doubtful.
By contrast, Chelsea are frustrated going into this cup tie. Xabi Alonso’s men were humbled 2-0 at Stamford Bridge by London rivals Tottenham on Saturday evening. The Blues were favourites to win pre-match, but Spurs handed them their third league defeat of 2026/27.
Chelsea’s star playmaker Cole Palmer received a red card for two bookable offences against Spurs. This means Palmer will miss Wednesday’s game through suspension. Alonso is also without first-choice keeper Emi Martinez (jaw), as well as Pep Chavarria (knock) and Reece James (knee).
Probable lineups for Liverpool vs Chelsea
Liverpool expected lineup: Alisson, Kerkez, Araujo, Jacquet, van Dijk, Gravenberch, Mac Allister, Ngumoha, Barcola, Nyoni, Isak
Chelsea expected lineup: Penders, Acheampong, Gusto, Fofana, Colwill, Barco, Lavia, Palestra, Estevao, Quenda, Welbeck