Our betting expert expects an injury-hit Bayern Munich to struggle in Spain, with Alex Baena impressing for Atletico Madrid.
Best Predictions for Atletico Madrid vs Bayern Munich
- Tie No Bet - Atletico Madrid @ -111 with BetMGM
- Bayern Munich to score under 1.5 goals @ -105 with BetMGM
- Alex Baena 1+ assists @ +375 with BetMGM
All odds are courtesy of US Sportsbooks, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
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Home advantage is the key for Atleti
With eight wins and a tie from their past nine games in all competitions, Atletico Madrid will be confident for this one. They were too strong for Man Utd in their only European home game to date this term.
Since the start of the 2022-23 season, Atleti have only been beaten three times at home in the Champions League. Their European win rate at the Estadio Metropolitano across that period stands at an impressive 73%.
Bayern Munich haven’t been at their brilliant best in recent weeks. They’ve been held to ties in four of their past seven competitive outings. The Bavarians failed to record a shutout in any of those matches.
The absence of Vincent Kompany, who is continuing his recovery from a health scare, could also be a factor in Madrid. Atleti are worth backing in the Tie No Bet market, with an implied probability of 53%.
- Atletico Madrid vs Bayern Munich Bet 1: Tie No Bet - Atletico Madrid @ -111 with BetMGM
Selection issues to reduce Bayern’s attacking threat
Backing Bayern to score plenty of goals is often a profitable betting strategy, but they are currently short on attacking options. With Luis Diaz and Jamal Musiala already sidelined, three more offensive players picked up injuries against Dortmund.
Serge Gnabry and Ismael Saibari have both subsequently been ruled out of this game. Meanwhile, key man Michael Olise is a major doubt after also hobbling off at the weekend. The Frenchman has scored 10 times in 11 outings for his club this season across all competitions.
That could leave Harry Kane, who missed a penalty against Dortmund, leading the line in an otherwise second-string attack. Bayern did create 4.48 xG on Saturday, but they were far from clinical.
The Bavarians will find it tougher at the Estadio Metropolitano, particularly if Olise misses out. Atleti have conceded just once across their past five games. With that in mind, backing Bayern to score under 1.5 goals appears to offer value.
- Atletico Madrid vs Bayern Munich Bet 2: Bayern Munich to score under 1.5 goals @ -105 with BetMGM
In-form Baena to find gaps in visiting defense
With Julian Alvarez yet to hit form and Alexander Sorloth just returning from injury, Atletico Madrid haven’t found continuity up front. However, their build-up play has been effective, particularly on the left side of the field.
Alejandro Grimaldo has impressed with six goal contributions in 10 league outings from left-back. Ahead of him, Alex Baena is also enjoying an excellent run of form.
The Spain international has registered five goals and four assists across all competitions this term. Baena averages 2.5 key passes per game in La Liga. He also set up Pablo Barrios for a goal in the first minute against Man Utd on Matchday 2.
Baena has created a goal in five of his last 10 appearances for club and country. Given that, he offers value to create a goal against Bayern, with an implied probability of 21%.
- Atletico Madrid vs Bayern Munich Bet 3: Alex Baena 1+ assists @ +375 with BetMGM
Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction - Atletico Madrid 2-1 Bayern Munich
- Goalscorers prediction - Atletico Madrid: Julian Alvarez, Alejandro Grimaldo - Bayern Munich: Harry Kane
Atletico Madrid take good form into this game. Diego Simeone’s team have won their last seven matches in La Liga. Los Rojiblancos were 2-0 winners away to Levante on Saturday.
A return of four points from three Champions League outings means Atleti have work to do to reach the top eight. They could only draw 1-1 away to Stuttgart on Matchday 3, with Morten Hjulmand getting sent off.
Bayern Munich are one point better off in this competition. However, they were held to draws by both Viking and Arsenal in October. The Bavarians head into this game following a 2-2 Bundesliga draw in Der Klassiker against Borussia Dortmund.
Probable lineups for Atletico Madrid vs Bayern Munich
Atletico Madrid expected lineup: Oblak, Pubill, Romero, Hancko, Grimaldo, Barrios, Llorente, Simeone, Lee, Baena, Alvarez
Bayern Munich expected lineup: Urbig, Laimer, Upamecano, Tah, Stanisic, Kimmich, Pavlovic, Karl, Bischof, Davies, Kane