Our betting expert expects AC Milan to edge to victory past hosts Lazio in a closely-fought encounter at the Stadio Olimpico.
Best Predictions for Lazio vs AC Milan
- AC Milan Moneyline @ +105
- Both teams to score – Yes @ -105
- Rafael Leao to score or assist anytime @ -125
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Rossoneri to give Biancocelesti the blues
AC Milan enter this clash with clear momentum. Their two-match winless streak at the end of February is firmly behind them. They were held to a 1-1 draw by Cesc Fabregas’ Como. Parma then ended their 24-match unbeaten league run with a 1-0 win at the San Siro.
The Rossoneri bounced back with a 2-0 victory at Cremonese thanks to two late goals. They then dismantled Inter in the Milan derby with a narrow solitary goal triumph, cutting the Nerazzurri’s lead to just seven points.
Back-to-back clean sheets and maximum points have evidently lifted spirits in the Rossoneri camp. Massimiliano Allegri’s side will be eager to make it three wins in a row. They’re on a seven-match undefeated streak away from home.
Lazio have struggled for consistency on their home turf, winning only four of their last 10 fixtures at the Stadio Olimpico. The Biancocelesti do have quality, but they may fall short against a confident Milan side. Head-to-heads are rarely comfortable for Lazio.
- Lazio vs AC Milan Prediction 1: AC Milan Moneyline @ +105
Goals at both ends
Lazio have found the net in each of their last two games. That ended a worrying three-match scoreless run. However, they have failed to score in five of their last 10 Serie A fixtures, highlighting their ongoing consistency.
Momentum is building in the Biancocelesti dugout. The morale-boosting 2-1 victory over Sassuolo means Sarri’s men are without defeat in two successive outings. That growing confidence will drive Lazio to attack the visitors from the outset. They took a similar approach against Atalanta in the Coppa Italia semi-final first leg.
The Rossoneri rarely fail to score. They’ve gone without a goal in only four games this season – twice in Serie A. One of the other occasions was their Coppa Italia loss to Lazio earlier in the campaign. The Curva Nord is expected to return to the stands after previously protesting Lazio boss Claudio Lotito’s ownership.
Recent head-to-heads have been very cagey. Only three of their last eight Serie A meetings have produced goals for both sides. However, given both teams’ current form, expect that trend to extend to four games when they meet on Sunday evening.
- Lazio vs AC Milan Prediction 2: Both teams to score – Yes @ -105
Leao to shine at the Olimpico
Rafael Leao, AC Milan’s most valuable player, arrives in the Italian capital with two goals in his last four appearances for the club. Both strikes have proven significant. He first netted the equaliser in the 1-1 draw with Como and later secured Milan’s 2-0 win over Cremonese with a stoppage-time strike.
The numbers underscore his importance. The 26-year-old has been involved in 10 goals and two assists in 23 appearances for the Rossoneri. Nine of those strikes have come in Serie A. This accounts for up to 20% of the club’s 44 league goals this campaign.
A goal contribution every 153 minutes makes him Milan's most potent attacker alongside Christian Pulisic. Together, they form Serie A’s third-best attacking duo, with a combined 17 goals and four assists in 28 matches.
Against Lazio, Leao has registered four goals and five assists in 14 career appearances. In the reverse 1-0 victory at the San Siro, the Portuguese winger converted Fikayo Tomori’s cross to win the game for Milan. Backing Leao to make another decisive contribution at the Olimpico offers value.
- Lazio vs AC Milan Prediction 3: Rafael Leao to score or assist anytime @ -125
Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction: Lazio 1-2 AC Milan
- Goalscorers prediction: Lazio: Gustav Isaksen; AC Milan: Rafael Leao, Samuele Ricci
Lazio ended their dismal four-match winless run across all competitions with a 2-1 victory over Sassuolo at the Stadio Olimpico. Adam Marusic came off the bench and headed in a late winner. This was his first goal of the season. The relief was palpable.
That was Lazio’s first victory in the league since the end of January. Maurizio Sarri’s men remain in 10th position, 13 points adrift of sixth-placed Juventus. Time is running out for a top-six push.
AC Milan arrive in high spirits, having completed a league double over their city rivals for the first time since 2010/11. Parvis Estupinan’s first-half strike reduced the Nerazzurri’s lead to seven points at the top.
The Rossoneri now have to tackle Lazio at the Stadio Olimpico. That’s where the hosts eliminated Milan from the Coppa Italia last-16 as recently as December 2025. However, the visitors came out on top with a 1-0 win in the reverse league fixture at the San Siro earlier this season.
The Biancocelesti have found comfort at home, remaining undefeated in their last two at the Olimpico. Milan, however, carry the momentum and confidence of a derby win. On a night where the hosts will rely on resilience, the visitors have the quality to edge another tight contest.
Probable lineups for Lazio vs AC Milan
Lazio expected lineup: Motta, Marusic, Gila, Romagnoli, Tavares, Dele-Bashiru, Cataldi, Taylor, Isaksen, Maldini, Zaccagni
AC Milan expected lineup: Maignan, Tomori, De Winter, Pavlovic, Saelemaekers, Fofana, Modric, Ricci, Estupinan, Leao, Pulisic